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+----- Thread: MBB: Quest for the Postseason (/thread-838598.html)
MBB: Quest for the Postseason - owl at the moon - 12-29-2017 08:53 AM
The top 12 teams in C-USA earn invitations to the conference tourney in Frisco (March 7-10). Historically, about 5 conference wins are needed to secure a berth.
The Quest begins this week on the road looking “up” at KenPom #7 UTSA and at #8 UTEP.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - MemOwl - 12-29-2017 09:53 AM
(12-29-2017 08:53 AM)owl at the moon Wrote: The top 12 teams in C-USA earn invitations to the conference tourney in Frisco (March 7-10). Historically, about 5 conference wins are needed to secure a berth.
The Quest begins this week on the road looking “up” at KenPom #7 UTSA and at #8 UTEP.
when our stretch goal is to make the CUSA tournament, we know that we have taken a step backwards.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Fort Bend Owl - 12-29-2017 10:05 AM
Might want to aim for less lofty goals this season....just saying.....
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - OptimisticOwl - 12-29-2017 10:14 AM
Ya outta have goals.
For this team, making the conference tournament seems like a reasonable goal. Making the Final four seems unreasonable. Winning one more game this year seems too low.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - gsloth - 12-29-2017 10:27 AM
Rice is favored in 2 games, going forward, according to Massey - hosting Charlotte and FIU - with 2 more near pushes (49% and 48%) - hosting FAU and UTEP. Massey Expected Wins going forward is 5.03.
Unfortunately, I don't think Rice's ratings have stabilized yet. They continue to trend down after almost every games.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Antarius - 12-29-2017 10:47 AM
It is unreal that you can be in the bottom 20% of the conference and still make the conference tournament.
I mean, why bother with a qualification requirement or heck, a tournament at all?
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - OptimisticOwl - 12-29-2017 11:13 AM
(12-29-2017 10:47 AM)Antarius Wrote: It is unreal that you can be in the bottom 20% of the conference and still make the conference tournament.
I mean, why bother with a qualification requirement or heck, a tournament at all?
I tend to agree, but lots of conference tournaments include all or nearly all the teams. CUSA is a bit more restrictive than some. I remember the last SWC baseball tourney was expanded to include all the teams, and Rice as the #8 won it.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - MemOwl - 12-29-2017 12:00 PM
I don't have any strong view about the proper size of a conference tourney.
My sense is that in general they are not selective, and exclusions are only made in order to create a manageable bracket; e.g, 12 is more manageable than 14 as it creates 4 byes rather than 2 and has 4 first round games, not 6.
It's just tough to swallow a low single digit wins team for 3rd time in 11 years. We are the ultimate chutes and ladders program. Unfortunately we can't get past 50 and we have a chute not on the original game board that takes us down to 7.
The summary of recruits in another thread looked encouraging. However the reports of our preparation and execution from game threads are discouraging.
It seems like we are going to conduct an experiment to see if it really is "not the x's and o's but the jimmy's and the joe's"
tangentially related, Ben Simmons is doing some interesting things as an NBA rookie. Recall he was at LSU in 2015-16 and they missed the tourney entirely. My sons saw Simmons at the Nike camp in Santa Monica in summer 2015--he was one of only two freshmen there, and the other also went to LSU. Lots of prominent upperclassmen like Darnell Valentine from Michigan State. and James Harden was in the building. The boys were so impressed with Simmons that they when they subsequently went to Vegas they bet on LSU to win the national championship. What we learned, I think, was that Johnny Jones couldn't coach to save his life, because it sure seems that Ben Simmons can play. And it seems hard to believe that a P5 team with Simmons can miss the NCAA tournament, but that is what happened.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Antarius - 12-29-2017 12:20 PM
(12-29-2017 12:00 PM)MemOwl Wrote: My sense is that in general they are not selective, and exclusions are only made in order to create a manageable bracket; e.g, 12 is more manageable than 14 as it creates 4 byes rather than 2 and has 4 first round games, not 6.
Better would be a 6 team. 2 byes and single elimination. I understand this isn't a C-USA only issue, but tt isn't like C-USA MBB draws crowds.. the revenue would drop from negligible to slightly more negligible, if that.
(12-29-2017 12:00 PM)MemOwl Wrote: The summary of recruits in another thread looked encouraging. However the reports of our preparation and execution from game threads are discouraging.
This is my concern. We seem to have a Bailiff/Braun strategy going on... recruit well and hope to god it works. When we had talent, we could hang with C-USA. The problem with this strategy is, on a good day you are still a bad team compared to the rest of the country. And on a bad day, well, that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.
The concern I had about Pera coaching Harden etc. was that it is very hard to know how good of a coach you really are. I mean, Harden is Harden.. much like Lebron and Tyron Lue, how much does Lue actually do?
This is season 1, so while the above may be a harsh assessment, I still am waiting and hoping for an improvement. We just have to see the improvement from the guys we have, the star rating of a recruit doesn't matter if we play sloppy ball.
NOTE: The above was a comparison to a previous data point. I am not intending to make this thread/discussion/reply about either of the aforementioned B's.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - georgewebb - 12-29-2017 02:59 PM
(12-29-2017 10:47 AM)Antarius Wrote: It is unreal that you can be in the bottom 20% of the conference and still make the conference tournament.
I mean, why bother with a qualification requirement or heck, a tournament at all?
Unfortunately, the NBA and NHL went down that road a long time ago.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - DFW Owl - 12-29-2017 03:48 PM
Basketball is pretty different from football in that even at the end of the regular season almost every team is theoretically alive for a national championship. In football half the schools are out of the running before they even play their first game. Granted a ~10 game win streak is not very likely for most schools to finish the season. Still, the current system basically makes the NCAA tournament a 300+ team tournament that is double-elimination for the top 40 or so teams in the first 3 rounds. I wonder how many conferences limit their tourneys...most do include everyone I think.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - OptimisticOwl - 12-29-2017 03:51 PM
(12-29-2017 12:20 PM)Antarius Wrote:(12-29-2017 12:00 PM)MemOwl Wrote: My sense is that in general they are not selective, and exclusions are only made in order to create a manageable bracket; e.g, 12 is more manageable than 14 as it creates 4 byes rather than 2 and has 4 first round games, not 6.
Better would be a 6 team. 2 byes and single elimination. I understand this isn't a C-USA only issue, but tt isn't like C-USA MBB draws crowds.. the revenue would drop from negligible to slightly more negligible, if that.
(12-29-2017 12:00 PM)MemOwl Wrote: The summary of recruits in another thread looked encouraging. However the reports of our preparation and execution from game threads are discouraging.
This is my concern. We seem to have a Bailiff/Braun strategy going on... recruit well and hope to god it works. When we had talent, we could hang with C-USA. The problem with this strategy is, on a good day you are still a bad team compared to the rest of the country. And on a bad day, well, that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.
The concern I had about Pera coaching Harden etc. was that it is very hard to know how good of a coach you really are. I mean, Harden is Harden.. much like Lebron and Tyron Lue, how much does Lue actually do?
This is season 1, so while the above may be a harsh assessment, I still am waiting and hoping for an improvement. We just have to see the improvement from the guys we have, the star rating of a recruit doesn't matter if we play sloppy ball.
NOTE: The above was a comparison to a previous data point. I am not intending to make this thread/discussion/reply about either of the aforementioned B's.
Same thing as was said of Guy V. Lewis.
Personally, I don't care if our coaches do it (winning) with great coaching or great recruiting, as long as they do it.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Owl 69/70/75 - 12-29-2017 04:10 PM
(12-29-2017 03:51 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Same thing as was said of Guy V. Lewis.
Personally, I don't care if our coaches do it (winning) with great coaching or great recruiting, as long as they do it.
Guy was a great practice coach. He developed a lot of coal into diamonds. If anybody saw Hakeem when he first got to the US, he wasn't exactly coal, but he was nowhere hear the player he became by the time he left UH. And there were another of others that he did remarkable jobs developing.
As a recruiter, his best attribute was his ability to see those diamonds in the rough. What people forget about that the loss to NC State, which was considered to be such an upset, is that NC State had by far the more highly touted recruiting classes of the two, but Guy developed his players to the point of being considered favorites.
And he was a horrible game coach. I did stats for UH for a while, and there were times when the whole stat crew would be like, "WTF is he doing now." He just made so many moves that made no sense.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - OptimisticOwl - 12-29-2017 04:19 PM
(12-29-2017 04:10 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(12-29-2017 03:51 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Same thing as was said of Guy V. Lewis.
Personally, I don't care if our coaches do it (winning) with great coaching or great recruiting, as long as they do it.
Guy was a great practice coach. He developed a lot of coal into diamonds. If anybody saw Hakeem when he first got to the US, he wasn't exactly coal, but he was nowhere hear the player he became by the time he left UH. And there were another of others that he did remarkable jobs developing.
As a recruiter, his best attribute was his ability to see those diamonds in the rough. What people forget about that the loss to NC State, which was considered to be such an upset, is that NC State had by far the more highly touted recruiting classes of the two, but Guy developed his players to the point of being considered favorites.
And he was a horrible game coach. I did stats for UH for a while, and there were times when the whole stat crew would be like, "WTF is he doing now." He just made so many moves that made no sense.
I just remember statements to the effect that he recruited great players and then rolled the balls out for practice. Glad to have a first hand account.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - texowl2 - 12-29-2017 05:33 PM
(12-29-2017 04:19 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:(12-29-2017 04:10 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(12-29-2017 03:51 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Same thing as was said of Guy V. Lewis.
Personally, I don't care if our coaches do it (winning) with great coaching or great recruiting, as long as they do it.
Guy was a great practice coach. He developed a lot of coal into diamonds. If anybody saw Hakeem when he first got to the US, he wasn't exactly coal, but he was nowhere hear the player he became by the time he left UH. And there were another of others that he did remarkable jobs developing.
As a recruiter, his best attribute was his ability to see those diamonds in the rough. What people forget about that the loss to NC State, which was considered to be such an upset, is that NC State had by far the more highly touted recruiting classes of the two, but Guy developed his players to the point of being considered favorites.
And he was a horrible game coach. I did stats for UH for a while, and there were times when the whole stat crew would be like, "WTF is he doing now." He just made so many moves that made no sense.
I just remember statements to the effect that he recruited great players and then rolled the balls out for practice. Glad to have a first hand account.
IIRC, Clyde was recruited only by Guy and SHSU. He clearly saw the ability. I would have liked them to beat NC St, the only time in my life I ever rooted for them, but his horrific game coaching did them in.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Owl 69/70/75 - 12-29-2017 05:37 PM
(12-29-2017 04:19 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:(12-29-2017 04:10 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:I just remember statements to the effect that he recruited great players and then rolled the balls out for practice. Glad to have a first hand account.(12-29-2017 03:51 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Same thing as was said of Guy V. Lewis.
Personally, I don't care if our coaches do it (winning) with great coaching or great recruiting, as long as they do it.
Guy was a great practice coach. He developed a lot of coal into diamonds. If anybody saw Hakeem when he first got to the US, he wasn't exactly coal, but he was nowhere hear the player he became by the time he left UH. And there were another of others that he did remarkable jobs developing.
As a recruiter, his best attribute was his ability to see those diamonds in the rough. What people forget about that the loss to NC State, which was considered to be such an upset, is that NC State had by far the more highly touted recruiting classes of the two, but Guy developed his players to the point of being considered favorites.
And he was a horrible game coach. I did stats for UH for a while, and there were times when the whole stat crew would be like, "WTF is he doing now." He just made so many moves that made no sense.
He and Carroll Dawson were best I ever knew of at sporting diamonds in the rough. In Carroll’s case he was a very quick study, so he could get to the bar.
Guy’s practices were pretty amazing. Lock the gym, don’t call any fouls, and the last five left standing start on Saturday. Reid Gettys once said that one of Willis’s practices was the most intense he had ever seen. From a guy who had taken part in many of Guy V’s, that was a very strong statement.
MBB: Quest for the Postseason - owl at the moon - 12-29-2017 07:43 PM
Took a closer look at the conference schedule. We’ve got 10 games (5 at home) against the bottom half of the conference (KenPom 200-299) and two more at home against the next two squads (150-199). Very manageable. 12 clearly winnable games in there. First one of those (although arguably the toughest) is tomorrow night on the road at UTEP.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - WRCisforgotten79 - 12-29-2017 08:39 PM
It's really difficult to say that Rice can go any better than 6-22, unless lots of teams overlook the Owls.
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - Antarius - 12-30-2017 01:05 AM
(12-29-2017 07:43 PM)owl at the moon Wrote: Took a closer look at the conference schedule. We’ve got 10 games (5 at home) against the bottom half of the conference (KenPom 200-299) and two more at home against the next two squads (150-199). Very manageable. 12 clearly winnable games in there. First one of those (although arguably the toughest) is tomorrow night on the road at UTEP.
True.. but that's objectively clearly winnable.. which doesn't typically correlate with what we actually do.
We've had over a hundred objectively winnable games in MBB and FB over the decade and managed to spectacularly **** the bed.. bad teams arent auto wins sadly for us
The question I have is .. what is our MBB strategy. How do we stop playing like a bunch of kids at a pick up game in terms on discipline? Until we solve this, sub 250 kenpom wins are fantasy and hope
RE: MBB: Quest for the Postseason - gsloth - 01-01-2018 10:07 PM
(12-29-2017 08:39 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: It's really difficult to say that Rice can go any better than 6-22, unless lots of teams overlook the Owls.
As I noted, their ratings continue to fall. Their expected wins, after just that one loss, are now down to 4.34. Losing more than two-thirds of a win after just one game that you weren't even expected to win isn't good. Massey still sees them favored in those 2 home games, but those other 2 close ones are down to 46% and 42%. Still in free fall.