(01-31-2018 03:39 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(01-31-2018 02:49 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-31-2018 02:47 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  

(01-31-2018 02:02 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(01-31-2018 01:46 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Statiscally, it's on pace to be the 2nd best of the KenPom era (behind this years UVA). Will it stay that way through years end as the competition ramps up? Guess we will see.

Speaking of the KenPom era, it's unlikely that Cincy is a legit title contender. The worst offense of an NCAA champion was ranked 39th (UCONN 2014). The only other champions not ranked in the top 10 in offense were 19th ranked UCONN (2011) and 17th ranked Syracuse (2003). 10/17 were ranked in the top 5.

Right now the only legit title contenders based on KenPom history are Purdue and Michigan State.

The problem is; it takes a elite offense and defense to win the title.

Basically on 2 teams really fit that mold: Purdue and Michigan state.


So either this is the year that prescient is broken or we should just give Purdue or Mich St the title already.

Or this year still has a month of conference games left ...

Nova, Kansas, Auburn, Tennesse, UNC, WVU, Clemson are all within striking distance of Top 20 in each category.

I've also heard Top 25 in both was the cutoff. I'm not sure AndShock used pre-tourney numbers for his calc. KP provides them and that gives a better picture of where teams were going into the tourney. The title winner will obviously have their numbers come up from the 6 games played and won.

Pre-tourney numbers look to favor bad defenses instead of bad offenses.

Offenses worse than #20 (pre-tourney) that won an NCAA championship: UCONN 2014 (#57) and UCONN 2011 (#21)

Defenses above #20:
UNC 2017 (#25)
Duke 2015 (#37)
UCONN 2011 (#27)
UNC 2009 (#37)
Syracuse 2003 (#31)

If you switch the KenPom criteria to pre-tourney numbers, throwing out the 2014 UCONN anomaly, you need an offense better than 21 and a defense better than 37.

That gives you the following teams:
Villanova
Purdue
Gonzaga
Michigan State
Auburn
Kansas
UNC