(02-13-2013 10:54 AM)Chappy Wrote: (02-13-2013 09:57 AM)CougarRed Wrote: ...Duke and UNC...
Nobody adds two schools from the same state anymore, let alone two schools located 10 miles apart.
You are falling into the trap of thinking markets mean everything, when time and time again, it has been proven incorrect. That was the entire Big East expansion plan, and look where it got them. The First Big Ten expansion move was Nebraska, which has very little market, but brings national cache. If the Big Ten was to make such a move, Duke would be very valuable because they are a name brand basketball team. Regardless of what you hear about football driving expansion, etc, basketball is FAR more valuable as Tier 3 programming than football (This is why Kansas makes more money on their Tier 3 rights than Oklahoma) which helps the Big Ten Network, and is a big money making sport for the Big Ten overall. But to your other point, you did mention that Duke's "market" is in NJ and NY. Well, guess which market the Big Ten is going after?
If the Big Ten were able to cherry pick teams from the ACC (and to take a line from Frank, if they had to struggle that hard to get Maryland to move, who is in their footprint, was struggling financially, and had no real rivals in the conference, and they STILL did it basically kicking and screaming, getting a Duke, UNC, or UVA would be near impossible - unless another moved forced them to.
For a move to 18 to work for the Big ten, they need another whale so to speak, as you essentially have two nine team conferences and you need anough big fish to carry each side. That means, this only works if they get Notre Dame, the only whale left who fits their model, and might be had at that point - I think the Texas ship has sailed, and with the Big Ten in the catbird seat a program like FSU which doesn't fit what they want, would not be asked (different then when you are in a position of weakness and have to take what you can get). After Notre Dame, the teams that make the most sense are Virginia and North Carolina, culturally, geographically, and, everything else. Virginia Tech and Clemson sort of fits the FSU mold, which leaves Duke, the next most valuable team (Duke is actually more valuable then VPI and Clemson in many regards).
But this is mostly a model in futility, because it's not very likely.