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Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 03:28 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I would think good attendance in a small market is a negative for TV. Already have a small market and a larger percentage are at the game.

Except for the fact that nearly every school with really good attendance is located in a small market. That would be pretty impressive though if all of our fans were actually located in the Greenville/New Bern DMA. That would mean we were getting nearly 15% of the DMA to show up on game days.
05-24-2012 04:05 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
Interesting stuff.

I wonder if 12 is perhaps the optimal number for maximizing the per-school payout. You get the conference title game, you get a whole lot of football and basketball inventory. Maybe the networks are thinking that when a conference has more than 12, the additional inventory (whomever the additional teams are) doesn't add as much value per school.

In other words, adding two more schools gives the SEC an excuse to renegotiate, and getting new markets is always good, but if they had the ability to renegotiate without adding anyone, could they get as much money from CBS and ESPN for 12 as they'll get for 14? Same question for the ACC.
05-24-2012 04:08 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
This is the best argument I've seen that Big East football will get real money. Kudos, 1975.
05-24-2012 04:12 PM
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ECUPirated Offline
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RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 03:53 PM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 03:28 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I would think good attendance in a small market is a negative for TV. Already have a small market and a larger percentage are at the game.

Only most of our Almuni don't live in Greenville. Otherwise we'd have a much larger market. I guess that's a pretty difficult concept to understand in a commuter school conference.

Yeah, people seem to think that Greenville is a town of around 90,000 and 50,000 of them people are sitting in the stadium on any given Saturday. Not the case at all. Many of those 50,000 come from out of town and it ain't necessarily the same ones that show up for the next game.

People also don't seem to get that Eastern North Carolina (east of I-95) for the most part belongs to East Carolina demographically. Rocky Mount, Elizabeth City, Goldsboro, Wilson, Greenville, New Bern, etc. etc. etc. don't associate with / or think like the people in Raleigh / Chapel Hill / Durham. It's a different breed, many of whom support ECU. Some percentage of 2-2.5 million eastern North Carolinians. Yes UNC and State have their fans over here also, but for those of us who live and travel around here, we know the real answer.
05-24-2012 04:48 PM
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apex_pirate Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
Actually, it points to the Big East getting less than what BE fans hoped for.
05-24-2012 04:48 PM
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piratefan1975 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 04:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  This is the best argument I've seen that Big East football will get real money. Kudos, 1975.

You're welcome. I firmly believe the Big East should expect around $10 mil per team give or take a little depending on how well it is negotiated. Congrats to the new members who stand to get a good bump in revenue. While not as much as the other 5, it is still decent money.

I'm also excited about the future of C-USA. If UTSA, ODU and Charlotte can build some solid attendance numbers, we'll be ok. Like I said, I could see us getting $5 to $7 mil per team per year.
05-24-2012 04:54 PM
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piratefan1975 Offline
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RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 04:54 PM)piratefan1975 Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 04:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  This is the best argument I've seen that Big East football will get real money. Kudos, 1975.

You're welcome. I firmly believe the Big East should expect around $10 mil per team give or take a little depending on how well it is negotiated. Congrats to the new members who stand to get a good bump in revenue. While not as much as the other 5, it is still decent money.

I'm also excited about the future of C-USA. If UTSA, ODU and Charlotte can build some solid attendance numbers, we'll be ok. Like I said, I could see us getting $5 to $7 mil per team per year.

To clarify, I would expect around $10,000,000 per team based on All Sports members. The Big East is a hybrid, so here is the breakdown.

$10,000,000 x 10 all-sports members = $100,000,000 per year

Assuming a 70/30 split as some have suggested means $70,000,000 to football and $30,000,000 to basketball.

$70,000,000 / 13 football schools = $5,384,615 per football school

$30,000,000 / 18 basketball schools = $1,666,667 per basketball school

All sports members would bring home about $7,500,000 per year.
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2012 11:02 AM by piratefan1975.)
05-25-2012 11:01 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 10:22 AM)piratefan1975 Wrote:  [Image: 1attendancevstvrevenuepriortob12andacc.jpg]

As the title of the graph illustrates, this is based on 2011 numbers; prior to the movement of Pitt and Cuse to the ACC and TCU and WVU to the B12.

As each conference is on a different contract timeline, and the Big East is the last to come to market, this is not an apples to apples comparison. It's a snapshot in time where the Big East is working on a very old contract, and the other leagues are working on much newer contracts.

The Big East turned down a $150M/year offer from ESPN in 2011. This is much more representative and would make the comparison apples to apples.
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2012 11:20 AM by CougarRed.)
05-25-2012 11:19 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 10:28 AM)piratefan1975 Wrote:  I think the above graph shows a definite degree of correlation between market penetration (using attendance as a measure) and TV Revenues.

What happens when we take the same graph, but add in the ESPN offer to the Big East last year that they turned down. It was reported to be in the neighborhood of $11 million per football school. This was before the defections of Pitt, Cuse and WV. At that time, the Big East averaged 43,766 fans per game.

[Image: 3attendancevstvrevenueinclbedealpriortob12andacc.jpg]

For those who missed it--I'm looking at you, CougarRed.
05-25-2012 12:11 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 04:05 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 03:28 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I would think good attendance in a small market is a negative for TV. Already have a small market and a larger percentage are at the game.

Except for the fact that nearly every school with really good attendance is located in a small market. That would be pretty impressive though if all of our fans were actually located in the Greenville/New Bern DMA. That would mean we were getting nearly 15% of the DMA to show up on game days.

I think if you have high attendance in a small market area, that means that people must be coming from miles around to attend the games, which means that team must have wide area appeal.
05-25-2012 01:00 PM
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Goldenbuc Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-24-2012 11:15 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  These graphs tell me that (1) the Big East is currently severly undervalued, (2) the Big East-ESPN TV offer that was turned down was in the ballpark, and (3) that given market forces the next TV deal the Big East signs will likely be in the same balpark, but a little north on a per team basis.

Good stuff.

The Big East deal that was turned down was also based on 10 football playing teams...not 12. It wouldn't have been $11 million per school.
05-25-2012 01:01 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-25-2012 01:00 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 04:05 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 03:28 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I would think good attendance in a small market is a negative for TV. Already have a small market and a larger percentage are at the game.

Except for the fact that nearly every school with really good attendance is located in a small market. That would be pretty impressive though if all of our fans were actually located in the Greenville/New Bern DMA. That would mean we were getting nearly 15% of the DMA to show up on game days.

I think if you have high attendance in a small market area, that means that people must be coming from miles around to attend the games, which means that team must have wide area appeal.

That's the logical conclusion I would draw as well, but I think this is where non-AQ stigma hurts us. I think there is a generalization that non-AQ schools don't have wide area appeal and can only really be expected to draw any eyeballs within a 75 mile radius of campus (that's the number that network consultants were telling C-USA was what they would give you credit for). That's not the box ECU fits in, but I'm also fully convinced it's not that the Big East doesn't know that, it's that they don't care. It's not like the Big East doesn't know anything about East Carolina. It came down to us vs. you guys for the final spot in the Big East in 91, and it was a close enough decision that the commish at the time felt compelled to call and and go into detail about how close it was and why you were chosen. It's not like our appeal has declined since then, we average 20k more fans now than in 91, I believe are top 50 in merchandise sales and top 40 nationally in attendance. I think it comes much more down to who Notre Dame wanted (I think they were the loudest voice in the room), who the basketball schools wanted, our biggest supporter WVU was looking to get out more than to help, and I'll just guess that Louisville was completely against us since that trend has held true for about 20 years.
05-25-2012 01:14 PM
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piratefan1975 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
Wanted to bump this thread because it is relevant to what has occurred recently.

So, the Big East turned down a contract that was slightly above what the linear model suggested.

In exchange, we have a 20 million dollar deal for an 11-team conference; or approximately $1.82 million per team. Based on 2012 NCAA attendance figures, the nBe would have averaged 30,864 per game in attendance.

C-USA makes about 1.16 million per year and, according to 2012 figures, the new C-USA would have averaged 20,419 per game.

The nBe has 51% more attendance than C-USA. In addition, their TV contract reflects a 57% increase over C-USA. If those were plotted on the previous graphs, it would fall directly in line.

This is assuming that the C-USA tv contract, which was based on former teams; many of which will be in the nBe, is not re-negotiated downward.
02-27-2013 09:46 AM
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Post: #54
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.
02-27-2013 09:51 AM
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HuskieJohn Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(02-27-2013 09:51 AM)S11 Wrote:  Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.

03-lmfao

[Image: North_Carolina_State_Miami_Football_t607.JPG]

How about the NCAA forces all FBS teams to count actual attendance in the stands...who paid to get in.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2013 10:19 AM by HuskieJohn.)
02-27-2013 10:17 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(02-27-2013 10:17 AM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 09:51 AM)S11 Wrote:  Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.

03-lmfao

[Image: North_Carolina_State_Miami_Football_t607.JPG]

How about the NCAA forces all FBS teams to count actual attendance in the stands...who paid to get in.

1- Point still stands and might be even more evident based on the pic.

2- That's a 75k seat stadium and they reported 39k. So the expectation is that it's half-empty.
02-27-2013 10:28 AM
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Topkat Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(02-27-2013 10:28 AM)S11 Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 10:17 AM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 09:51 AM)S11 Wrote:  Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.

03-lmfao

[Image: North_Carolina_State_Miami_Football_t607.JPG]

How about the NCAA forces all FBS teams to count actual attendance in the stands...who paid to get in.

1- Point still stands and might be even more evident based on the pic.

2- That's a 75k seat stadium and they reported 39k. So the expectation is that it's half-empty.

LOL... you should probably focus attendance #'s on the top 4-5 schools in the standings of each conference in a given year.

Those are the ones that get the bulk of the tv time prime slots.

Lets just say some of the bottom half schools get defensive when questioned about their "reported" attendance #'s.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2013 10:41 AM by Topkat.)
02-27-2013 10:35 AM
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gocards#1 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(05-25-2012 01:01 PM)Goldenbuc Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 11:15 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  These graphs tell me that (1) the Big East is currently severly undervalued, (2) the Big East-ESPN TV offer that was turned down was in the ballpark, and (3) that given market forces the next TV deal the Big East signs will likely be in the same balpark, but a little north on a per team basis.

Good stuff.

The Big East deal that was turned down was also based on 10 football playing teams...not 12. It wouldn't have been $11 million per school.

Depending on who was added it would've easily been worth $11 million per school. Memphis, SMU, Temple, Houston, UCF? No. BYU, Navy, Boise, TCU? Maybe.
02-27-2013 10:38 AM
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PaulDel2 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(02-27-2013 10:38 AM)gocards#1 Wrote:  
(05-25-2012 01:01 PM)Goldenbuc Wrote:  
(05-24-2012 11:15 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  These graphs tell me that (1) the Big East is currently severly undervalued, (2) the Big East-ESPN TV offer that was turned down was in the ballpark, and (3) that given market forces the next TV deal the Big East signs will likely be in the same balpark, but a little north on a per team basis.

Good stuff.

The Big East deal that was turned down was also based on 10 football playing teams...not 12. It wouldn't have been $11 million per school.

Depending on who was added it would've easily been worth $11 million per school. Memphis, SMU, Temple, Houston, UCF? No. BYU, Navy, Boise, TCU? Maybe.

The TV deals are based upon 2 things and attendance is NOT one of the driving forces. There is a base value determined by the number of TV sets, i.e. market. Then here is the premium based upon the conference's "brand". Attendance is just one thing that is a result of the brand, it does not make the brand. For example, you see people all over the south wearing Bama gear but they never lived in Alabama nor have they ever stepped on campus. They just like to follow a winner. In the south we refer to them as WalMart fans (i.e. they bought the gear at the local WalMart). In the northeast and midwest they are referred to as subway alumni.

This is evident from recent TV deals. The base value (markets) appears to be $12-$16 million. That is where CUSA's contract fell and since they have replaced, and in some cases improved their markets, that amount will not decrease when the next TV deal is negotiated. The NBE, which went for the market models, got the same $12-$16 as the base and a premium for the Basketball brands of Memphis, Temple, UCONN and UC. The premium being $4 to $5 million. The rumors of the C7 contract are further proof. They will get the high end of the base for the markets, but the BB brand for G'town, 'Nova, Marquette, etc... especially in urban areas increase the value greatly....the premium.

The MWC deal is almost all premium and only related to Boise. Hence it is lower than the others.

TV executives don't care how many people are in the stands, they want you at home with the tube on.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2013 11:06 AM by PaulDel2.)
02-27-2013 11:04 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Does attendance really matter? A closer look regarding TV contracts....
(02-27-2013 10:35 AM)Topkat Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 10:28 AM)S11 Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 10:17 AM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  
(02-27-2013 09:51 AM)S11 Wrote:  Attendance is sometimes a good indicator but you certainly have significant outliers.

Boise has 36k, ECU has 50k but pretty much everyone except Pirate homers would agree that BSU is by far the bigger and more valuable brand.

Miami has 45k and ISU has 55k but nobody thinks the Cyclones pack as much tv punch as Da U.

So it's one of many metrics.

03-lmfao

[Image: North_Carolina_State_Miami_Football_t607.JPG]

How about the NCAA forces all FBS teams to count actual attendance in the stands...who paid to get in.

1- Point still stands and might be even more evident based on the pic.

2- That's a 75k seat stadium and they reported 39k. So the expectation is that it's half-empty.

LOL... you should probably focus attendance #'s on the top 4-5 schools in the standings of each conference in a given year.

Those are the ones that get the bulk of the tv time prime slots.

Lets just say some of the bottom half schools get defensive when questioned about their "reported" attendance #'s.

I was pointing out anomalies that show the neccessity for other metrics. Miami and Boise are two very good examples.
02-27-2013 11:06 AM
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