(01-31-2018 11:36 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  Just for the hell of it since I mentioned it in my last post, these are the games I'm most concerned about with my estimated probability of Cincinnati losing:

1. @ Wichita State - 65%
2. @ Houston - 40%
3. Wichita State - 35%
4. @ SMU - 30%
5. Houston - 20%
6. @ UConn - 10%
All others: less than 10%

If you add those percentages up, you'll see about 2 losses. Yeah, I realize that's not how statistics and probability work, but that's what my gut is telling me.

Interesting Odds... here's kenpom's probability of Cincinnati losing:
1. @Wichita State - 43%
2a. @Houston - 34%
2b. @SMU 34%
4. Wichita State 20%
5. Houston - 16%
6. @UConn - 11%
7. @ Tulane 11%

All others are less than 10%.

Personally I think the game at Wichita State is basically a coin flip, because I think they're a little better than their metrics. I think we're a little more likely to lose at SMU than at Houston, because SMU is a team more likely to get hot from outside. Everything else looks about right to me.