Incoming!

Freezing rain and sleet is predicted. Tomorrow could see us looking out at a sheet of ice covering all...

**** the GDOT. "We weren't expecting this until 9 pm" BS. You should have salted before rush hour just in case.

4.5 hrs to go 25 miles.

....and a lot of our MAC fans say, "dude, stop bein' a little *****".

About .4" of ice here on the ground in Louisville, although it has started to melt.

000
FXUS62 KGSP 221105
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME COMPELLING CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE
POINT TO AN EVENT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK OF A
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GEM GLOBAL HAS MORE OR LESS BEEN FOLLOWING THAT
LEAD. FINALLY...ON THIS MODEL CYCLE...THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A
FASTER NORTHERN HOLDOUT...IS ON BOARD WITH MOVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULFMEX COAST ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THIS HAS RAISED CONFIDENCE THAT OUR MOSTLY
WHITE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS IS WEAKENED WITH ITS MAJOR DEPARTURE.
CONFIDENCE WILL GROW FURTHER IF THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL HAS THE
BETTER TRACK...ALL THE MODELS NOW FEATURE PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
THAT FAVOR ALL SNOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A WARM NOSE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW PROBLEM.
THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT WOULD MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WOULD BE
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTWELL TO ANDERSON AND LAURENS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SCENARIO. WITH MUCH OF
THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES OUT OF THE WAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF
A TIMING AND QPF PROBLEM...THE GFS STILL BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER
WITH ONSET BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SLOWER
ECMWF WOULD HAVE ONSET AFTER SUNRISE TO NOON SATURDAY. WITH THE GFS
ON BOARD...THE FORECAST IS BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR TIMING.
POP RAMPS UP FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN AN EFFORT TO REIN IN THE EXCITEMENT...THE QPF
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE LOWER AMOUNTS ON THE GFS...WHICH STILL GIVES
US A UNIFORM 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...AND
GREENWOOD COUNTIES THAT STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SLOWER AND STRONGER ECMWF HAS PLENTY OF
SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. IF THAT MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...WE WOULD
HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT WOULD STAND TO GET UP
TO DOUBLE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. EITHER WAY...IF WE CONSIDER A
WHITE CHRISTMAS TO BE ONE INCH ACCUMULATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THAT
HAS NOT HAPPENED IN THE AREA FROM GREENVILLE (1963) TO CHARLOTTE
(1947) IN NEARLY 50 TO 60 YEARS. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...IT
COULD BE AN EVENT THAT WILL BE TALKED ABOUT FOR THE REST OF OUR
LIVES. THE POTENTIAL DOWNFALL WOULD BE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN
MORE...IN WHICH CASE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED!

For the Weather Nerds...and anybody else

All I have to say is...UGH.

(12-22-2010 12:20 PM)Lethemeul Wrote:  For the Weather Nerds...and anybody else

All I have to say is...UGH.

AWESOME.

(12-22-2010 12:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 12:20 PM)Lethemeul Wrote:  For the Weather Nerds...and anybody else

All I have to say is...UGH.

AWESOME.

I'll deal with it unless the power goes. If the power goes...I break up.

SWEET! We're gonna get snow!

(12-22-2010 10:31 PM)Rebel Wrote:  SWEET! We're gonna get snow!

Snow? **** will hit the fan. NWS in Birmingham, AL just put up a winter weather advisory. I may take picks at the local grocery store after it's ransacked.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/Strait/...recast.asp

Sweet! 6-12 inches! I'm game!

(12-22-2010 11:06 PM)Rebel Wrote:  Sweet! 6-12 inches! I'm game!

I'm trrying to type this with as little glee as possible, but they are starting to back off the epic-gonna-kill-us-all-and-freeze-puppies-and-babies predictions this morning. Looks like we may get a few inches in NC, but most of the DOOOOOOOM! looks to be moving to the NE (as it should be.)

(12-22-2010 10:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 10:31 PM)Rebel Wrote:  SWEET! We're gonna get snow!

Snow? **** will hit the fan. NWS in Birmingham, AL just put up a winter weather advisory. I may take picks at the local grocery store after it's ransacked.

I think it's hilarious how southerners make runs on the stores if snow is even predicted. It's like they'll starve is snow hits the roads. But even if snow does fall, if it's on the ground for 24 hours, it's been a hard winter...

(12-23-2010 12:00 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 10:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 10:31 PM)Rebel Wrote:  SWEET! We're gonna get snow!

Snow? **** will hit the fan. NWS in Birmingham, AL just put up a winter weather advisory. I may take picks at the local grocery store after it's ransacked.

I think it's hilarious how southerners make runs on the stores if snow is even predicted. It's like they'll starve is snow hits the roads. But even if snow does fall, if it's on the ground for 24 hours, it's been a hard winter...

I told my wife to stock up while shopping yesterday. Mostly b/c I figure if we don't do it now, the shelves will be empty when we're ready to do regular shopping in a few days.

Anyway, I'd be happy for light snow this year, after last year's abundance.

If I want to see a sh!tload of snow, I go visit the family in West Virginia during the winter...

Got my 12 pack'a'beer and chain ready for my 4WD!

(12-23-2010 12:00 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 10:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(12-22-2010 10:31 PM)Rebel Wrote:  SWEET! We're gonna get snow!

Snow? **** will hit the fan. NWS in Birmingham, AL just put up a winter weather advisory. I may take picks at the local grocery store after it's ransacked.

I think it's hilarious how southerners make runs on the stores if snow is even predicted. It's like they'll starve is snow hits the roads. But even if snow does fall, if it's on the ground for 24 hours, it's been a hard winter...

The funniest part is that we stock up on milk, bread, and eggs...

Still haven't figured that one out.