(03-25-2018 05:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(03-25-2018 02:17 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Question is what the WCC does.

Do they go all-in for one last run at remaining a relevant, multi-bid conference and add Denver, Seattle, and bite the institutional bullet on Grand Canyon?

Or do they waive the white flag and add only Seattle?

I don't think they add anyone. At least not for awhile, because they don't know what BYU will do or when. So you have to look at the timeline of the mechanics to get a feel for when something would happen.

2018-19 is the final year of TV contracts for the MWC and BYU. The MWC if they add BYU would be looking to do so for what is likely to be an 8 year deal. BYU on the other hand is similarly looking at probably a 6 year deal, wanting to align with the B12. These contracts and negotiations are not likely to be completed until the March or even April 2019 time frame. Only then will it be confirmed that BYU will remain in the WCC.

It is possible they tell thethe WCC earlier, but I suspect BYU will do a lot of negotiating and exploring of their options and their likely contracts before making a final decision. My belief is they will stay put because of football and because they want to see how Oklahoma plays out, something that will probably become clear in the 2023-24 school year. They wont burn any bridges and will agree to keep talking about when and how to make the MWC work, but it will be agreed it's a couple years down the road. But the timeline I laid out for next year still applies.

As a result the WCC will almost certainly be paralyzed for the next 12 months. Maybe BYU and SMC will give the OK to start the vetting process so a decision can be made in short order around this time next year. But in reality I think the political process to get BYU and SMC to agree to a consensus pick of the other seven will likely kick the can down the road to the fall of 2019 or winter 2020 for a final decision.

I agree the three schools they will look at are DU, GCU and SU. (I am pretty sure CBU is contractually locked into the WAC until 2023 and the NCAA would require them to complete the transition in the sponsoring conference to 2022 anyway.) Right now none of them check off all the boxes. If BYU stays, as I think they will, then SU probably has the least chance of the three getting in. It would be a very good idea for the Redhawks to win the WAC next year and pull a first round upset. None of the three had a top 100 RPI the last three years, or really even coming close. That makes it all the harder to win approval of BYU and SMC.

Right now I would guess they probably stand at 9 for the next few years, revisit a tenth member a couple years or so down the road.