(02-02-2018 03:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-02-2018 01:41 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(02-02-2018 11:48 AM)ken d Wrote:  In a content driven model, I could see the outside chance that the SEC and B1G could make major additions that would completely reshape college football.

Let's say the SEC poaches Florida State and Clemson from the ACC (leaving that league at 12) plus Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 (leaving them at 6).

Now the B1G adds the 4 Cali schools, plus Washington and Oregon, leaving the PAC at 6.

The PAC takes Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas from what's left of the Big 12, leaving West Virginia and Baylor out in the cold. Those two have little choice but to join the AAC, which welcomes them with open arms. The PAC then picks up the more geographically suited Boise State and BYU, now that the big dogs in the PAC are no longer around to block them.

Now is when things get interesting. The B1G and SEC no longer have any need for the CFP. And, they could go to divisionless scheduling, pairing members the way they want to be paired for a conference schedule. Each of them could stage an 8 team conference tournament, playing down to 2 teams, who would then be matched in a 4 team playoff ay the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl.

But wait, you say. NCAA rules don't allow this. You see where I'm going here. Who cares about those NCAA rules? Those two leagues are strong enough to tell the NCAA to pound sand. These 40 schools can make their own rules.

So, what about the rest of the FBS? After the M(ega)2, we are left with a T(weener)3 in the PAC, ACC and AAC, and a G4 (MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC). Now that the M2 has blown up those NCAA rules about postseason play, the T3 could have a four team playoff of its own in bowl season, pitting 3 conference champs and a wild card.

Basically, nothing happens, good or bad, to the G4. They are right where the are today. The T3, however, while still very viable in everything but football, are going to take a very big financial haircut from the networks. They still have value, but not $10 million per team value. Maybe they could negotiate in the $6-8 million range. They would be dwarfed by the M2 moneybags.

Again, so what? It really isn't about how many millions you get. Nobody NEEDS that kind of money. What matters is how much do you get relative to your peers. Your peers no longer include teams in the B1G and SEC. You can just drop out of that fiscal arms race and live comfortably within your means. You don't need to pay mega salaries for your coaches, because the ones who are really worth it have already moved up in class. Forget the gold plated toilet seats and laser tag arenas for your players. Learn to live comfortably in your new upper middle class athletic lifestyle, and try not to envy the haves of the athletics rich.

Some of your fans won't be happy, but there may be some who like the new reality.

This is an interesting scenario for the post-ACC-GOR era (mid-2030s on). I'd argue that the Big Ten is likelier to take Colorado over Oregon and the SEC to take Tech over TCU (if they bother to allow either). Abandoning divisions may indeed be the way for the M2 to go.

Leaving behind Baylor and WV means the Big 12 will likely survive, although will backfill with almost all the current AAC schools. After this, Tulsa and Tulane are the only remaining AAC schools, so they form a more regional conference by absorbing CUSA West. CUSA rebuilds as an eastern conference. The ACC moves Miami to the Atlantic to balance the divisions while Notre Dame leaves for the Big East. The depleted Pac-12 absorbs 4 Big 12 schools plus Boise and Colorado State (BYU stays indy).

"Tweener 3"

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Louisville, Miami-FL, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy*, SMU
Non-FB: Wichita State

Pac-12
East: Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Utah
West: Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State

G5

AAC
East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

CUSA
North: James Madison, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
South: Appalachian State, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern

MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State

SBC
East: Coastal Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, Liberty*, Troy
West: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State*, South Alabama, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

Independent
Army, BYU, Massachusetts, Notre Dame

* = football-only affiliate

An interesting question, to which I don't know the answer, is whether if all but two schools leave a conference (like West Virginia and Baylor) would those two be allowed to retain the right to use the conference name (and existing contractual benefits) and invite most of another conference to join them?

Seems like that would be a backdoor way for one conference to shed some of its members for whom they have buyer's remorse (like Tulane and Tulsa, for example) without having to follow their own league's rules to expel them.

I could see where that would work--everyone in the AAC force Wichita St, Tulsa, and Tulane to either vote with them to suspend the exit fee so they could hook up with the ex-Big 12ers and the trade off is they don't vote to disband the AAC giving the left behind schools a conference structure to rebuild with.