UofL07 Wrote:Who I'd pick and why

If I was the new hoops-only Big East commish, I'd pick up four teams to go to a 12 team league. 12 teams IMO would be the best possible number for the new hoops-only conference for a number of reasons. First, because the conference must rely solely on basketball for publicity, having a larger number of teams means that the conference will get more press in more markets. Second, having 12 teams provides a very stable buffer against down years. Because income is derived solely from basketball, maximizing the probability that the conference will have at least some good teams, even in down year, is important. Lastly, adding four teams allows the new conference to maximize their market potential.

With twelve teams, the conference could establish two divisions – a midwest and an eastern division – to reduce costs. All teams would play each other once (11 games) and would play each divisional opponent a second time (5 games) for a 16 game in conference slate. Divisions would also help reduce costs for minor sports.

So who would get the call to join the conference? The top two choices are easy as I’d add both Xavier and Dayton. Despite some market overlap, both teams have a lot to offer the conference. Xavier has a very rich basketball tradition and would provide an instant boost to the leagues reputation. In addition, it brings the Cincinnati market. Dayton on the other hand, brings the smaller but still valuable Dayton market and helps solidify the Catholic portion of the Cincinnati market. In addition, Dayton has outstanding attendance numbers (in or near the top 25 most years) and has a good basketball tradition. Dayton would instantly be competitive in the conference and would enhance the league reputation. The only reason Xavier would get bumped above Dayton is because Xavier has had more on the court success recently. However, both are solid programs and would definitely strengthen the perception and competitiveness of the new league.

The two final choices are a bit tougher as the league essentially would have two options. The more likely option would to add two Catholic schools to form a close knit Catholic only league. If the conference went this path, I think Saint Louis would definately be added. Saint Louis adds a large market, good minor sports, and would help the league if they want to set-up a midwest division. The other Catholic school is a toss-up in my opinion.

Midwest
Saint Louis
Depaul
Marquette
Notre Dame
Xavier
Dayton

Eastern
Georgetown
Villanova
Saint John's
Seton Hall
Providence
Fordham/Duquesne/Saint Joe's/Detroit/


The other, less likely option would be to add two private schools to form an all-private, most Catholic league. With this option you could add Butler, a very good basketball program, but you'd also sacrifice the "all Catholic" appeal of the conference. While I think the league would most likely consider an all Catholic option, they would give some thought to this route as well. If this option was taken, I’d take Saint Louis or Richmond (neither is great in basketball but both have very large untapped markets) and Butler (good basketball and large market in Indy).

If Richmond is taken:

Midwest
Butler
Depaul
Marquette
Notre Dame
Xavier
Dayton

Eastern
Georgetown
Villanova
Saint John's
Seton Hall
Providence
Richmond


if Saint Louis is taken:

Midwest
Saint Louis
Depaul
Marquette
Notre Dame
Xavier
Butler

Eastern
Dayton
Georgetown
Villanova
Saint John's
Seton Hall
Providence
Fordham/Duquesne/Saint Joe's/Detroit/

What's the point of a 12 team league if you have no football?

I don't know, ask the Atlantic 10 what's the point of having a 14 member conference, with 3 members in the same damn city.

EDIT: And I agree with the point raised a couple posts above that the hoops side of a post-split Big East would be destined to become a "high-major" like the A10.

firmbizzle Wrote:What's the point of a 12 team league if you have no football?

Hoops-only leagues face more challenges than all-sports leagues IMO because their media window is much smaller. As I pointed out in my post above, an all-sport conference can garner publicity/press from July through April because of football and basketball. Football pub starts roughly a month before the season starts and continues on until Dec/the start of January. Where the season is shared (November and December), football usually trumps basketball for TV and media attention because the later half of the football season feature bigtime matchups while the early part of the basketball season is usually made up of weaker OOC opponents. As a result, a hoops-only conference faces a tougher time getting press because they really only get pure media attention from January through April.

Because of this shortened exposure time, the hoops-only conference would need to maximize market space and quality to retain their elite status. Without the media bump from football (see the SEC v. A10 comparison above), they face the very real possibility of getting lumped in with conference like the A10 - a high mid-major rather than an "elite" conference. If you only have a 4-5 month window to showcase your conference, you need to ensure that a large % of your games make it onto TVs. One way to do that is have a lot of high quality teams. Another way to do that is have a large market footprint. Twelve teams, IMO, accomplish both these strategies much more effectively than a 10 team league and is the best shot, IMO, of the conference keeping its "elite" status.

gosports1 Wrote:I'm not sure if they have the financial resources to pull it off, but one eastern team to consider would be Siena. They play thier games in Albany. A city/region that seems to love CBB. The program has enjoyed some success of late. Its catholic and doesnt offer a conflicting market like some of the other possibilites do(fordham,st joes)

The problem with Siena is that their budget is dwarfed by other members of the Big East and by other schools that would be candidates for the Big East. http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/ is a government sponsored website that contains data on every institution participating in college athletics. For comparison, I pulled financial data on Big East schools and compared it to Siena and a few other schools mentioned.

Sample from Big East Basketball

Saint John's
Grand Total Revenues $27,388,198
Grand Total Expenses $27,118,532

DePaul
Grand Total Revenues $13,799,753
Grand Total Expenses $13,799,753

Georgetown
Grand Total Revenues $27,358,934
Grand Total Expenses $27,358,934

Providence
Grand Total Revenues $15,358,018
Grand Total Expenses $15,358,018


Comparison Group

Xavier
Grand Total Revenues $18,538,464
Grand Total Expenses $11,437,131

Dayton
Grand Total Revenues $16,799,536
Grand Total Expenses $16,078,493

Butler
Grand Total Revenues $10,235,838
Grand Total Expenses $10,235,838

Siena
Grand Total Revenues $8,596,123
Grand Total Expenses $8,336,350

I don't understand the worry over a split. The basketball schools can still schedule and contract OOC games with the football schools and still keep a lot of revenue from TV.

Someone mentioned the new Orlando Magic arena...well...it's already being talked about for NCAA tourny rounds. But a conference tourney could fit just as well in UCF's new arena. It fits 10k and is state of the art that provides a lot of corporate suites to boot.

Goldenbuc Wrote:I don't understand the worry over a split. The basketball schools can still schedule and contract OOC games with the football schools and still keep a lot of revenue from TV.

Someone mentioned the new Orlando Magic arena...well...it's already being talked about for NCAA tourny rounds. But a conference tourney could fit just as well in UCF's new arena. It fits 10k and is state of the art that provides a lot of corporate suites to boot.

OOC games aren't the same - it's all about the perception of being in one of the big six conferences. The existence of the NCAA Tournament masks the fact that the financial gulf between the BCS conferences and the rest of the conferences is just as large in BB as it is in FB (we just get to see a couple of upsets every year in the first couple of rounds and maybe a George Mason once a generation, so everyone all of the sudden thinks that it's a "fair" and equitable system, when it really isn't). If you're in the "haves" category, you're not going to willingly move to the "have-nots" level. That's why the basketball schools care as much about the prospect of a split as any FB school - the hybrid BE structure is what differentiates them from the A-10 and other "high major" conferences.

Frank the Tank Wrote:That's why the basketball schools care as much about the prospect of a split as any FB school - the hybrid BE structure is what differentiates them from the A-10 and other "high major" conferences.

Pretty much spot on IMO

A Look at the Current Conference

Currently, the Big East consists of seventeen Universities (16 full-time and 1 associate) in the northeastern, southeastern and midwestern United States. For football, eight members play FBS football within the conference (Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Syracuse), one plays football as a FBS independent (Notre Dame), and two play football at the FCS level (Georgetown and Villanova). In basketball, all members except South Florida have been to a final four and several rank in the top 50 all-time win list.

Seven Big East Conference members are located in the top 12 media markets (DMAs), and 12 members are located in the top 34, covering over 25 percent of all U.S. markets – by far, the largest coverage of any conference. The 2008-09 academic year marks the third of a six-year agreement between the Big East Conference and ESPN, Inc. for men's and women's basketball and the second of a six-year term for football. The contract with ESPN is estimated to be worth $250 million and its provisions are summarized below:

Breakdown: BIG EAST football Games on TV:
• A minimum of 17 home games involving BIG EAST Conference teams will be televised on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2, including four Thursday night games and two Sunday night games on ESPN or ESPN2.
• At least one conference game will be a part of ESPN’s Saturday Prime Time package and two games – one on ABC or ESPN, the other on ESPN2 – will be on Championship Saturday in December.

Breakdown: BIG EAST Men’s Basketball Games on TV:
• Minimum 60 games on ESPN or ESPN2
• 49 regular season games – 41 conference and eight home non-conference
• 11 BIG EAST Championship games
• 110 additional regular season games broadcast on the remaining ESPN platforms
• 80 games on ESPN Regional (66 conference and 14 home non-conference)
• 30 conference games on ESPNU/ESPN360
• Minimum of 10 conference or non-conference games on CBS
The above gives the BIG EAST a minimum grand total of 180 television games each year.
The BIG EAST will continue to be featured each week during the conference season on ESPN’s Big Monday. A new element to the agreement will allow ESPN to also feature a BIG EAST Conference match up on Thursday each week. The agreement also provides that each BIG EAST team have a minimum of 10 games telecast on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic or ERT.

Breakdown: BIG EAST Woman’s Basketball Games on TV:
• 11 guaranteed annual average appearances on ESPN or ESPN2
• 15 appearances annually involving league teams on ESPN network

Shown below is a summary of the media markets covered by the Big East. Teams located within top 12 DMA are denoted by *. Teams located within top 34 DMA are denoted by **.

Pittsburgh**
Rutgers*
Syracuse
Connecticut**
West Virginia
Cincinnati**
Louisville
South Florida*
DePaul*
Marquette**
Georgetown*
Providence**
Seton Hall*
St. Johns*
Villanova*
Notre Dame


What a split would mean – Football perspective

If the Big East football schools broke off to form a new conference, the biggest challenge facing them would be market presence. As is apparent from the list given above, basketball schools account for five of the seven top 12 DMAs located within the conference. Basketball school account for seven of the twelve top 34 DMAs located within the conference. In addition, the Big East is also disadvantaged by its small number of flagship “state schools”. Outside of UConn, Rutgers, and WVU, the other schools draw fans and media attention primarily from their own market rather than state-wide.

It can be argued that Rutgers, Saint John’s, and Seton Hall all overlap in the New York market. This is true to an extent; however, it can also be argued that SJU and Seton Hall draw much more attention than Rutgers basketball within the New York market. Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Chicago, on the other hand, have no overlap with football BE schools and would be completely lost in the event of a split.

Thus, any split between football and basketball schools is going to result in a huge market presence reduction. As a result, football schools with be looking at smaller contracts from ESPN and less exposure for basketball. When discussing a Big East split, one must keep in mind that basketball, not football, is the economic driver of the Big East conference. Could an all-sport conference with a much smaller market presence and smaller financial resources remain a viable power conference?


What a split would mean – Basketball perspective

Unlike the football schools, the basketball schools would still retain a large television market. New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Providence, and Milwaukee would all be large markets within the basketball conference’s footprint. The loss of the Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Cincinnati markets would hurt some, but expansion teams like Xavier could help alleviate the loss.

On the other hand, a basketball conference faces challenges that all-sport conferences do not face. While it is true that basketball is the economic driver of the Big East conference, part of the value of the current Big East is derived from football. Under the current hybrid set-up, the conference gets publicity year round. Football gets the Big East name in the press from late summer through December/January while basketball garners attention primarily from December to March. Without football, a conference’s media spotlight is greatly reduced. Thus, a basketball only conference might receive less media attention overall than an all-sport conference and they might end up on the same level as the A-10 (i.e. a good basketball conference but one that doesn’t receive a ton of publicity).

What does this mean for a split?

Two things can be ascertained from perspectives posted above. First, any split is going to be a huge financial gamble. Football schools will lose market presence and thus bargaining power with ESPN and other broadcasters. Basketball schools will lose the year round expsoure the Big East currently enjoys. Second, additions to either conference must either bring large media markets and/or marketability. Football schools would need to substantially increased their market share or add teams that can bring a lot of national attention (ND for example) to increase contract payout from ESPN and other broadcastors. Because their media spotlight is smaller, basketball schools may want to add a few large market schools (Xavier in Cincy, Dunquesne in Pitt) to maximize their exposure.

With that, I'd like to run through a few possible split scenarios for a new all-sport conference.

Expansion Possibility #1 - Add the best of C-USA

Under this scenario, the new conference would expand to 12 teams and membership would be extended to ECU, UCF, Memphis, Temple

Benefits
+ ECU would boost conference football and baseball
+ ECU has a strong fanbase and travels well to bowl games
+ Memphis adds a top 50 market (Memphis)
+ Memphis adds a bowl game (Liberty) for the conference
+ Memphis would improve conference basketball and provide rivalries
+ UCF has shown a dedication to athletics
+ UCF has a large study body and would provide rivalry with USF
+ UCF is in a top 25 market (Orlando)
+ Temple provides a top 5 market (Philadelphia)

Negatives
- ECU would not provide a substainal market for the conference.
- ECU basketball would water down the conference
- Memphis' market is barely in the top 50 (ranked 48th)
- Memphis has not shown a committment to football
- UCF doesn't have much football transition and is unproven
- UCF basketball would water down the conference
- Temple is not dedicated to improving athletics and would hurt the conference's SOS.


Expansion #2 - Add the markets

Under this scenario, the new conference would expand to 12 teams and membership would be extended to UMass*, Delaware*, Memphis, and UCF

Benefits
+ UMass adds a top 10 market (Boston)
+ UMass has a good history of athletic preformance
+ BC is only college competition in MA.
+ Memphis adds a top 50 market (Memphis)
+ Memphis adds a bowl game (Liberty) for the conference
+ Memphis would improve conference basketball and provide rivalries
+ UCF has shown a dedication to athletics
+ UCF has a large study body and would provide rivalry with USF
+ UCF is in a top 25 market (Oralando)
+ Delaware would provide part of a top 5 market (Philadelphia)
+ Not a whole lot of college football competition.

Negatives
- UMass isn't FBS and would have growing pains
- UMass would need substantial improvement in coaching/facilities
- UMass would need to substantial increase their athletic budget
- Delaware isn't FBS and would have growing pains
- Delaware would need substantial improvement in coaching/facilities
- Delaware would need to substantial increase their athletic budget
- Memphis' market is barely in the top 50 (ranked 48th)
- Memphis has not shown a committment to football
- UCF doesn't have much football transition and is unproven
- UCF basketball would water down the conference


Expansion #3 - Hybrid

Keep Georgetown and Villanova but add two more football schools.

Anyone else have any input into this matter?

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?S=78&F=1408&T=3580942&P=1

Here are some UNC fans view of expansion

Sure:
BE split and adds BC, PENNST,Maryland and ND
Vandy and Temple to ACC to replace BC and UMD
Memphis replaces Vandy in SEC
ECU goes to SEC to replace ARKANSAS
Arkansas goes to B12 to replace Mizzou
Mizzou to B10 to replace PSU
Nebraska to B10 to create 12 TEAM
Boise St or Utah to B12 TO replace Neb
BYU and either UTAH/Boise ST TO pac 12

a NEW FB only conference formed in east
UCF, UMASS, DELAWARE, GA ST, CHARLOTTE, ARMY, NAVY AND ???? pick (richmond, jmu,buffalo,gmu,uri, bryant,holy cross)

Nobody said it had to be realistic

UofL07 Wrote:Here are some UNC fans view of expansion

Here's another one:

UCF and St. Louis are the best options if you want to go for football expansion. Memphis and St. Louis are the best if you want to go basketball. A split makes no sense; if anything, schools should be voted out before that ever happens.

Either way I think you could see some events stemming from a BE expansion. Hopefully, for UMass, Charlotte, and Temple's sake, it's a CAA split with FBS aspirations.

Anyway, whoever the BE expands with, UCF or Memphis, I think LaTech would get the C-USA invite. Unless C-USA could get a waiver to hold a title game with 11 members until Charlotte football moved up.

Why I don’t expect a split

I think the market footprint and the financial benefits of the current Big East are the glue that is holding the conference together. After looking at the current market footprint and the options that would be available post-split, I believe the presidents came to the conclusion that the current 16-team hybrid league is the best possible configuration in terms of profit and exposure for the respective members of the conference. Adding mid-level market teams like Memphis or depending on large market teams to upgrade (UMass, Dalaware, Temple to improve) is a huge financial gamble to take. You may end up with a better contract after a few years or you may be left holding the keys to a horrific failure. IMO, this is why a split is unlikely for the time being. The football schools have looked at the markets they would lose and the markets they could gain and decided that a new all-sport conference would be worse off in terms of finances, TV contracts, etc than the current 8 team partnership.


Could a split still happen?

I believe that a split will inevitably happen at some point in the future. The current hybrid set-up faces several challenges:

- Football scheduling. Because the conference plays only seven conference games, Big East teams must schedule 5 OOC games every year. With larger programs scheduling 7-8 home games a year and shelling out major cash for “one-and-dones” contracts, this issue is only going to continue to get worse.

- Unbalanced basketball schedule. The Big East has too many teams for a double round robin schedule but not enough teams for a single round robin style format. Thus, you end up with a single round robin + 3 extra conference games each year. As a result, some teams get much harder conference schedules while others get much easier conference schedules.

- Notre Dame’s status in the league. The Big East dodged a major bullet this year after ND finished 6-6 and was unable to take the Sun Bowl. Had that event happened, a 7-5 Notre Dame team would have bumped out a 9-3 Pitt team who beat them at Notre Dame. Add in the fact that Notre Dame was 0-2 against the Big East this season and you would have had a major uproar in the media, and among Big East fans. Unfortunately, the conference is not going to dodge this mess every time it comes up and at some point, Notre Dame will begin taking Big East bowls games. There is also the issue of Notre Dame “offering” to schedule a certain number of Big East teams per year. Because Notre Dame refuses to schedule some Big East teams (Louisville, Cincy, etc) and because they want to schedule teams on there own terms (neutral sites in some cases), I think the ND scheduling issue is going to cause some issues in the future.

- Schools have different agendas and priorities. Football schools have their own priorities and needs (better bowls, more conference members, etc) while basketball schools have their own priorities. The question then arises, how willing are the two groups going to be to accommodate each other in the future. Will the basketball schools change their 8/8vote to help football scheduling?

While I think these issues will even cause a split between football and basketball schools,
I also think that any such split will be prompted by some other event. In other words, the conference will have external pressure applied to it to force a split to occur OR the climate in athletics will change so that a split actually becomes favorable. IMO, there are four scenarios that could prompt a split in the conference:

Scenario 1 – Raid by the Big Ten. If the Big Ten expands and takes Syracuse or Rutgers, I firmly believe that the remaining Big East schools will split to form an all-sport conference. During the last raid, the football schools voted unanimously to split but decided to stick together at the last minute. IMO, a second raid would prompt the schools to split in order to gain conference stability.

Scenario 2 – Football schools far surpass the basketball schools in basketball. If the football schools (especially Rutgers and USF) begin to surpass the basketball schools in hoops, then a split may become more likely. This becomes especially true if ESPN begins inking deals with the conference primarily for the purpose of televising the basketball games of the football schools. In this scenario, the football school may come to view the basketball schools as dead way and may split to resolve the football issues raised above.

Scenario 3 – Notre Dame’s status in the conference. The Notre Dame issue is similar to a chronic infection. Like a chronic disease, the issue of ND’s status is always going to be a contentious issue in the league. Some years the issue may flare up only to die back down (this year). Conversely, the issue may become a severe problem (Notre Dame taking BE bowls with regularity) that damages the conference’s health (lower bowls and less money for contributing conference teams). Further exacerbating the problem is that the conference has two perspectives on how this issue should be treated. The basketball schools view Notre Dame as a partner, a fellow catholic institution, and as a condition that should be managed rather than removed. Over time, I believe the football schools will tired of constant flare ups (Notre Dame taking bowl bids) and will view Notre Dame as a severe problem that should be treated (i.e. all-in or all-out). Unfortunately for the conference, the 8-8 voting will ensure little middle ground between the two viewpoints.

Scenario 4 – Changing athletic climate. The last thing that may prompt a split IMO is if the athletic climate in the eastern US changes significantly and a split from the basketball schools becomes favorable. For example, if UMass and Delaware upgrade to FBS football and begin performing on a high level, the Big East football school may see a split as a favorable over remaining in a hybrid conference.

-If Syracuse left the Big East a split would happen

-I really don't see and addition of two schools as causing a split. Neither do I see scheduling, I mean the Academies, Temple, UatB, and eastern MAC schools are gonna be there.

(11-12-2008 02:16 PM)Goldenbuc Wrote:  I don't understand the worry over a split. The basketball schools can still schedule and contract OOC games with the football schools and still keep a lot of revenue from TV.

Someone mentioned the new Orlando Magic arena...well...it's already being talked about for NCAA tourny rounds. But a conference tourney could fit just as well in UCF's new arena. It fits 10k and is state of the art that provides a lot of corporate suites to boot.

UCF's 10k Arena will never be the host of a new Big East Men's Basketball Tournament.

Memphis 18,000 seat arena with plenty of sky boxes/club seats would quickly sellout for a Big East Hoop Tournament...plus provide a great location for fans to visit (FedEx forum located just steps away from Beale Street).

Also, Louisville's new 22,000 seat Arena would quickly sellout as well (again with plenty of sky boxes/club seats, etc...).

UCF's 10k Arena can't even bring in half of the revenue that the above 2 arenas can bring in.

PS. NCAA Tournament has actually had "poor" attendance at their last 2 visits to Orlando...and while the new Orlando Magic Arena will be beautiful, no way would a new Big East ever award the tournament to it.

The old-timers at Syracuse and UConn are never going to allow their conference tourney to leave the (north) east coast. Rutgers and Pitt will probably agree, and that's half the league. That's why I think Temple is the first school added if a split occurs. It's all about balance of power, and those old-schoolers are going to try and keep their league from looking like the Metro Conference.

As the league looks now, why even speculate on moving the conference tourney?

Informative posts. In your opinion when will the Big East have to split/expand or do something to remedy these issues? I read somewhere that the contract all the schools signed to stay together ends in June of 2009.

(01-20-2009 08:26 PM)Joshua Wrote:  Informative posts. In your opinion when will the Big East have to split/expand or do something to remedy these issues? I read somewhere that the contract all the schools signed to stay together ends in June of 2009.

The current BE schools agreed to remain together for at least 5 years when the new BE was formed. That would be up to june 1 2010. However recent contracts (tv bowls etc)and commitments(BE now sponsoring mens lacrosse) have extended that (not officially but practically speaking) A split isnt likely any time soon, at the very earliest after 2013-2015

(12-16-2008 11:48 AM)UofL07 Wrote:  - Memphis has not shown a committment to football
Anyone else have any input into this matter?

You can't spend what you don't have (unless you are government). Tennessee state government does NOT allow college athletic programs to be subsidized by general funds so taking on debt is very risky. Even so, stadium upgrades and a new $3 million weightroom are presently underway. With the added income from conference revenue sharing and increased attendance which would come with Big East membership, UofM's perceived "lack of committment" will quickly become a thing of the past.