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Realignment Loose Ends-from main board
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stever20 Offline
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Realignment Loose Ends-from main board
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Realignment Loose Ends

This is not a thread about speculations or rumored moves. My only purpose is to pose some unanswered questions left by some things that have been reported during the flurry of activity that happened leading up to the playoff announcement, contract negotiations & reports, and other such stuff.

1. Has the proposed playoff model really eased realignment pressure, or merely shifted its focus?
There will be more involvement for teams in what had been labeled the BCS bowls but for which teams? It seems that now that the bowls negotiate their own tie-ins that the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, and PAC will have more access than ever and that the other conferences including the ACC will have either a reduced chance by comparison to the Big 4 (meaning likely only the 1 bid, the Orange Bowl, in spite of the increased number of spots) or practically no chance for the remaining conferences due to strength of schedule requirements. So, does this lessen the likelihood for appealing teams in these conferences to desire a move, or does it increase their unease with their present situations?

2. The playoff payoff scenario that has been proposed delves into the past performances of teams for a multiplier factor in determining payouts for conferences placing teams into the playoff structure. That multiplier applies to all teams in the conferences in question at the start of 2014. Does this lessen the likelihood of further realignment or increase the likelihood that further realignment will occur prior to the start of the 2014 season?
It would seem that teams that have had any BCS success or bowl success in the past 15 years would increase the payout of any conference which made the final four. So, teams like Florida State, Boise State, Miami, and Virginia Tech for instance would increase any of the Big 4's payout, and therefore their own, by moving.

3. All projected network earnings and auto-escalator clauses aside, what are the real Tier 1 and 2 payouts for the SEC, ACC, and Big 12?

While we can not definitively answer this question yet, unless we have real insider information, why have the details on these really not been forthcoming? Are the conferences waiting for the completion of realignment before they even know their actual gross earnings? Are the conferences hoping that by publicizing projections they can entice the prospects they need to meet those projections before they have to go public with what they will actually earn? Are the networks ambivalent over the direction of the economy and wrangling for assurances from the conferences which are heretofore unmentioned?

4. Are the debates over the "9th Conference Game" part of the assurance that the networks are looking for, and might that not also be a veiled encouragement of further expansion?
Face it, 16 teams divided into 4 pods (half divisions) which rotate to make a fluid division really won't require 9 conference games. It would require 7 at the least and allowing for a permanent rival would call for only 8. But in that case the additions of further teams would provide the extra content the networks are asking for, while not requiring conferences to schedule that extra game that robs the big schools of another home game against a lesser opponent. Therefore the only way to protect both the revenue streams of the schools who need 8 home games and to provide the networks with added content is to expand.

5. Since the guidelines for the playoff require strength of schedule and include the preference for conference champions will any conference outside of the Big 4 actually get their champion into the mix in most years? The safety valve here seems to me to be more for the networks than for anybody else. It appears that the way this is drawn up most years they get the champions of the Big 10, PAC, SEC, and Big 12. Should one of those champions prove to have a stinker (9-4 or even 10-3) of a record the networks could then opt for the ACC champion or perhaps another if needed. With a bias built into the formula that favors the Big 4 does that put more, or less pressure on prominent football programs to move to one of the Big 4 conferences?

6. With the financial disparity that will result from the top 12 bowl slots and the playoffs swinging even more favorably in the direction of the Big 4 will that cool realignment fever or fan its flames?

What are your thoughts? JR

My answers:
1- I think it's kind of a net neutral. Don't think this forced things one way or the other quite frankly.
2- FSU really isn't all that high in the ratings for the last 14 years. Sure they had the first few years- but that's been it. Last 8 years- Louisville been much higher. Don't think conferences would make moves though on those assumptions.
3- I think this is the $64 million dollar question.
4- Very few schools schedule 8 home games. Illinois, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Oregon(with p12 title game),Tennessee were the only schools in 2011 that played 8 home games. That's 4 8 home game schedules. With Michigan- that's a lot just in rotation. This year they go to Notre Dame and play Alabama neutral. Of the 4 naturally scheduled 8 home games- only Tennessee plays 8 home games this year. I think the 9 conference games is the wave of the very near future.
5- I think it easily could put pressure on the football powers outside the big 4 conferences to move into the big 4.
6- I think it'll cool realignment talk quite a bit.
07-12-2012 10:22 AM
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RE: Realignment Loose Ends-from main board
I think the mods of the CR board are little girls.
07-12-2012 12:27 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Realignment Loose Ends-from main board
I think to kind of expand on what I said earlier, we may see a feeling out period of 3-4 years. If a school like a FSU got left out 1-2 times 1st 4 years when they felt they were deserving for other big 4 conference schools, that could kind of force the issue sort of speak.
07-12-2012 02:12 PM
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