There is no status quo in college athletics. That's the lesson we learned from the great conference shakeup of 2003.
Though the notion exists that all is quiet on the realignment front, it's a good bet that more tremors will be felt over the next couple of years, with the Big East leading the charge.
No question, Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese was the big loser in '03. With no clear direction or mission, his league was easy prey in the predatory practice of conference expansion.
Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner John Swofford, seeking to upgrade his league's membership from nine to 12, plucked Tranghese's ripest programs like an early-summer harvest. Tranghese's response was to ambush Conference USA and seize its most prized basketball possessions, a move that hardly compensated for the Big East's losses in football.
In fact, Tranghese's move merely reinvented the scenario that made the conference vulnerable to invasion before: a hybrid configuration in which the league membership's interests are divided between football and hoops.
Even so, the odds of the Big East enduring another major pillage are fairly slim. With most major conferences in its jurisdiction already boasting 12 members, the league, for the most part, appears safe from another significant heist.
Of course, the chance exists that the Big Ten could court West Virginia, Pittsburgh, or Syracuse. However, that's dependent largely on a unified desire of the Midwestern football power to up membership to 12 — and a reluctance by Notre Dame to cast its lot with the Big Ten.
Such is the uncertain nature of today's bigtime college athletics landscape. The question no longer is if a strategic move will be made, it's by whom and when.
Judging by the ACC's motives for expansion, it's clear that the Big East should lead the next charge by improving its football profile with a 12-school, all-sports league.
Not only would that put all members on the same song page, it also would enhance the conference's television appeal.
"Over the last half-century, televised college football has manufactured money, greed, dependence and envy," author Keith Dunnavant said in his book, The 50 Year Seduction, which examines the effect television has had on college football. "(TV) altered the recruiting process, eventually forcing the colleges to compete with the irresistible forces of National Football League riches."
The Big East is barely competitive with C-USA and the Mountain West Conference in terms of television appeal. The notion that it could draw ratings rivaling the NFL is comical.
Of the Big East's eight football members, almost half — Cincinnati, Rutgers, and South Florida — has a reputation for poor attendance. Combine that with the cold hard reality that none of the three programs resonates with a national audience, and the league has little leverage at the negotiating tables for TV contracts and new bowl tie-ins.
Though chastised for what many perceived as bullish behavior, the ACC was justified for expanding to 12. The end result — a lucrative television deal that includes a conference championship game — trumps any backlash the league received in both the public and the media.
If the Big East wants to survive as a legitimate football conference, it must follow that lead.
Without a significant image makeover, the Big East could drop another link on the national food chain. Utah's recent bursting of the BCS bubble, along with the addition of Texas Christian, puts the Mountain West on level ground with the Big East.
If Texas-El Paso and Memphis continue to improve, C-USA would join the mix.
To avoid that scenario, the Big East desperately needs numbers and depth. When Louisville is the top program in an eight-school conglomerate, the cards are firmly in the hands of the networks and bowl officials.
Not that the Cardinals aren't a potential power in-the-making. As long as Bobby Petrino remains a resident of the Derby City, Louisville should be a player on the national scene.
But if the Big East wants a piece of the big-money pie, it better add a few seats to its table.
With so much money controlled by television, the days of smaller, tightly-knit leagues have long passed. The Southeastern Conference and the Big 12 pioneered that theory, with the ACC further proving it.
More teams means more markets, which translates to more viewers and dollars. The trick is finding schools with strong football cultures that appeal to TV and bowl executives.
Hypothetically, Notre Dame naturally would be atop the Big East's wish list. Beyond the Irish, East Carolina, Marshall, and Memphis would make financial sense.
What doesn't is sitting put. Doing so could lock the Big East out of the big money for good.
That's a gamble Tranghese can't afford to take.
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01/04/2005 03:29:23 AM
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Interesting article on the future of Big East
