Clemson blog claims Clemson & FSU to B12 in 2013

http://www.cemetery-hill.com/2012-articl...merge.html

I have never been on the blog, so I have no idea how valid the
info/sources are.

http://www.eerinsider.com/2012-articles/...e-acc.html

"The Dude" has it (without the haughty financial details) as well.

New commish = Expansionistas on parade!!

From the Cemetery Hill Blog:

Quote:- The new Big 12 TV contract with the two new schools to be added we're told will approach 30 million per team.

- Approximately 3.5 million of the 30 million will be derived from the conference championship game.

These two statements let me know that this is all conjecture. This is laughably wrong. The Big XII is in the process of signing an extension of their Tier 1 TV contract with ESPN and just signed a long-term contract with Fox last year for their Tier 2 rights. These two contracts will pay about $196 M/year for the whole conference - or $19.6 M/team. The Tier 3 rights are up to each school to negotiate, and some estimates have those rights anywhere from $1 M to $4 M per year. So split the difference and call it $2.4 M and you have a nice tidy $22 M/year TV contract per school - which is about $4-$6 M/year than FSU or Clemson would make in the ACC.

But to have the contract per school go to $30 M/year would mean that the overall TV package would increase by 64% over what they have just renegotiated. That's ludicrous. Even a small increase of $2 M/year (what the ACC is expecting for the additions of Pitt and Syracuse) would mean a jump of 31% of the overall TV contracts. That's much more reasonable, but still an amazing jump for just adding 2 schools. Even keeping the TV money the same as what they have now per school is a 20% jump to have that same share for 12 as they would for 10.

Now the CCG estimate of $3.5 M/school means the CCG is estimated at $42 M. Again, laughable. I've seen $25 M at the most as a payout for their CCG. ESPN only pays CUSA $1 M for their CCG and the B1G about $15 M for theirs, so why does anyone think that the Big XII is going to get 3x what the B1G gets?

FSU and Clemson would make more money in the Big XII. No question. But is it worth $20 M in exit fees to find out? And is it worth a tougher road to the 4-team playoff?

Nobody aside from Greg Swaim, bloggers, and message board posters has even suggested this as being true, and many have been on this rumor for months.

Rumors circulating around, but still seem dubious at best. I don't consider that blog concrete. I wouldn't be surprised if some where some how some discussios are being had, but it is a long way from discussions to reality. I really doubt it will ever come to fruition.

That said, let's say those rumors turn out true and FSU and Clemson do go to the Big 12. Does the ACC respond or stay at 12. Gotta believe they stay at 12.

Would the ACC and Big 12 kill off the Big East after this?

(05-04-2012 12:01 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Rumors circulating around, but still seem dubious at best. I don't consider that blog concrete. I wouldn't be surprised if some where some how some discussios are being had, but it is a long way from discussions to reality. I really doubt it will ever come to fruition.

That said, let's say those rumors turn out true and FSU and Clemson do go to the Big 12. Does the ACC respond or stay at 12. Gotta believe they stay at 12.

I dunno... I'd say it's about 50/50 between staying at 12 or going after UConn & Rutgers.

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Would the ACC and Big 12 kill off the Big East after this?

yes.

(05-04-2012 12:01 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Rumors circulating around, but still seem dubious at best. I don't consider that blog concrete. I wouldn't be surprised if some where some how some discussios are being had, but it is a long way from discussions to reality. I really doubt it will ever come to fruition.

That said, let's say those rumors turn out true and FSU and Clemson do go to the Big 12. Does the ACC respond or stay at 12. Gotta believe they stay at 12.

Or is it open season on the ACC? VaTech & NCSU to SEC, Maryland and UVa to B1G? Oh the possibilities!!

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)No Bull Wrote:  

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Would the ACC and Big 12 kill off the Big East after this?

yes.

The Big East cannot be killed. Heck, there's now a 13-team C-USA for them to pull teams from.

(05-04-2012 12:08 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)No Bull Wrote:  

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Would the ACC and Big 12 kill off the Big East after this?

yes.

The Big East cannot be killed. Heck, there's now a 13-team C-USA for them to pull teams from.

Yep, the BE has gotten so big now that they couldn't be killed at this point. Hell now they have 2 conferences to raid instead of just being stuck raiding C-USA. The MWC now fits the footprint.

(05-04-2012 12:03 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(05-04-2012 12:01 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Rumors circulating around, but still seem dubious at best. I don't consider that blog concrete. I wouldn't be surprised if some where some how some discussios are being had, but it is a long way from discussions to reality. I really doubt it will ever come to fruition.

That said, let's say those rumors turn out true and FSU and Clemson do go to the Big 12. Does the ACC respond or stay at 12. Gotta believe they stay at 12.

I dunno... I'd say it's about 50/50 between staying at 12 or going after UConn & Rutgers.

I guess the question is whether the factors in place that led to the Pitt/Syracuse invites are still in place.

Of course, I never really understood the motivation behind those invites, other than "get big first"...

Not happening. The ACC will probably lose NCSU and one of the Virginia schools to the SEC one day, but will not lose anyone to the Big 12.

I think the ACC was tired of the Big East being #1 in basketball, but that's just me.

(05-04-2012 11:52 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  Clemson blog claims Clemson & FSU to B12 in 2013

http://www.cemetery-hill.com/2012-articl...merge.html

I have never been on the blog, so I have no idea how valid the
info/sources are.

Hypothetically, if that actually occurs, and with the Big East about to go to the open market for their new TV contract, would VT, Virginia, and Miami be able to be wooed to the BE? Would PITT and Syracuse want to still go without Clemson and FSU?

I know on the surface it sounds far fetched, but NBC execs want into College Football in a big way, and could step in and throw big jack around to make this happen. ND should/could be working with NBC to make this happen in a similar way to how ESPN influenced the the ACC.

WEST

Boise St.
Houston
Memphis
SMU
Sand Diego State
Navy
UCF

EAST

Louisville
UCONN
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Miami
USF
Rutgers

or will UCONN and Rutgers be targets of the ACC?

That being said, the TV deal situation is definitely putting the BE in a slight position of advantage.

I wouldnt be suprised to see ESPN and NBC in a power struggle to control what ever happens here. I would give the edge in that battle to NBC because if they don't make this happen, their options become thin, and ESPN may feel like they have control of most of the top 4 conferences compared to all the other networks.

Crazy times for sure, but if UCONN and Rutgers or whoever does leave for ACC in this instance I just see the BE adding ECU and USM to replace and still grabbing BYU or AFA

I think the most likely outcome is that the BE adds its 14th, and the ACC would stand at 12

ACC/NORTH: BC/UCONN, Rutgers/Syracuse, MD/Pitt, VA/Va Tech
ACC/SOUTH: UNC/NCSU, WF/Duke, Ga Tech/UL, Miami/USF

Basically, ACC/North becomes the real BE.

(05-04-2012 12:00 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  http://www.eerinsider.com/2012-articles/...e-acc.html

"The Dude" has it (without the haughty financial details) as well.

New commish = Expansionistas on parade!!

From the Cemetery Hill Blog:

Quote:- The new Big 12 TV contract with the two new schools to be added we're told will approach 30 million per team.

- Approximately 3.5 million of the 30 million will be derived from the conference championship game.

These two statements let me know that this is all conjecture. This is laughably wrong. The Big XII is in the process of signing an extension of their Tier 1 TV contract with ESPN and just signed a long-term contract with Fox last year for their Tier 2 rights. These two contracts will pay about $196 M/year for the whole conference - or $19.6 M/team. The Tier 3 rights are up to each school to negotiate, and some estimates have those rights anywhere from $1 M to $4 M per year. So split the difference and call it $2.4 M and you have a nice tidy $22 M/year TV contract per school - which is about $4-$6 M/year than FSU or Clemson would make in the ACC.

But to have the contract per school go to $30 M/year would mean that the overall TV package would increase by 64% over what they have just renegotiated. That's ludicrous. Even a small increase of $2 M/year (what the ACC is expecting for the additions of Pitt and Syracuse) would mean a jump of 31% of the overall TV contracts. That's much more reasonable, but still an amazing jump for just adding 2 schools. Even keeping the TV money the same as what they have now per school is a 20% jump to have that same share for 12 as they would for 10.

Now the CCG estimate of $3.5 M/school means the CCG is estimated at $42 M. Again, laughable. I've seen $25 M at the most as a payout for their CCG. ESPN only pays CUSA $1 M for their CCG and the B1G about $15 M for theirs, so why does anyone think that the Big XII is going to get 3x what the B1G gets?

FSU and Clemson would make more money in the Big XII. No question. But is it worth $20 M in exit fees to find out? And is it worth a tougher road to the 4-team playoff?

Nobody aside from Greg Swaim, bloggers, and message board posters has even suggested this as being true, and many have been on this rumor for months.

EerInsider was the first to break the news of WVU going to the Big XII, before any of the big news services. The initial reports from ESPiN, CBS, Fox, Yahoo, etc all pointed to EerInsider's report on the subject. So obviously they have some sources. I wouldn't dismiss them out of hand...

If the B12 wanted to go to 16, then this:

B12/WEST: UT/Baylor, TT/TCU, OU/OSU, KU/KSU
B12/EAST: ISU/WVA, PITT/MD, MD/VA TECH, CLEMSON/FSU

(05-04-2012 12:13 PM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  

(05-04-2012 11:52 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  Clemson blog claims Clemson & FSU to B12 in 2013

http://www.cemetery-hill.com/2012-articl...merge.html

I have never been on the blog, so I have no idea how valid the
info/sources are.

Hypothetically, if that actually occurs, and with the Big East about to go to the open market for their new TV contract, would VT, Virginia, and Miami be able to be wooed to the BE? Would PITT and Syracuse want to still go without Clemson and FSU?

O.K., let's stop right there. Do you really believe that VT, Virginia, Miami, PITT and Syracuse would not want to be in the same conference as UNC or Maryland?

Clemson and FSU would be big losses for the ACC, but c'mon man.

The thing for the ACC in this- will it only be Clemson and FSU as losses? If so, it's big, but not huge.

If they lose anything more than that though- it's going to be a LOT more than just that. Instead of only 2 could be 8-10. Big Ten and SEC would be vultures. Big 12 might even get 2 more from the ACC. That's the doomsday scenario. UNC and Maryland would likely be gone from the ACC.

http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1362072


This is from their rivals site (I thought these rumors were only coming from WVU?!?!?!). Good quotes from the "CEO" of their boosters program.



"The other big issue is conference distribution," noted Miller. "The ACC, when I started, they paid more than anybody else. Now, it's significantly different than some of the people we compete against."

When someone claims, without proof, that the conference will make $360 million per year from Tier 1/2 TV rights, the obvious conclusion is that they are writing fiction.