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August 28, 2005
Taking Aim at Pasadena
By PETE THAMEL
Pete Thamel, who covers college sports for The New York Times, predicts that Michigan and Louisville will win their conferences and finish in the top two spots in the Bowl Championship Series, and that Michigan will prevail in the Rose Bowl.
Michigan
2004 Record 9-3, 7-1 Big Ten
Stars Quarterback Chad Henne, wide receiver Jason Avant and tailback Mike Hart
Coach Lloyd Carr (11th season, 95-29)
Key Game at Iowa, Oct. 22
An argument for Michigan boils down to an argument against Southern California, seemingly everyone's No. 1 team this season. The Trojans have lost too much on defense and too much on their coaching staff to go undefeated again. Also, U.S.C. was challenged last year by U.C.L.A., Stanford and California, which was 9 yards from winning in Los Angeles. U.S.C. has road trips to Cal, Arizona State, Notre Dame and always tricky Oregon this year. Without the offensive coordinator Norm Chow's deft touch calling plays and the defensive coordinator Ed Orgeron's intensity, some slippage is inevitable.
That leaves the national title up for grabs. Michigan's defense has still not proved it can contain a mobile quarterback. But the Wolverines have so much talent at the skill positions on offense that they will be able to compensate. A full year of starting will turn Hart, a sophomore, into a star. Henne, the sophomore quarterback, has quality targets in Avant and Steve Breaston. The schedule falls in line, too, as Michigan plays host to Notre Dame and Ohio State. A trip to Iowa in October will be the pivotal weekend. In the end, expect the Wolverines to storm Los Angeles and win the national title.
Louisville
2004 Record 11-1, 8-0 Conference USA
Stars Quarterback Brian Brohm, tailback Michael Bush and defensive end Elvis Dumervil
Coach Bobby Petrino (3rd season, 20-5)
Key Game at West Virginia, Oct. 15
The Cardinals will be favored in every regular-season game, even with their move to the Big East. After the anomaly that was the 2004 college football season, with five undefeated Division I-A teams in the regular season, Louisville may be the only unbeaten team this year, and it would be hard to keep it out of the title game. Scheduling is so important in college football, and Louisville has done it well. Home games against Oregon State and North Carolina will help the team's computer rankings. Petrino's outlandish spread offense will take care of the rest. Brohm, a sophomore, will step in to start at quarterback after Petrino broke him in last year with the occasional series. Expect Bush, a junior, to put up huge running and receiving numbers. The defense is a bit inexperienced in the front four and secondary, but Louisville will outscore the teams it cannot stop. Louisville's fate will come down to the perpetually changing B.C.S. formula. Expect the Cardinals to be vying with one-loss teams from the Pac-10, Southeastern Conference and Big Ten for a spot in the Rose Bowl.
OTHERS IN THE HUNT
A.C.C.
Virginia Tech
2004 Record: 10-3, 7-1
Coach Frank Beamer (19th season, 135-77-2)
Key Game Miami, Nov. 5
Virginia Tech, the unlikely Atlantic Coast Conference champion last season, should repeat with a stout defense and the dominant special-teams play that is the program's hallmark. But the story line of the season in Blacksburg will be the return of quarterback Marcus Vick, the younger brother of the former Hokies star Michael Vick. Marcus Vick returns after being suspended for last season for a litany of off-the-field problems. No one has questioned his talent. His dedication and attitude will ultimately determine Tech's season. The Hokies' recent success against Miami - 7-3 since 1995 - should continue in a home game.
Stars The senior tight end Jeff King will be a reliable target for Vick, and the senior tailbacks Mike Imoh and Cedric Humes are sturdy and reliable. Defensive end Darryl Tapp continues a long line of standout defensive ends that stretches back to Bruce Smith.
BIG TEN
Iowa
2004 Record: 10-2, 7-1
Coach Kirk Ferentz (7th season, 42-31)
Key Game at Ohio State, Sept. 24
Ferentz began his Iowa career 2-18, but he has gone 40-13 since, including three consecutive 10-victory seasons. He is not doing it with smoke and mirrors, either. The Hawkeyes are luring top recruits, including the junior quarterback Drew Tate. Do not be surprised if the Hawkeyes fall in Week 2 at Iowa State but regroup against Ohio State in Columbus two weeks later. Ferentz's teams always improve as the season goes on.
Stars: Tate was a first-team all-conference selection last year and has a favorite target returning in the senior receiver Ed Hinkel. The seniors Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway may be the best pair of linebackers on a team in the country.
BIG 12
Oklahoma
2004 Record: 12-1, 8-0
Coach Bob Stoops (7th season, 67-12)
Key Games at U.C.L.A., Sept. 17; Texas, Oct. 8.
Texas has a better offensive line and quarterback and more experience on defense than Oklahoma. But the Sooners have history on their side. Oklahoma has defeated Texas five years in a row. Until the Longhorns can win, the Sooners are a no-brainer choice, even if they do not look better on paper. O.U. has Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 225 yards against Texas last year and will be leaned on heavily if Oklahoma is to make history repeat itself.
Stars: The senior tackle Davin Joseph will lead the offensive line and could end up as a top-10 N.F.L. draft pick. Dusty Dvoracek returns to the defensive line from a nearly yearlong suspension and will anchor the Sooners' defense.
SEC EAST
Florida
2004 Record: 7-5, 4-4
Coach Urban Meyer (1st season, 39-8 over all)
Key Game Tennessee, Sept. 17
The schedule favors Florida for a run to the conference title, with Florida State and Tennessee visiting the Swamp. But trips to Louisiana State and Alabama make going undefeated difficult. It will be interesting to see if faster defenses can slow Meyer's spread option offense. With the strong-armed Chris Leak as the triggerman, expect more passing and less option. If Leak finds a rhythm with his bountiful skill-position players, Florida could be downright scary.
Stars: Leak is considered a Heisman Trophy contender, and his season will depend on his grasp of the offense. Meyer considers the junior linebacker Earl Everett the team's best player. He and the sophomore linebacker Brandon Siler will anchor a stingy defense.
SEC WEST
Alabama
2004 Record: 6-6, 3-5
Coach Mike Shula (3rd season, 10-15)
Key Game Florida, Oct. 1
A good defense and a dreamy schedule make Alabama a sleeper to crash the B.C.S. The Tide returns nine starters from a hardy defense and good depth in the front seven. That should allow the offense to mature from the rut it has been in the past two seasons under Shula. When healthy, Brodie Croyle can throw with any quarterback in the country. If Croyle stays on the field, Alabama will compete for the SEC West title. The schedule sets up for the Tide to be undefeated when Florida rolls in.
Stars: Kenneth Darby rushed for 1,062 yards last season and will have more room with a healthy Croyle winging the ball around the field. DeMeco Ryans leads the defense, which will need to carry the Tide.
PAC-10
U.S.C.
2004 Record: 13-0, 8-0
Coach Pete Carroll (5th season, 42-9)
Key Game at Oregon, Sept. 24
There's no question the Trojans have reloaded. But the schedule seems too daunting for them to be the first team to win three national championships in a row, especially with an inexperienced defense. U.S.C. opens at Hawaii, plays tricky games with Arkansas, Fresno State and U.C.L.A. at home, and still has a challenging road slate featuring Oregon, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame and Arizona State. U.S.C. left a lasting impression with its thrashing of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, but too many holes must be filled on the defensive front and at linebacker for the Trojans to dominate again.
Stars: Matt Leinart won the Heisman Trophy last season. Dwayne Jarrett is a resplendent receiver, and running back Reggie Bush is arguably the best player in the country.
BEST OF THE REST
Boise State
If the Broncos survive September undefeated, they will be ranked in the top 5. But that would require victories at Georgia, Oregon State and Hawaii. Plus, a tough Bowling Green team travels to Boise. The team philosophy is based on risk-taking and wide-open football, which makes the Broncos pleasing to watch in spite of the blue turf they play on. Look for quarterback Jared Zabransky, the son of a potato farmer, to lead a potent offense that returns eight starters and thrives in multiple formations. Left tackle Daryn Colledge is projected to be a high first-round pick in the N.F.L. draft. The defense has struggled against the pass, which could lead to a rough start.
L.S.U.
The quarterback question that lingered over Baton Rouge last season has not lifted. Will the new coach, Les Miles, go with one of the nation's top recruits, the freshman Ryan Perrilloux, or use JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn until Perrilloux is ready? The offense will have plenty of weapons, with Justin Vincent running and Skyler Green receiving. The Tigers will be solid on defense, with Miles importing Bo Pelini from Oklahoma to be his coordinator and run an aggressive scheme. The season will turn on Sept. 24, when Tennessee visits.
Texas
The Longhorns picked a bad season to play an epic out-of-conference game. Texas travels to Ohio State in Week 2 for what is being billed by some as the best regular-season game of 2005. But that trip, combined with the Oklahoma game, means contests against two projected top-5 teams in one month. Texas could win both, but it has a penchant for big-game no-shows. This could be Coach Mack Brown's most talented team, with quarterback Vince Young and defensive tackle Rodrique Wright among the best anywhere at their positions. But it is tough to trust the Longhorns in big games until they beat the Sooners.
Miami
The California native Kyle Wright, the future of Miami at quarterback, will make his debut this season as a sophomore. The 6-foot-4 Wright has a strong arm and should quickly make Miami fans forget about Brock Berlin. Miami has its typical collection of skill-position players and a game-breaking return man, Devin Hester. The big question on defense will be which Williams plays middle linebacker. Will it be Leon Williams, a top recruit from New York? Or the redshirt freshman Willie Williams, the author of the infamous recruiting trip diaries? Trips to Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech make this a tough season for the Hurricanes to stay in the top 10.
California
The most dynamic skill-position player in the Pac-10 and not at U.S.C. will start in the Cal backfield: tailback Marshawn Lynch averaged 8.8 yards a carry as a true freshman last season and would have been mentioned with Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Michigan's Mike Hart if he had not been playing behind the starter J. J. Arrington. Cal held opponents to an average of 16 points a game last season, and it will be that defense giving the new quarterback, Joe Ayoob, time to adjust to his role. With the quarterback guru Jeff Tedford as his coach, it should not take long.
Ohio State
As usual, defense will carry the Buckeyes. Their linebacker crew, led by A. J. Hawk, will give them a typically punishing defense. The offense still has some question marks, as the Buckeyes still have not found a reliable tailback since Maurice Clarett left campus. But Ted Ginn Jr. could be a Heisman candidate if he gets the ball enough. The one loss the Buckeyes may not be able to overcome is the departure of kicker Mike Nugent. His accuracy and reliability made Coach Jim Tressel look smart in a lot of close games over the years.
DARK HORSES
Utah
For a team with a 16-game winning streak, Utah is receiving remarkably little attention. But even with Coach Urban Meyer and quarterback Alex Smith gone, the Utes should win the Mountain West behind the talented quarterback Brian Johnson, who played a lot last year because of all the blowouts. A repeat in the Bowl Championship Series may still be too much to ask, but do not be surprised at a 10-victory season.
Texas-El Paso
Coach Mike Price, the quarterback guru who gave us Drew Bledsoe and Ryan Leaf (who many forget was a brilliant college quarterback), has his next protégé: Jordan Palmer, Carson's younger brother. He flourished under Price during UTEP's remarkable 8-4 season last year. With a favorable schedule, talented receivers and a stout defensive front, the Miners will be even better this year.
Bowling Green
The junior Omar Jacobs, who threw for 4,002 yards and 41 touchdowns last season, can carry the Falcons to a Mid-American Conference title. A victory in the opener at Wisconsin could vault Jacobs atop the Heisman race and make Coach Gregg Brandon as hot a name as the man he followed at Bowling Green, Urban Meyer.
Notre Dame
For years in the N.F.L., Charlie Weis got optimum production out of his skill-position players. Notre Dame is flush with offensive talent. It is reasonable to suggest that Weis, as Notre Dame's new coach, can make tight end Anthony Fasano an all-American and quarterback Brady Quinn a star. But the secondary is atrocious, and that will keep Notre Dame from being a serious contender.
Penn State
With the defense returning virtually intact, a unit that did not allow more than 21 points in a game in 2004, the Nittany Lions will better their 4-7 record from last season. How much better may depend on how Coach Joe Paterno uses the freshmen Derrick Williams, a wide receiver, and Justin King, a defensive back and receiver. They add big-play speed to a team in need of it.
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