(02-04-2018 01:26 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  There is real evidence out the past couple of years that networks are skittish about committing themselves to big contracts in light of declining subscribers.

Most of that evidence is centered on mid major contracts which have been out. CUSA absorbed a major paycut while conferences like the CAA are having to pick up production costs to be on TV.

Where could things be headed for bigger conferences? Some guesses below.

B1G: Clubhouse leader. Will make things work by shifting 2nd/3rd tier rights around so the conference is making what they were before.

SEC: Performance has dipped from when they signed their TV deal, not withstanding the NC game this year. They might have to add FSU and Clemson to regain interest.

PAC: USC could be paid more if it controlled its 3rd tier rights. I could see more of a B12 TV model here in the future and an attempt to attract Texas. 1st and 2nd tier payout might be limited to 20 million per school, with USC/Texas going 40/50 million with private networks.

ACC: They may allow 3rd tier rights to be bid with a base distribution of 10-15 million dollars. That way FSU, UNC can cash in instead of having to subsidize Wake Forest.

B12: Whether they survive intact or not they'll be looking at per school hit in first and second tier rights which may drop to 10 million per school or less. That is why a combo with the PAC is a real possibility here.

AAC: Interesting to see with a deal up soon. There are two ways I could see their TV deal going. One way is if they were able to get BE money for all of their rights to the tune of 5 million per school by NBC. Another way is they get a 1st/2nd tier deal with ESPN for about the same money per school but are allowed to sell 3rd tier rights. 3rd tier rights are worth a lot to some of the school in the conference (UConn).

MWC: It doesn't seem like these guys are worth anything on a national platform outside of Boise State. They might be willing to accept a national deal for little or no cash BUT sell the third tier rights which is some cases can be lucrative (Hawaii).

MAC: These guys pimped out their football with ESPN for Tuesday/Wednesday games to the tune of almost 1 million per school. Nobody else is willing to do that so they should be good.

CUSA/SBC: Left to mess around with alternative distribution models like Facebook and Stadium for no cash.

Where could things be headed for bigger conferences? Some guesses below.

B1G: The B1G is locked into the BTN through 2032. No imminent changes there. Pressure on cable revenues could hurt the profitability of the BTN, though, but it may also be able to boost revenue through distribution on non-traditional media. Its recent deal with ESPN and FOX (and CBS for hoops) runs through the 2022-23 season and will be up for bidding in 2021. The B1G took somewhat of a gamble by not signing a long term deal but is obviously betting that rights fees will continue to climb, possibly because the prices offered for the out years did not reflect the B1G's optimism about those prices. The only schools that would make sense to add would be Notre Dame or an excellent academic flagship/flagship equivalent school in large population states, i.e. Texas, UNC, UVA, Florida State or Georgia Tech. These schools match the profile of the conference AND bring a potentially large number of TVHH to the BTN. Of these, Texas would be available in 2025-26, while no ACC member would be available until 2036-37.

SEC: The SEC's deals with ESPN and the SECN are locked in through 2033-2034, so no changes there anytime soon. Pressure on cable revenues could hurt the profitability of the SECN, but it may also be able to boost revenue through distribution on non-traditional media. The SEC's deal with CBS ends after the 2023-24 season. That deal is vastly undervalued at $55 million per year, and should increase dramatically in any scenario. The attractive expansion candidates for the SEC are UNC, UVA, Va. Tech, Texas and Oklahoma, which are all outside of its current footprint except Texas. Of these, Texas and OU would be available in 2025-26, while no ACC member would be available to 2036-37.

PAC: The P12's current deals with Fox and ESPN expire after the 2023-24 season. The P12 Network has struggled compared to other conference networks. Further, the P12 is far behind the B1G, SEC and ACC in terms of TVHH within its footprint. Look for the P12 to chase Texas, Oklahoma and 2 of 3 from among TTU, Ok.St. and KU to boost the value of its national TV contract and the distribution of the P12 Network. It is also possible that it could seek to sell all or a portion of its interest in the P12 Network to a third party, with FOX, ESPN and Comcast all potential bidders.

ACC: All of the ACC's rights are owned by ESPN through 2035-36. The ACC and ESPN are looking to boost revenues with the launch of the ACC Network in 2019. This is their big strategic move. Stay tuned. Any expansion would probably be directed at expanding or solidifying the ACC Network - obviously Notre Dame for football, but also possible would be Texas with a Notre Dame type deal, UConn to solidify the NY and New England area markets, Navy as a football-only partner for Notre Dame, or Villanova for basketball to chase the Philly market.

B12: The B12's deals with ESPN and FOX run through 2024-25. The conference remains unstable and subject to the whims of Texas in particular, and Oklahoma to a lesser extent. Both become even greater flight risks if the next TV deal doesn't keep pace with other conferences. The B12 itself, therefore, is likely to be in a reactive mode.