(02-12-2013 07:42 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  ...easy for you to act like children. You are forgiven for being brats.

whatever.

(02-12-2013 08:04 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-11-2013 11:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think Notre Dame joining the ACC fully would stop teams going to the Big Ten. Even if Notre Dame was in the ACC, the ACC would be at about 21-22 million dollars. I mean, really it'd be 3-4 football games difference. The Big Ten would still be able to offer anyone tv for close to 40 million.

That $40 million Big Ten number is merely a projection, and may be a dubious one, at that.

How badly does ESPN want to steal ND from NBC? What would they pay? Would many/most/every ND game(s) be on prime time on ABC or ESPN?

The NBC renewal numbers being discussed have to be pretty high, maybe double what they were paying for ND. Lets open up an NBC/ESPN bidding war.

Would ESPN (and ND) insist on a grant of rights? How much of an increase would they have to pay to secure ND and a grant of rights?

Does ESPN tear up the ACC contract and re-negotiate it in its entirety to secure ND?

Does ND demand that ESPN allow the ACC schools (including ND) to re-acquire (or keep in ND's situation) "Tier 3" rights as a condition of it joining the ACC and signing on with ESPN?

Who knows? Maybe, maybe not. But, if so, would that jump start a new, real ACC Network? If so, how much would that pay?

Who would be school #16? UConn? Navy? Cincy? What increase in value would that school bring? UConn basketball? When does the CBS contract for the Army/Navy game end?

Lots of questions to be answered before you dismiss such an option out of hand.

Thanks TerryD........eye opening.
Things are just starting to get interesting.

You are really dreaming if you think 40 million could be a dubious projection. Timing is everything and the Big Ten has that in spades.

You say ND would be on ESPN/ABC prime time all the time. Well, a few problems.
1- SEC has a lot of prime time ESPN appearances locked into their contract.
2- Big Ten has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
3- Big 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
4- Pac 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC apperanaces locked into their contract

so kind of hard for that to happen.

And kind of tough to see the 6 schools that supposedly declined a GOR to sign one just for Notre Dame. Not when SEC and Big Ten are awash with more money.

ACC network would be at least 3rd behind the Big Ten and SEC. Right there with the Pac 12.

Look, I want ND to remain a football independent.

I don't have the answers to the questions raised in my post.

I have no real allegiance to any conference. I dislike all of them. It is just that I dislike Jim Delany and the Big Ten the most.

But, lots of people keep talking about "pressure", "heat" and "forcing" when it comes to Notre Dame.

Hell, if some of you guys are right and ND is going to be "forced" to join a conference, then why not the ACC and why not soon?

I am speculating that ND may be willing to take a small money, big status hit to "save" the ACC, but only under a certain scenario.

My speculation is based on the scenario that ND now truly believes that conference membership is inevitable in the near future. I don't know how likely that scenario is, I hope not very high.

(I want ND to remain an independent. This is just "tea leaf" thinking based on recent reports.)

They already decided that the ACC is their preferred home last October. If full membership is a given, why not pull the trigger right now to save their preferred home?

A bonus would be to mess over Jim Delany's meglaomaniac dreams.

If they think that they can stay independent, ND can get something like $25-30 million from the NBC renewal.

They then obviously are not going to join the ACC for $20-23 million. They will ride out independence and let the ACC chips fall.

But if ND is convinced it has to join a conference and ESPN wants ND badly enough.........

ND is recruiting big time in the Southeast under Brian Kelly. Many of their star players are from the Southeast (Everett Golson, Stephon Tuitt, Louis Nix, etc..).

After all this realignment crap started up again in 2010, ND decided last fall that it did not want to remain in the Big East and absolutely did not want to join the Big Ten (in full) or the Big 12 (as a partial member).

The ACC has what ND wants. It offers private schools, Southeast recruiting exposure , good minor bowl access, the Orange Bowl deal, great basketball, baseball, lacrosse and very good academics.

ND felt that the ACC provided the best fit for it in all aspects.

Now, ND does not really want to join a conference in football. Independence is their #2 priority, after playoff access.

My speculation about ND, ESPN and the ACC only involves one particular scenario.

IF (and only if) ND's administration decides that it must join a conference in the near future, then (and only then), it might talk to the ACC and ESPN prior to re-signing with NBC.

ND makes less TV money right now than Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota. It would be the easiest, most seamless thing in the world to join the Big Ten and rake in the money if that were ND's only goal.

It is not. It wants no part of the Big Ten Conference. It has rejected the Big Ten numerous times.

Look, I want ND to remain independent in football, forever. I intensely dislike the idea of ND ever being in a football conference, any and all of them.

I have no rooting interest in the ACC, at all.

But, if ND decides that it must be in a conference, then why not the very one that it just partially joined last fall, the one that it sees as its best "fit"?

Then and only then, ND might be interested in how much ESPN would pay for ND to join the ACC in full.

A lot of people talk about "forcing" ND to join the Big Ten or the Big 12. ND might decide that it would rather be in the ACC, if required to join a conference.

That depends on two things:

1) Will ND soon decide that it has no choice but join a conference?, and

2) How much will ESPN pay the ACC if ND becomes a full member? Will it be "enough"?


If the answer to both is "yes", then ND might just decide to join and "save" the ACC.

A bonus might be to mess up the Big Ten's realignment plans. ND doesn't like the Big Ten stalking it.

(02-11-2013 06:35 PM)brista21 Wrote:  They have to go to 9 but there's no way they go to 10 without a 13 game schedule coming into place. I maintain going to 9 with the "sandwich divisions" makes the most sense. Penn State would get a permanent crossover with Ohio State and get Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland annually which is what they want to see for their schedulle.

Little support for the "sandwich" alignment. It will be East-West with either Mich St or Purdue joining NE, IA, MN, WI, IL and NW

(02-12-2013 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  You are really dreaming if you think 40 million could be a dubious projection. Timing is everything and the Big Ten has that in spades.

You say ND would be on ESPN/ABC prime time all the time. Well, a few problems.
1- SEC has a lot of prime time ESPN appearances locked into their contract.
2- Big Ten has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
3- Big 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
4- Pac 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC apperanaces locked into their contract

so kind of hard for that to happen.

And kind of tough to see the 6 schools that supposedly declined a GOR to sign one just for Notre Dame. Not when SEC and Big Ten are awash with more money.

ACC network would be at least 3rd behind the Big Ten and SEC. Right there with the Pac 12.

I have seen BTN projections bandied about in 2010 and 2011 that were debunked in the study published in the St. Louis paper.

The projected BTN payout number ended up including all sources of Big Ten income.

Also, it remains to bee seen if Rutgers ends up getting the BTN on the higher carriage fee level in NYC.

So, yes, I am dubious.

ABC put the ND games with Michigan State, Oklahoma and Southern Cal on ABC in prime time last year and got huge ratings.

ND had all of its games last year televised coast to coast on over the air networks, NBC, ABC and CBS. Did any other school in America do that?

Hell, CBS traveled all the way to Dublin, Ireland to broadcast the opening ND game with Navy across America at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time, six a.m. Pacific.

The Navy game. Think about that.

If you think that ABC/ESPN is not eager to acquire all of ND's television rights and would not maximize their prime time telecasts, well then, I think that you are smoking some good ganja.

I do believe that TerryD would like for Notre Dame to stay independent in football.

I do, but there is a growing part of me that wants ND to do something to throw a big monkey wrench into the big realignment plans of the expansionistas in the Big Ten and Big 12.

Terry, I take it you have no complaints about expansionistas in the SEC...

(02-12-2013 09:58 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I do, but there is a growing part of me that wants ND to do something to throw a big monkey wrench into the big realignment plans of the expansionistas in the Big Ten and Big 12.

I guess I am one of the few non Notre Dame/ACC school member that would rather have the current agreement with the Irish. 5 Games with the Orange Bowl Tie-in works for me.

Plus, I am kind of old school...Indy Status is ND Brand...they should do everything to protecct that.

(02-12-2013 09:47 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-12-2013 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  You are really dreaming if you think 40 million could be a dubious projection. Timing is everything and the Big Ten has that in spades.

You say ND would be on ESPN/ABC prime time all the time. Well, a few problems.
1- SEC has a lot of prime time ESPN appearances locked into their contract.
2- Big Ten has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
3- Big 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC appearances locked into their contract.
4- Pac 12 has a set number of prime time ESPN/ABC apperanaces locked into their contract

so kind of hard for that to happen.

And kind of tough to see the 6 schools that supposedly declined a GOR to sign one just for Notre Dame. Not when SEC and Big Ten are awash with more money.

ACC network would be at least 3rd behind the Big Ten and SEC. Right there with the Pac 12.

I have seen BTN projections bandied about in 2010 and 2011 that were debunked in the study published in the St. Louis paper.

The projected BTN payout number ended up including all sources of Big Ten income.

Also, it remains to bee seen if Rutgers ends up getting the BTN on the higher carriage fee level in NYC.

So, yes, I am dubious.

ABC put the ND games with Michigan State, Oklahoma and Southern Cal on ABC in prime time last year and got huge ratings.

ND had all of its games last year televised coast to coast on over the air networks, NBC, ABC and CBS. Did any other school in America do that?

Hell, CBS traveled all the way to Dublin, Ireland to broadcast the opening ND game with Navy across America at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time, six a.m. Pacific.

The Navy game. Think about that.

If you think that ABC/ESPN is not eager to acquire all of ND's television rights and would not maximize their prime time telecasts, well then, I think that you are smoking some good ganja.

All of those games were on other conferences packages. Meaning it filled one of their quota's if you will. If ND wasn't playing at Oklahoma, they would have still been forced to have a Big 12 game on at that point.

I'm saying they CAN'T put all of ND's games on prime time. It's impossible to do. They have other agreements with SEC, Big Ten, Pac 12, and Big 12 that have prime time requirements. They have to show the SEC on ESPN on Saturday night's x number of times.. Same with the other conferences. ABC/ESPN may want to- but they have no room at the inn sort of speak. They can't just say, screw that, we're showing Notre Dame.

I do know that the Big Ten gets about 16 mil for TV and the rest is ncaa units etc. Right now they get about 25 mil in rev distro. ACC gets about 15. Big Ten will be going up considerably with the new tv deal in a few years- They'll get 20 mil per school at least for tier 1 and then they have Big Ten network for another 10 mil. Add the other 9 mil in rev(likely higher) and they'll be getting at least 40 million dollars. And, this is before the BCS money. Probably gets closer to 45-50 million. Compare to the ACC who would be close to 30 million.

(02-12-2013 12:03 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(02-11-2013 11:33 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-11-2013 07:01 PM)EerMeNow Wrote:  

(02-11-2013 06:00 PM)Big 12 Wrote:  I hope they go to ten. Notre Dame has to be feeling the heat.

Agree with this. Raising the number of conference games is going to squeeze ND....deliberately or otherwise.

Maybe that will "force" ND to join the ACC in full to stabilize things and shitcan further expansionista dreams?

So who will be ACC #16, Terry, Cincinnati, UConn or West Virginia?

Maryland! LOL

(02-12-2013 10:07 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Terry, I take it you have no complaints about expansionistas in the SEC...

No, I pretty much dislike them too.