RE: Big East Spilt
These are just my opinion, but I feel confident enough about them that I would start with them as givens in any Expansion/Split scenario discussion:
1. The only scenario in which St. Joseph's (or La Salle) is invited to the Big East is if there's a split and Villanova sides with the footballers, which is only likely to happen if Nova moves to FBS. Otherwise, Nova will block any other Philadelphia school from achieving all-sport membership. Forever and ever. Period.
2. The above also applies with respect to George Washington and Georgetown, only GW is an even longer shot because they're not Catholic and G'town isn't anywhere remotely close to being able to field a FBS team.
3. URI has the same problem with Providence.
4. Fordham has the same problem with St. John's, though at least Fordham is Catholic.
5. Xavier will never get into the Big East pre-split because of the presence of Cincinnati, but post-split, X will surely receive the very first phone call from the non-football half of the Big East. If invited, Xavier will push hard for the inclusion of Dayton, another Catholic school and their long-time ally/rival.
6. St. Bonaventure will never be invited into the Big East, pre- or post-split, because they suck, have no budget, have no arena, and have no market. The A10 wouldn't invite them today if they had the chance to do it over. The Bonnies belong in the NEC.
7. UMass will never be added to the Big East as a non-football member, pre-split or post-split, unless it's as a non-football member of the post-split football conference (and that's a longshot). The Catholic bloc does not want us, because we're a threat to move to FBS and we're not Catholic. I don't think that latter point gets enough emphasis. Every single non-football member of the Big East is a Catholic school. And take it from someone who is a fan of a program in the Catholic-dominated A10, the Catholic schools have each others' backs. They stick together. I think post-split, the Catholic half would sooner invite Holy Cross than UMass. Another program that's never mentioned but probably should be is Duquesne. Small budget, but they cover the Pittsburgh market if Pitt leaves, and they're a Catholic school. St. Louis does get mentioned and probably gets an invite post-split unless one side or the other isn't happy with the size of the conference footprint.
My best guess as to the post-split (non-football) Big East's wishlist, in order:
1. Xavier
2. St. Louis
3. Dayton
4. Duquesne
5. Holy Cross
My guess is they stop at 10 members, 11 if they get their top 3 choices. I don't think a non-Catholic gets in, and I don't think anyone with a market overlap gets in.
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