I originaly posted this as part of another thread. I took the time to play with some numbers readily available on the internet and since we discuss the topic of expansion and its pluses and minuses so much I'd like to see what others think.

Given this is a complicated matter and my breakdown is simplistic in nature I do think the following is representative of what EAC members can expect:

The Big East distributed 21.4 million dollars in bowl revenue amongst 8 football programs based on their on the field success.

For our purposes we'll assume each program gets an equal share of the pie. That would come to $2,675,000.00 per each of the 8.

To divide the pie by one more in a 9-team conference each team is looking at $2,377,777.77 SHOULD THE BOWL SITUATION REMAIN STATIC.

This is a loss of 297,222.23 per program.

Add in 2 million for the addition of the Liberty Bowl and assume the current bowl alignment remains in tact.

The loss becomes $75,000.00 per football program.

Basketball:

As of 2002 an NCAA basketball tournament unit was worth $100,671.00 per year for 6 years. The total value of one unit would then be $604,026.00 over the life of the unit. Every team that makes the tournament earns one unit. The maximum a team can earn is 5 units with a final four run; no units are awarded for the championship game. Therefore, a final four run is ultimately worth $3,020,130.00 to the conference that produces a final four program.

The Big East basketball members:
Providence- Will not go to the NCAA
Seton Hall- Will not go to the NCAA
Georgetown- Will earn a unit
Saint Johns- Will not go to the NCAA
Marquette- Will earn a unit
Depaul- will not make the NCAA
Villanova- Will make the NCAA
Notre Dame- Will not make the NCAA

Big East all-sport members:
Louisville- NCAA
UCONN- NCAA
PITT- NCAA
UC- NCAA
WVU- NCAA
Syracuse- NCAA
Rutgers- Possible NCAA
USF- Will not make any post season

I have 10 current Big East teams making the dance which I think is unlikely but I didn't want anyone to think I was giving the bball onlys the shaft.

Of those 10 teams lets assume one makes the final four (5 units) 3 make the sweet sixteen (9 units) 2 make the second round (4 units) and the remainder flame out in the first (4 units). That gives us 22 units, which over their 6-year rollover period would be worth $13,288,572.00 to the conference.

That amount would distribute roughly $830,535.75 per the 16 teams over the life of the units earned.

Now lets look forward.

Louisville- NCAA
UCONN- NCAA
PITT- NCAA
UC- NCAA
WVU- NCAA
Memphis- NCAA
Syracuse- NCAA
Rutgers- No post season (just for argument's sake, no offense intended)
USF- No post season

One program makes a run at a final 4 (5 units), one makes the elite 8 (4 units), 2 make the sweet 16 (6 units), two make the second round (4 units) and one flames out (1 unit). That gives us a total of 20 NCAA units with a value of $12,080,520.00 over the 6-year period.

Divided each member receives $1,342,280.00 over the 6 year life of the units.

$1,342,280.00
$830,535.75
---------------
$511,744.25 per team is what the all-sport members are roughly leaving on the table per 6-YEAR cycle in cumulative units. This number actually compounds from basketball season to basketball season if the above projection of performance is an average year in the new all-sport league.

Assuming all other variables remain in the same ballpark we'll take out the 75,000.00 in losses I projected should the BE add a 2 million dollar bowl with expansion and we come up with:

A net gain of roughly $436,744.25 in 'post season' football and men's basketball revenue distributions per member of the 9 team EAC.

The TV deal would be interesting. I would not be surprised to see the EAC get a larger payout per program from that stream also post split.

If you want to throw Notre Dame in as an affiliate member then go right ahead. It changes little on the surface.

damn.

that's fairly compelling.

Excellent stuff L-Yes

EXCELLENT!

Nice breakdown. Very easy to follow.

Your numbers are not correct L.You forgot about the TV contract division from 8 to 9.(150,000 per school)The is in addition to the $300,000 loss per school from the BCS bowl.The extra money for the non bcs bowl is also incorrect.You are adding a complete bowl payout in .In reality you are just trading bowls,thus if (?) the Liberty bowl is exchanged for another bowl this amounts to about to 50k to 75k per school and thats far from certain. Furthermore ,there is the postive money that you could earn without adding another unneeded 9th football team,by adding Army and Navy to a non BCS bowl and the tv revenue. gotten from Army and Navy from getting more tv appearnces from their tv contracts.You also got rid of the two non-bcs bowls with the loss of ND and the loss 3 games per year with BE schools.This costs 6 million.Your financial picture is totally without basis in football.Memphis the 44th largest market is nOt WORTH the price.Trading ND for memphis is a killer financially in football.Your figures for bb are not even close when it comes tv effects.The major part of the market for the BE is not and will not be in the south..

I tought it was establised that B-E gets same benifit from Army & Navy wheather B-E is 8,9,10 or 12 schools. Some # might be fudged, but what he did miss BB tourn in meadowlands could make more money divided by less teams. ND wants to be major player in BB. EAC could hold onto # 1 ranking, B-E BB schools drop 10th. ND stays with FB schools. If FB schools can prove thier losing money to ND. ND wants to hold 16 B-E together, ND can subsized 3 or 4 million a yr to FB schools.

The Meadowlands areana is going away soon.ND is helping the BE with 3 games per yeara(3million dolars) 2 sets of bowls (3 million per year) plus supporting BE football in the BCS plus adding to strength of league schedule.It would a PURELY DUMB move to force ND out.The myth of the need for a 9th team is created purely by those wanting into BE and the friends of cusa east.Killing the worth of the bb league is another dumb move.Why is a temple fan concerned about the BE?

tigersharktwo Wrote:The Meadowlands areana is going away soon.ND is helping the BE with 3 games per yeara(3million dolars) 2 sets of bowls (3 million per year) plus supporting BE football in the BCS plus adding to strength of league schedule.It would a PURELY DUMB move to force ND out.The myth of the need for a 9th team is created purely by those wanting into BE and the friends of cusa east.Killing the worth of the bb league is another dumb move.Why is a temple fan concerned about the BE?

First off most of us could care less about C-USA East. What we care about is the long term stability of the Big East and IMHO this hybred will not and cannot not last.

Nobody outside of Wilkie and Army52Mike wants to bring in more then maybe 1 or 2 more members and most of us would prefer ND and Penn State but we know that would not happen.

tigersharktwo Wrote:Your numbers are not correct L.You forgot about the TV contract division from 8 to 9.(150,000 per school)The is in addition to the $300,000 loss per school from the BCS bowl.The extra money for the non bcs bowl is also incorrect.You are adding a complete bowl payout in .In reality you are just trading bowls,thus if (?) the Liberty bowl is exchanged for another bowl this amounts to about to 50k to 75k per school and thats far from certain. Furthermore ,there is the postive money that you could earn without adding another unneeded 9th football team,by adding Army and Navy to a non BCS bowl and the tv revenue. gotten from Army and Navy from getting more tv appearnces from their tv contracts.You also got rid of the two non-bcs bowls with the loss of ND and the loss 3 games per year with BE schools.This costs 6 million.Your financial picture is totally without basis in football.Memphis the 44th largest market is nOt WORTH the price.Trading ND for memphis is a killer financially in football.Your figures for bb are not even close when it comes tv effects.The major part of the market for the BE is not and will not be in the south..

You're blathering.

I went to great pains to state that what I was doing was displaying post season revenue and how the new league might be able to maximize it.

I repeated over and over that my numbers had the EAC keeping its current bowl tie-ins while picking up the Liberty Bowl at a 2 million dollar payout.

I also noted that I had no television deal data included. That said I find it hard to believe that the all-sport members wouldn't take home more cash than they currently do when you consider nearly every conference basketball game would be of national importance.

The simple principle guiding this line of thought is that the earners get to keep their money by cutting deadweight and the conference gains long term stability. If you think the conference basketball championship would lose value because saint johns and seton hall are no longer involved I have an incredible business opportunity I'd like to discuss with you.

2006

tigersharktwo Wrote:Your numbers are not correct L.

(*sigh* once more unto the breach)

Fine, let's include your assertions and see what might happen, shall we?

Quote:You forgot about the TV contract division from 8 to 9.(150,000 per school)

No he didn't. He said "The TV deal would be interesting. I would not be surprised to see the EAC get a larger payout per program from that stream also post split. " Now, raise your hand if you think this nine member conference would NOT be worth more per school than what the BE programs are making now?

*keeps hands in lap*

That's what I thought. Thus, no net loss. If anything I'd bet real money this would be a money maker for these programs.

Quote:The is in addition to the $300,000 loss per school from the BCS bowl.

Net changes in bowl revenue were covered in his equations, so this point is covered.

Quote:The extra money for the non bcs bowl is also incorrect.You are adding a complete bowl payout in .In reality you are just trading bowls,thus if (?) the Liberty bowl is exchanged for another bowl this amounts to about to 50k to 75k per school and thats far from certain.

It is true that the "Memphis/Liberty" scenarios might require a bowl swap IF the BE adds the games in Toronto and/or NJ to their existing bowl lineup. If that happens then we must also consider that
a) The BE would be working with 5 bowls, meaning added income and options;
b) If the Liberty is simply a swap for another bowl it would, in all likelihood, be a lower paying bowl

Some might say the BE would need 9 teams to secure a 5th bowl. If that's not the case than perhaps a 9 member BE with deals with ND< Army and Navy might actually be worth more than 5 bowls?!!

Quote:Furthermore ,there is the postive money that you could earn without adding another unneeded 9th football team,by adding Army and Navy to a non BCS bowl and the tv revenue. gotten from Army and Navy from getting more tv appearnces from their tv contracts. You also got rid of the two non-bcs bowls with the loss of ND and the loss 3 games per year with BE schools.This costs 6 million.Your financial picture is totally without basis in football.

Welcome to dueling assumptions! TS2, you tend to think that most BE split/expansion sagas would cause the immediate divorce of any relationship between BE football and ND, Army and Navy. Since we don't know for sure it's safe to also assume that might not be the case. ND would still need help with Bowl tie-ins, whether they're in the BE, EAC, MVAC , MEAC... whatever. Even the Gator wouldn't want them every year, so it stands to reason that any fashion of BE football conference might be worth the relationship to ND.

Ditto the regular season arrangements for ND, Army and Navy. If all parties find the arrangements agreeable with BE football at the current 8 members, there is no reason to suggest that such/similar arrangements could not be pursued under a 9 member lineup. Thus any assumption that a 9 member BE lineup would have to work without these agreements (which aren't even in practice, yet) is patently immature, if not likely incorrect. Thus your final comments...

Quote:Memphis the 44th largest market is nOt WORTH the price.Trading ND for memphis is a killer financially in football.Your figures for bb are not even close when it comes tv effects.The major part of the market for the BE is not and will not be in the south.

can only be construed as a string of possibilities. In terms of impacting bowl and TV contracts the BE might not actually be trading ND for Memphis but simply adding Memphis to the fold. (Or trading the 7 Catholic schools for Memphis, etc.)

Bottom line, many of the factors considered in these expansion ideas are indeed assumptions, but reasons you're offering for debunking said ideas are at the least equally presumptious.

- - - - -

So what if the Meadowlands Arena goes away? I hear there's to be a new football stadium that will be constructed not to far away. One with a dome and the capacity to host large basketball events.

Good info L-yes
part of another post.....
I really believe when the Big East renegotiates their football contract, it will probably double or more. The TV ratings for our bowl games this year with three being in the top ten is only the start. We have teams that are growing in national appeal and status...and our stock is rising. How many years are left on our contract anyway?

tigersharktwo Wrote:The Meadowlands areana is going away soon.ND is helping the BE with 3 games per yeara(3million dolars) 2 sets of bowls (3 million per year) plus supporting BE football in the BCS plus adding to strength of league schedule.It would a PURELY DUMB move to force ND out.The myth of the need for a 9th team is created purely by those wanting into BE and the friends of cusa east.Killing the worth of the bb league is another dumb move.Why is a temple fan concerned about the BE?

You obviously have an anti Memphis agenda. I don't think you would want Memphis if Federal Express wrote a $100 million dollar check to the league to gain entry.

Real and full numbers.

Yes ND has an arrangement with the BE football worth 6 million per year.If you toss ND of bb this goes away.You call this the ND vs memphis amount.Also if you split the league in a fashion ND does agree to,or admit a school ND does not agree with,this also is likely.Next ,ND supports BE football in the BCS and it strengthens the BE football.Memphis or central fla cannot do any of these.Thus the myth of the 9th football school based on the stand of both those wanting in the BE and those fans in Louisville who dislike ND but like memphis,is an extremely poor decision both financially and operationally.Yes the 44th market in the usa entering the BE is at best a marginal factor,So instead diving the tv revenue 4 ways it is now divided 9 ways.The marginal contribution of the liberty bowlin a switch for another bowl amounts to 500k for 9 schools(BIG DEAL).I am waiting for fedx contribution?maybe Elvis's eststate will contribute ?Army and Navy's deals are based on northeastern football links not on southern links.Their fans and tv market are in the northeast.

tigersharktwo,

The BE opened itself up to this talk when it went out of its regional footprint once (VT and Miami) to create a football league and again (UofL, UC and USF) to save its football playing members. Two of the final three invited could, I think, really care less about your NE footprint (they just needed access to BCS dollars and media coverage). Also, they want what will be best for their programs in the long term (short term financial gain doth not equate to long term). At the same time at least two of these new schools and I know at least one of the old ones don't like allowing ND to have its cake and eat it too. These schools, I feel, believe ND needs to join the BE in all-sports or get the you know what out.

Fan feelings especially from selected outside the BE groups about conference memberships hold minmal value as compared to the financial strength of the BE.With regard to bb the Meadowlands will not be the location for the BE tournament.Those who own msg and the hartford civic center where the woman's bb tournament are one and the same.The reason the woman's tournament is there is to maximize BE revenues.Also with regard to the level of observance of NCAA regulations is a very strict interpretation.Just as in the case of UC,Memphis and its hc would be subject BE interpretations if(?) they were selected.The tv market for BE bb revenues would be hurt severely overall by the loss of many key markets(Philadelphia and DC),thus saying each sides gets 50% is completely inaccurate.If there is a split the total of the two would not equal the current level of revenue.Memphis CANNOT replace Philadelphia and DC.

Quote:The tv market for BE bb revenues would be hurt severely overall by the loss of many key markets(Philadelphia and DC),thus saying each sides gets 50% is completely inaccurate.If there is a split the total of the two would not equal the current level of revenue.

I strongly disagree. I think the UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, Pitt, USF, and Rutgers side of the current basketball contract accounts for more than half of the revenue.

nflsucks Wrote:

Quote:The tv market for BE bb revenues would be hurt severely overall by the loss of many key markets(Philadelphia and DC),thus saying each sides gets 50% is completely inaccurate.If there is a split the total of the two would not equal the current level of revenue.

I strongly disagree. I think the UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, Pitt, USF, and Rutgers side of the current basketball contract accounts for more than half of the revenue.

Objective observers would agree with you.

As for the Notre Dame factor that TS2 hitches his entire argument to I just don't see how Notre Dame can be this monolithic force that controls the Big East football membership. As the waves from ACC expansion subside and the hysteria surrounding the BCS and the Big East fades away Notre Dames position to dictate evaporates. That said the best place for Notre Dame's athletic department to remain an independant in the football world and a major player in all-sports is as an affiliate of the EAC/BE. Just make it a 10 member basketball conference with 18 conference games and lets get it on.

tigersharktwo Wrote:Fan feelings especially from selected outside the BE groups about conference memberships hold minmal value as compared to the financial strength of the BE.With regard to bb the Meadowlands will not be the location for the BE tournament.Those who own msg and the hartford civic center where the woman's bb tournament are one and the same.The reason the woman's tournament is there is to maximize BE revenues.Also with regard to the level of observance of NCAA regulations is a very strict interpretation.Just as in the case of UC,Memphis and its hc would be subject BE interpretations if(?) they were selected.The tv market for BE bb revenues would be hurt severely overall by the loss of many key markets(Philadelphia and DC),thus saying each sides gets 50% is completely inaccurate.If there is a split the total of the two would not equal the current level of revenue.Memphis CANNOT replace Philadelphia and DC.

Who mentioned Memphis?