It's hard to makes sense out of all the swirling rumours and scenarios, but I think if you put everything together, this is what we are going to end up with:

7 BCS bids. The Big East will split and add a couple C-USA programs (possibly Memphis and ECU), and probaby Navy, with Notre Dame figuring into the BCS mix as a part of the BE, playing a partial schedule. This will not only solidify the NBE, but also remove NCUSA from the table as a possible BCS candidate, as they will be gutted with literally all of their BCS potential caliber programs gone.

The Mountain West will get the 7th bid, upon expanding to 12 teams - add Fresno, Boise and UTEP. That should do the trick of getting them BCS caliber, and also dumping the WAC to Sun Belt level.

You'll have 4 non-BCS leagues - WAC/Sun Belt/ MAC/ NCUSA. Criteria will exist as it does now for one of those teams to make a BCS game, but the likelihood is nil that it would actually happen.

In this scenario, you really have no argument as to who the 7 superior conference would be, and as long as you give the other 4 the possibility of getting in a BCS game, then all bases are covered.

I really think this is the way it will shake out by 2010, and be the end result of all the shuffling.

Thoughts?