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Most likely expansion outcomes - C Marlow - 03-02-2014 12:14 PM
I think the most probable outcomes for expansion will be very similar to what we see today. I think the P5 will stay intact as we see it today. I don't foresee the demise of the BigXII nor the ACC. It looks like all the schools in the P5 like their current connections. I doubt that four by 16 or five by 14 is the endgame based on current ties between the schools. The PAC is stuck at 12 unless the BigXII folds. It appears the Big XII schools like associating with each other, so I don't expect to see it fold. The ACC schools signed a GOR after numerous feelers sent to various schools from the B1G and BigXII, so those schools also want to stay connected. Plus, the ACC stays at 14 until ND commits, and I don't see that happening any time soon. The only P5 who may want to expand would be the BigXII. Only slam dunk candidate, if there is one, would be BYU. And that is a stretch at this point.
IMHO, I think P5 conf expansion is done. BigXII is the only one that might do it, but no current school seems to want that as of today.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Native Georgian - 03-02-2014 12:30 PM
I think the Big <12 will probably expand at some point, but they clearly are in no rush to do so.
I think PAC-12, SEC, B1G, or ACC only expands if a bona fide "game change" possibility steps forward (i.e., Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.).
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - john01992 - 03-02-2014 12:40 PM
i think the b12 will lose several members at some point. could happen tomorrow, could happen when the gor expires, could happen in 25 years.......
but that is the ultimate future of the b12 in some point in time.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - bluesox - 03-02-2014 01:26 PM
I think the big 10 and sec would like to add some acc and/or big 12 school's while the pac 12 would like big 12 school's. If the acc doesn't lose anybody than the target will be the big 12. I'm not sure if anybody can pry open the acc but i'd go with the big 10 able to crack the big 12 with offers to KU and OU. Also, have a hard time seeing texas happy in the big 12 longterm. The move that could save everybody would be a football only merger of the big 12/acc with 4 pods of 6 expandable to 4 pods of 7 with invites to cincy, uconn, byu and ND (playing 6 games).
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Side Show Joe - 03-02-2014 01:40 PM
(03-02-2014 12:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: I think the Big <12 will probably expand at some point, but they clearly are in no rush to do so.
I think PAC-12, SEC, B1G, or ACC only expands if a bona fide "game change" possibility steps forward (i.e., Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.).
I think the Big12 is still feeling buyers remorse from adding TCU and West Virginia. TCU can't consistently compete in the Big 12, and WVU is too far away from the rest of the league. They need to get back to 12 teams, but there just aren't any P5 programs in their region that would accept an invitation (Texas & Oklahoma have way too much power in the BIG12), and I don't think they don't feel any of the G5 programs would advance their conference.
If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Flying Bearcat - 03-02-2014 01:41 PM
Ask me after the Maryland v. ACC lawsuit.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Chappy - 03-02-2014 02:00 PM
(03-02-2014 01:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote: If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
I tend to agree. In a world where Memphis had been solid at football for the past 5 years, a metro-trifecta of Cincy/Louisville/Memphis would have fit nicely into the B12, leaving the ACC to choose between WVU and UConn.
As things stand right now, I don't see any major movement for the next 7-10 years.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - bitcruncher - 03-02-2014 02:04 PM
I agree with you guys. If Memphis were ever able to field a consistently competitive team in football, they'd be a perfect candidate. But I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for it to happen.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Side Show Joe - 03-02-2014 02:06 PM
(03-02-2014 02:00 PM)Chappy Wrote:(03-02-2014 01:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote: If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
I tend to agree. In a world where Memphis had been solid at football for the past 5 years, a metro-trifecta of Cincy/Louisville/Memphis would have fit nicely into the B12, leaving the ACC to choose between WVU and UConn.
As things stand right now, I don't see any major movement for the next 7-10 years.
I too agree. 7-10 years sounds about right. Time is needed for programs to jockey for positions before another major round of P5 invitations get extended.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - john01992 - 03-02-2014 02:07 PM
as for the b12.......
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - bitcruncher - 03-02-2014 02:08 PM
(03-02-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote: as for the b12.......Thank goodness you aren't the B12 commish.
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - john01992 - 03-02-2014 02:11 PM
(03-02-2014 02:08 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:(03-02-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote: as for the b12.......Thank goodness you aren't the B12 commish.
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
LOL. i have my reasons and have explained them before.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - brista21 - 03-02-2014 02:12 PM
(03-02-2014 01:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:(03-02-2014 12:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: I think the Big <12 will probably expand at some point, but they clearly are in no rush to do so.
I think PAC-12, SEC, B1G, or ACC only expands if a bona fide "game change" possibility steps forward (i.e., Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.).
I think the Big12 is still feeling buyers remorse from adding TCU and West Virginia. TCU can't consistently compete in the Big 12, and WVU is too far away from the rest of the league. They need to get back to 12 teams, but there just aren't any P5 programs in their region that would accept an invitation (Texas & Oklahoma have way too much power in the BIG12), and I don't think they don't feel any of the G5 programs would advance their conference.
If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
I really don't see them having buyers remorse. WVU and TCU both just happened to have horrific timing with going into rough patches. WVU does potentially have additional issues competing so far outside their own natural footprint. If the Big 12 builds a bridge out to them say UCF, USF, Cincy and Memphis for instance then WVU will start to rebound being better able to recruit Florida, Ohio and Tennessee. Its not going to help them with their NJ and Eastern PA recruiting where they've always picked off some good ones though.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Side Show Joe - 03-02-2014 02:23 PM
(03-02-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote: as for the b12.......
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
I don't think any of those options would ever get a serious look. When the BIG12 finally expands, the biggest factor in choosing programs will be if adding them benefits Texas and OU. TCU gave Texas and OU and easy road game between the two schools, in a talent rich region.
I still think WVU was a bad addition. I doubt the BIG12 will make that mistake again, so the Florida schools don't seem to be real options. New Mexico offers nothing to Texas or Oklahoma. They don't have a market. They aren't in a recruiting hotbed. They don't get the fans of Texas or OU excited. I like Rice, but I can't see Texas adding them to the BIG12, when they can schedule them for a OOC game any time they want. Plus, Texas, along with A&M, already controls more of the Houston market then Rice, just like those two control more of every major market in Texas. I can't see Texas or Oklahoma letting another Texas team into the BIG12. It just wouldn't benefit them.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - EerMeNow - 03-02-2014 02:28 PM
(03-02-2014 02:12 PM)brista21 Wrote:(03-02-2014 01:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:(03-02-2014 12:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: I think the Big <12 will probably expand at some point, but they clearly are in no rush to do so.
I think PAC-12, SEC, B1G, or ACC only expands if a bona fide "game change" possibility steps forward (i.e., Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.).
I think the Big12 is still feeling buyers remorse from adding TCU and West Virginia. TCU can't consistently compete in the Big 12, and WVU is too far away from the rest of the league. They need to get back to 12 teams, but there just aren't any P5 programs in their region that would accept an invitation (Texas & Oklahoma have way too much power in the BIG12), and I don't think they don't feel any of the G5 programs would advance their conference.
If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
I really don't see them having buyers remorse. WVU and TCU both just happened to have horrific timing with going into rough patches. WVU does potentially have additional issues competing so far outside their own natural footprint. If the Big 12 builds a bridge out to them say UCF, USF, Cincy and Memphis for instance then WVU will start to rebound being better able to recruit Florida, Ohio and Tennessee. Its not going to help them with their NJ and Eastern PA recruiting where they've always picked off some good ones though.
WVU football recruiting is the best it has ever been.....which is especially remarkable given the season we just had.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Topkat - 03-02-2014 02:34 PM
jmo.. the B1G and SEC have time on their side. When the money situation starts to separate them from the other conference(s)... movement will be made.
At this point its all about increasing revenue by adding to your footprint with a network. Otherwise, you are at the total mercy of your Tier 1 provider to try and keep up with the Jones, and the Tier 1 provider only wants schools that provide viewers for advertising revenue (which also will increase for the SEC and B1G as they add flagship schools to their inventory).
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Attackcoog - 03-02-2014 02:37 PM
(03-02-2014 02:23 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:(03-02-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote: as for the b12.......
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
I don't think any of those options would ever get a serious look. When the BIG12 finally expands, the biggest factor in choosing programs will be if adding them benefits Texas and OU. TCU gave Texas and OU and easy road game between the two schools, in a talent rich region.
I still think WVU was a bad addition. I doubt the BIG12 will make that mistake again, so the Florida schools don't seem to be real options. New Mexico offers nothing to Texas or Oklahoma. They don't have a market. They aren't in a recruiting hotbed. They don't get the fans of Texas or OU excited. I like Rice, but I can't see Texas adding them to the BIG12, when they can schedule them for a OOC game any time they want. Plus, Texas, along with A&M, already controls more of the Houston market then Rice, just like those two control more of every major market in Texas. I can't see Texas or Oklahoma letting another Texas team into the BIG12. It just wouldn't benefit them.
Yup. Tulane would be more likely than Rice. Tulane has the academic profile of Rice, but a bigger student body and offer the Big12 a new market and new quality recruiting grounds. Personally, I think the Big12 would move toward WV. Cincy and ECU would go a long way towards linking the conference with the island of W Virginia. That gets the B12 to 12. No need for more.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Side Show Joe - 03-02-2014 02:38 PM
(03-02-2014 02:12 PM)brista21 Wrote:(03-02-2014 01:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:(03-02-2014 12:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: I think the Big <12 will probably expand at some point, but they clearly are in no rush to do so.
I think PAC-12, SEC, B1G, or ACC only expands if a bona fide "game change" possibility steps forward (i.e., Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.).
I think the Big12 is still feeling buyers remorse from adding TCU and West Virginia. TCU can't consistently compete in the Big 12, and WVU is too far away from the rest of the league. They need to get back to 12 teams, but there just aren't any P5 programs in their region that would accept an invitation (Texas & Oklahoma have way too much power in the BIG12), and I don't think they don't feel any of the G5 programs would advance their conference.
If Memphis could figure out how the game of football is played, they and Louisville would be the best options. Just my opinion.
I really don't see them having buyers remorse. WVU and TCU both just happened to have horrific timing with going into rough patches. WVU does potentially have additional issues competing so far outside their own natural footprint. If the Big 12 builds a bridge out to them say UCF, USF, Cincy and Memphis for instance then WVU will start to rebound being better able to recruit Florida, Ohio and Tennessee. Its not going to help them with their NJ and Eastern PA recruiting where they've always picked off some good ones though.
TCU benefited from playing in the MWC. They didn't play a BIG12 quality schedule when they won the Rose Bowl. I don't think they have hit a rough patch. I don't think Patterson has lost his ability to coach. I don't think they have the same talent as the better teams in the BIG12, and I don't see that changing. I also don't think they can stand up to the grind of a BIG12 schedule. And, in the long run, I don't think they will be able to consistently recruit well enough to compete in the BIG12. I believe TCU's current situation is going to be the new normal for them. I believe these issues made them a very safe pick for Texas and Oklahoma.
As for WVU, I can't see the BIG12 expanding to 14 or 16 teams, just to throw a lifeline out to them. They appear to be stuck in a bad situation. As time passes, and their supporters become even more restless, they will probably seek another situation. I just don't see them spending an extended period of time in the BIG12.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - Side Show Joe - 03-02-2014 02:41 PM
(03-02-2014 02:37 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:(03-02-2014 02:23 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:(03-02-2014 02:07 PM)john01992 Wrote: as for the b12.......
ucf
usf
new mexico
rice
if i was the b12 commish that's who i would add
I don't think any of those options would ever get a serious look. When the BIG12 finally expands, the biggest factor in choosing programs will be if adding them benefits Texas and OU. TCU gave Texas and OU and easy road game between the two schools, in a talent rich region.
I still think WVU was a bad addition. I doubt the BIG12 will make that mistake again, so the Florida schools don't seem to be real options. New Mexico offers nothing to Texas or Oklahoma. They don't have a market. They aren't in a recruiting hotbed. They don't get the fans of Texas or OU excited. I like Rice, but I can't see Texas adding them to the BIG12, when they can schedule them for a OOC game any time they want. Plus, Texas, along with A&M, already controls more of the Houston market then Rice, just like those two control more of every major market in Texas. I can't see Texas or Oklahoma letting another Texas team into the BIG12. It just wouldn't benefit them.
Yup. Tulane would be more likely than Rice.
I disagree. Tulane is Oklahoma's Rice. Adding them would mean nothing to Texas, and Oklahoma can schedule them in OOC games any time they want.
RE: Most likely expansion outcomes - bullet - 03-02-2014 02:41 PM
(03-02-2014 12:14 PM)C Marlow Wrote: I think the most probable outcomes for expansion will be very similar to what we see today. I think the P5 will stay intact as we see it today. I don't foresee the demise of the BigXII nor the ACC. It looks like all the schools in the P5 like their current connections. I doubt that four by 16 or five by 14 is the endgame based on current ties between the schools. The PAC is stuck at 12 unless the BigXII folds. It appears the Big XII schools like associating with each other, so I don't expect to see it fold. The ACC schools signed a GOR after numerous feelers sent to various schools from the B1G and BigXII, so those schools also want to stay connected. Plus, the ACC stays at 14 until ND commits, and I don't see that happening any time soon. The only P5 who may want to expand would be the BigXII. Only slam dunk candidate, if there is one, would be BYU. And that is a stretch at this point.
IMHO, I think P5 conf expansion is done. BigXII is the only one that might do it, but no current school seems to want that as of today.
I agree. I think we are set for a couple of decades. By 2035 when the last of the agreements expire (and probably the 2nd Pac 12 and Big 12 contract), the media market will be much changed and things will happen then. But I won't venture a guess. It all depends on how things change.
Texas, FSU, North Carolina and Notre Dame all looked carefully and made the choices they made over the last few years. I don't see any reason to believe any will make a different decision 10 years from now unless something changes (media market-which I think will take longer than a decade for a major difference, O'Bannon case, concussions causing some schools to re-think football). So I don't expect changes in the P5 anytime soon. Now I expect the G5 to continue to jockey around and change over the next decade.