May 12, 2009
BIG EAST: To Split or Not to Split
by Matt Peloquin

When Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech left the Big East for the ACC, they did so with economics in mind. Who can blame them? The result was some serious thinking by the Big East as to how to proceed. One initial idea that gained some steam, was to form a split In this scenario, football members Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers and UConn would have been one conference while Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Villanova and Georgetown would be another. There would have been some instant need to fill in the blanks and CUSA football members Louisville, Cincinnati, and another (eventually was USF) would form an 8 team conference. The 6 non-football members would then seek 2-3 members with the candidate pool being CUSA members DePaul, Marquette, Charlotte and St. Louis, A10 members Xavier, Dayton and Richmond. Schools such as UMass sat waiting for one side or the other to steer them to either upgrade their football and join or commit to then I-AA and join the non-football schools.

Fast forward a few months and we know how it played out: The Big East expanded into a 16 team super-conference inviting Louisville, Cincinnati and then South Florida for all-sports including football and DePaul and Marquette for basketball. Leaving the balance at 8 football and 8 non-football, the goal was to preserve the league during troubling times, bring in quality programs and see what the future had in store.

It’s now 6 years later and change is again being discussed.

In a recent interview, outgoing Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese commented on the continual tension between the football members and those without football:
"We've really made an issue to take our football issues and talk about them in front of everybody," said Tranghese, who will be replaced by John Marinatto in June. "I think it's really allowed our so-called non-football-playing schools to feel more engaged. We don't have clandestine meetings. You got to work at it."

Tranghese always has been known as a straight shooter, an upfront guy who isn't afraid to say what's on his mind. In a news conference yesterday, he talked about a conversation he had with a basketball coach who was advocating splitting the league.

"I told him, fine. Where do you think you're going to play your tournament?" he recalled with a laugh. "Why don't you go play in Cleveland if you want?"

The tension between the two camps is expected. But it’s time to take a real hard look at the pros and cons of a split.

Big Questions:
Economics - What type of TV contracts would be available?
If there is a split, what teams are invited to each?
Who gets the name “Big East”?
Who gets the leagues auto bid for basketball?
Who gets to hold their conference championship in New York at MSG?
What type of provisions need to be made legally to protect the leagues from future conference changes?


Economics / TV Contracts:
The drive of any change will be money. While some schools have individual broadcast agreements for a very limited number if televised games, virtually all of the television revenue will be shared by a conference. In 2006, the Big East got a new, improved, and more lucrative contract with ESPN, with the value reportedly worth $250 million for both basketball (to which CBS kicked in approximately $9 million) and football between 2007-13. The specifics of the basketball television contract seem to be $23 million per year from ESPN and another $9 million from CBS.

So when looking at the basic shared revenue streams you have :
* Football: Television contracts
* Football: BCS revenue share
* Football: Non-BCS Bowl game shares
* Basketball: Television contracts
* Basketball: Unit shares for NCAA Tournament

The current Big East football revenue is shared only by the football members. Gate receipts for home games and payouts for road games go directly to that individual school. But the football television contracts are shared along with the BCS berth and non-BCS bowls.

Last year, West Virginia received $5,305,495 from the Big East conference for football and about $2 million for "non-football" sports. The football income includes $2 million in base revenue and a check deposited into the university's state account for $2,425,600 in bowl revenue. WVU received $2 million for winning the conference and participating in the Fiesta Bowl plus $200 per mile for traveling to and from the game. The remaining income total of $880,495 was generated by the team's leading role in the Big East's television package. The Big East began its new television contract in 2007 and it expires in 2013. The base amount and the television total are to be distributed as part of the league's revenue sharing.

Instinct is to look at the basic math: If the total contract is for X dollars, and its being split by 16 teams, then cutting the total number of teams to 8 would double the revenue. It’s not that easy. The current TV contract which expires in 2013 is based on the 16 teams and the existing markets. So a change would not likely happy until 2013. The economic climate might make it more difficult to negotiate a new deal for a new conference with the loss of current markets. But if one half of the conference could get a contract better than half the current 16 team value, it would create a greater per school payout.

Six years after the ACC defection one thing is clear: the football schools now hold the power, even without football. This year has made that obvious to the world as (3) of the (4) #1 NCAA Basketball Tournament seeds went to Big East football schools with (2) other big East football schools Syracuse, getting a #3 seed and WVU getting a #6 seed. Basketball member Villanova had a #3 seed as well.

In a 2007 Forbes valuation of college basketball programs, only 2 Big East programs ranked in the top 20…and both were football schools: 3rd ranked Louisville and 18th ranked Syracuse.

So the quick math: For the 2009 tournament, 5 out of 8 Big east schools sponsoring football will be in the NCAA Basketball tournament (with Cincinnati likely to the NIT) while only 2 of 8 non-football schools were invited.

With the success the football members have had in basketball in recent years,
It’s too early to tell what the actual financial figures would be. But the football members provide a few things that would likely result in a basketball television contract that could easily increase the revenue for each school by 50%:

• Recent success by members UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia with improvements by Cincinnati. Rutgers and USF rank at the bottom but help with…
• Strong national and regional viewership for Louisville, UConn and Syracuse. Strong local TV markets with New York/NJ (Rutgers), Tampa (USF), Cincinnati.

And one factor that doesn’t get much recognition in regards to potential television contracts is actual arena attendance. A packed house makes for more entertaining product. According to the2006-2007 attendance numbers: the top Big East figures were:

2. Syracuse Orange - Averaged 21,516 at Carrier Dome (Capacity: 33,000)
5. Louisville Cardinals - Averaged 18,488 at Freedom Hall (Capacity: 18,865)
14. Marquette Golden Eagles - Averaged 15,345 at Bradley Center (Capacity: 19,000)
20. UConn Huskies - Averaged 13,012 at XL Center (Capacity: 16,294)

The big thing to remember about the Big East is that the football presidents have a 'get out of jail free' card that they can exercise and Big East Football can split with essentially no penalties (no exit fees and the conference members keep their credits). The card expires in 2010 and no one knows whether this card will be extended beyond 2010.

So, at some later point, if the Big East splits, then the basketball schools would reap the $5 million exit fee and basketball credits.



If a Split happens, what teams could be invited to join?
With the current bloated format at 16, a return to a smaller conference will bring back all that was lost. No more will schools not play each other and we’d see the return of the seasonal home and homes games. And with a split at 8 schools, revenue per school is most efficient. But with the loss of some markets due to a split, there might be the need to carefully add new schools. The key will be potential reward: if a school is invited, the league must justify the move by having it increase the per school revenue by increasing the TV contracts.

Big East Basketball 8:
Members: Providence, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, DePaul, Marquette, potentially Notre Dame
Markets: Providence, NYC, NJ, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Chicago and Milwaukee. While in Indiana, Notre Dame is a national audience with the NY and Chicago markets the largest for alumni.

Potential Expansion Candidates:
Xavier: The A10 member is the most practical option since they would replace the loss of the Cincinnati market. Xavier would also bring balance by adding another Midwest team along with DePaul, Marquette and Notre Dame.

Dayton: another A10 member who has been a favorite by the NCAA for their fan passion (NCAA has their tourney play-in game in Dayton). A successful program as well. The only possible negative is their proximity to Xavier which might put St. Louis above them in the pecking order. Adding Xavier gives you the general market and you might not need both schools.

St. Louis: another strong candidate from the A10 that would love to team back up with DePaul and Marquette.

Richmond: an A10 member that would extend the footprint into ACC territory; was a favorite by Georgetown administrators to serve as a travel partner.

Charlotte: a bit out of place with geography, and the launch of a football program might bring some unease. But smack in the middle of the ACC and a sizable market, there could be some intrigue…but only if expansion went beyond (1) and football initiatives fail.

Big East football 8:
With an 8 team membership of UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida, there is little need to expand since 8 teams is all they need. Notre Dame would likely be included as a non-football member. But with the instability caused in 2003 with the Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech moves, some stability might be worth exploring. Having an extra school or two protects the league should the Big Ten take a team for its 12th (Pitt, Rutgers top that list).

The likely candidates would be decided by the power of the program, the benefits of the markets, and what Bowl games could be moved to the Big East as a result. Candidates would come from CUSA, Sunbelt and MAC conferences. Only one school fit all the desired criteria: desirable market to increase the TV contract value while providing quality football and basketball: Memphis.

Memphis: A quality market and one of the top basketball programs in the country…. Their media coverage fits what the conference would want and their attendance numbers are some of the best in the country. For the 2006-2007 season, Memphis ranked #16 in the country, averaging 14,527 at the FedEx Forum (Capacity: 18,119). Football is a secondary factor for Memphis and the Big East, but a Memphis inclusion would mean the addition of the Liberty Bowl to the Big East postseason. The 8 team football conference would be fine as is. But if you are going to lose historical programs and rivals such as St. Johns, Villanova, Georgetown, DePaul and Marquette, it helps solidify your basketball league when bringing in one of the top overall programs. Sadly, Memphis is not the same program without John Calipari. New coach Josh Pastner will need to create his own program.

Other Candidates: There are a few other schools that warrant consideration:

UCF: A great travel partner for USF and an improving program for both football and basketball. Adding UCF would increase the chance of securing the Champs Sports Bowl, played annually in Orlando. A Big East invite would likely come with the demand to upgrade the facilities, something that is causing other conferences to devalue the Champs Sports Bowl. But with the overnight Memphis basketball decline due to a coaching change, UCF is likely the top candidate.

ECU: in the middle of the ACC market but never got an invite in the past and likely wouldn’t now. There’s an argument to be made that Big East admins would wait to see what happens in Charlotte over the next 7 years with their football program birth.

Buffalo: While another northeast program would be ideal for the league, Buffalo is still light years away in football and basketball.

Army/Navy: It’s doubtful that either program would want to join for full membership and unlikely that the BE football 8 would want either as full members since neither provide much on the basketball side. And while Navy has had some success on the football side, it’s doubtful that the BE Football 8 would want more members like Army and Navy whom which they’d have to split revenue with. But if the BE Football 8 wanted to solidify their membership (and protect their BCS bid) with one or two football-only members (something they would probably stray from), Army and Navy might be considered.

FCS Programs UMass, Delaware, Appalachian St, Charlotte: Non-factors unless of a dire emergency to fill spots. UMass would be a regional replacement for the loss of Boston College in 2003 and Providence, but they would need to upgrade to FBS on their own and prove they can participate and flourish at that level like UConn has. Charlotte is an interesting long term school to watch. They will have a program in the coming years and if they succeed and upgrade to FBS, they could be a target around 2020 due to their market. But Charlotte will need to be very successful as just being in North Carolina isn’t enough (see ECU).

If a Big East split did indeed happen, and there was a desire for a 10th team all-sport member on the football side of a split, UCF would likely fit that spot. On the basketball side, Xavier would be the best fit but over time, interest might grow for other programs such as St. Louis.



Who Gets the “Big East” Name and NCAA Tournament Autobid?
In most people’s minds, a split seems straight forward: if the economics work and both leagues can get TV contracts, why not move forward? It’s issues such as the Big East brand, conference tournament in NY and the leagues automatic bid that hold as much relevance in the decision making process.

So who gets the Big East name? If one group (football vs. non-football) decides to leave on their own, it would seem that the remaining members would keep both the Big East name and the league automatic berth. In these days, it would take years of negotiations for these issues if the 16 members planned an amicable split. It seems that in order for a split to happen, one faction is going to have to just suck it up and leave, forfeiting both the league name and the auto bid. And the group holding more power right now is the football members. But do they walk away knowing the NCAA might not grant them an auto bid in year one? Perhaps. And for a lineup with UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville and others, it’s likely the NCAA would expand in order to grant greater access for schools that will generate more money for them.
So if the Football 8 walked away, they’ll need a new name.

Here’s a proposal: just adapt a name that has already been used and can likely be grabbed at little cost:
Metro Conference.

If you look at the proposed new conference of Big East football members, along with Memphis, (3) of the (6) charter members of the Metro conference would be included: Louisville, Cincinnati, and Memphis. South Florida was a member as well upon the merger of the Great Midwest and the Metro to form CUSA.

The name “Metro” certainly fits the description when you look at the included urban markets of Louisville, Cincinnati, Tampa (USF), Pittsburgh, and Memphis or Orlando (UCF). Included would be the greater NY/NJ region with Rutgers, Hartford with UConn and upstate NY with Syracuse and finally WVU.

From a branding perspective, “Metro” would be quite easy to remember and differentiate from other conferences. When the Metro conference previously existed in the 80’s and early 90’s, there was much less media exposure. But now with the advent of the internet, mobile phones and hundreds of satellite and cable channels, the hindrance of only newspapers, over-the-air television and limited cable options during the days of the old metro conference will seem like they were in the dark ages. If you form a new conference and need a new name, just go with a name people will remember: Metro.

Conference Tournament Locations: Who Gets MSG?
This is an easy one: St. Johns plays some home games at MSG, they are located in New York City, and so the conference championship of their league should be at MSG. Period. That’s it, right? Probably not. If the football schools want their conference tournaments at MSG, it won’t take much to make that happen.

Syracuse and UConn games will routinely do better than St. Johns games on TV. And their fans always seem to travel to New York for the tournament. The same can be said for other programs, especially with Rutgers just down the road in New Jersey.

Throw in the power shift where in all conferences, it’s the football schools that have more Final four appearances than non-football schools, and the Big East basketball schools, despite having St. Johns, might be looking elsewhere.

The non-football schools won’t have to “go to Cleveland” like outgoing commissioner Mike Tranghese said. Instead, a more likely home would be to remain in NY/NJ and hold their tournament at the Prudential Center in Newark, where Seton Hall plays.

Of course with a drastic change in conference could come a change in environment. The stature of the new conference of non-football schools would still hold enough clout to hold their tournaments in markets such as Philadelphia (Villanova) and Washington D.C. (Georgetown).

What Legal Provisions Need to Be Made to Make a Split Happen?
In 2003, as the ACC prepared to extend invites to Miami, Boston College, and Syracuse, the remaining teams in the Big East went straight for the lawyers. So Virginia Tech, Rutgers, WVU, Pittsburgh and UConn sued the ACC, Miami, and Boston College. The Big East lawsuit accused the ACC, Miami and Boston College of breach of fiduciary duty, civil conspiracy, unjust enrichment, unfair competition, and breach of implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. It alleged the actions of the defendants would have caused the plaintiffs "to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues, as well as the value of tens of millions of additional dollars spent to improve the facilities and teams in the conference." Syracuse was not included in the lawsuit as they reportedly had not made any “loyalty promises” to the Big East.

Notice a name on the plaintiffs list? Yes, Virginia Tech. So when the ACC decided to invite Virginia Tech instead of Syracuse (due to pressures from Virginia to include VPI), Virginia Tech was simply taken off the lawsuit. So a school claiming foul play chose what they once thought was “foul play” and left the Big East.

Notice this is the same Big East that then went after 5 CUSA schools, and avoided a moral conundrum by claiming that they works with CUSA since they wanted to become an all-sports conference with all football playing members. The ACC raid of the Big East was like a flashy, richer man showing up one day and taking 3 of your girlfriends. For the Big East raid of CUSA, they thought they’d send a letter first, trying to promote goodwill, and then take the desired schools.

What we’ve learned from the Big East after the changes of 2003, is that they will turn to lawsuits if need be.

Despite the morale and economic defeat of the 2003 ACC defections, the football schools did do something to protect themselves as football schools: they have the earlier mentioned “get out of jail” card. The football schools can leave the Big East with virtually no exit penalties especially if they were to leave together.
That said, in order for a split to happen smoothly, it’s going to have to be a mutual decision. And it’s nearly impossible to think of a scenario in which everyone would be happy.

If you’re the Big East football schools, and the basketball members say they will not sue if the basketball members get MSG for their tournament, do you take it? Probably not. In the end, hurt feelings and the tag of disloyalty might be best for the growth, future image and economics of the football members.


Big East Solidarity Options
If the Big East remains unified, there is another option that would permit the football schools to flex their muscles a bit, without leaving the conference.

It would be possible for the Big East football schools to remain in the conference and to use a promise to remain as the grease to allow the conference to expand to 18 with the addition of two football schools. If the TV contract was renegotiated to add Memphis and UCF, adding the Memphis and Orlando markets, there might be enough new revenue to slightly increase the existing per-team payout. Would it be the same as if the split were only 10 ways with only football schools? Perhaps not. But the boat wouldn’t be rocked too much with this move.

In adding Memphis, you already get the above mentioned benefits: strong program, solid market, and for football, the Liberty Bowl tie-in. With UCF, you get a partner for USF, the Orlando market and potential for the Champs Sports Bowl.

A long shot perhaps, but for all of those against a split, it’s a way to give the football schools more options without forcing their hand and watching them leave.

To Split or not to Split:
A split is something that will be discussed until it happens. And perhaps it never will. But with so much existing tension already existing and with so many advantages to becoming (2) conferences, it won’t come as a shock for a change even bigger than that of 2003 to happen.

There haven’t been too many hints that the upcoming Big East meetings will reveal some drastic change. But it will be interesting to see if anything is discussed regarding a split.

So stay tuned for the next piece: Conference Realignment Domino Effect 2.0 – Potential Effects of a Big East Split.
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