CougarRed
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Playoff Committee Bias
I went back an analyzed the Massey Composite the since 2014. There is a systematic under-ranking of the G5 rep.
In 2014, 38 polls (most computer, some human) agreed with the playoff committee on the Top 4 teams.
Averaging those polls, Boise came in 13th (vs Arizona at 11th). The committee ranked Boise 20th (vs Arizona at 10th). Boise beat Arizona 38-30 in the Fiesta Bowl.
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In 2015, 45 polls in the Massey Composite agreed with the playoff committee on the Top 4 teams.
Averaging those polls, Houston came in 12th (vs Florida St at 10th). The committee ranked Houston 18th (vs Florida St at 9th). Houston beat Florida St 38-24 in the Peach Bowl.
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In 2016, 46 polls in the Massey Composite agreed with the playoff committee on the Top 4 teams.
Averaging those polls, Western Mich came in 11th (vs Wisconsin at 8th). The committee ranked Western Mich 15th (vs Wisconsin at 8th). After PJ Fleck announced he was leaving before the Cotton bowl, Western Mich lost to Wisconsin 24-16 in the bowl game.
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Clearly, these other polls value VERY similar things to the committee, as they all agreed on the Top 4.
And just as clearly, these other polls (applying the same criteria for all teams) think much more highly of the G5 champ than the committee.
So it follows that the committee is using harsher criteria to judge the G5 champ than the P5 teams in the poll.
This is called bias. And it's costing the G5 champ between 4-7 spots in the poll year in and year out.
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We are seeing the same thing happen with UCF.
Four years in a row is not a coincidence, and it's time to call an end to the charade.
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11-22-2017 05:25 PM |
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