(03-07-2013 01:02 PM)XLance Wrote: The ACC added Pitt and Syracuse for basketball content.
ESPN is about to lose the C7 basketball inventory to Fox.
The SEC is still learning to play basketball (getting better).
ND wants to start a network but the lesson of the LHN is that one school can't supply enough content......look for a ND/ACC network.
Look for the ACC to eventually add Cincinnati for more of a mid-western presence to fill the C-7 loss for ESPN.
Maryland does not stand a chance with the lawsuit.
The SEC is ESPN's football conference (to the ACC being their basketball conference). Any SEC expansion will be to the west.
I agree on some, disagree on others.
1- ACC adding Pitt and Cuse: I'll take your word for this one but I figured it was the two programs that added media footprint and closely fit the ACC profile.
2- ESPN is losing the C7 but has pretty much everyone else. They'll be fine.
3- SEC hoops isn't great but is solid. Definitely behind the ACC.
4- LHN is starting to get more deals signed. The BTN took time to get going so I expect it with both the LHN and P12N. That said, I don't see them with their own network. They have a solid following everywhere but which specific DMA's will riot if ND's channel isn't on their cable system?
5- ND/ACC network.... with what inventory? All the valuable stuff is sold off. Yeah you might get some exposure and what not but not big bucks by any stretch unless ESPN just gives inventory back.
6- I don't see you guys adding Cincy unless you lose 2. Besides ESPN will already have them in the Big East now that they matched the NBC offer. I don't see ESPN paying the ACC more to pick them and UConn up when they already have them at chump change rates. They'd have to pay 34 million extra to do that when they already got em! UConn and Cincy vs Pitt/Cuse/UL/UNC/Duke/etc is worth some money but 34 million is probably well north of that figure.
7- Maryland stands a pretty good chance. I will be very surprised if the figure isn't below 40mm and frankly expect it to be much lower. The ACC is trying to enforce an exit fee prior to it's implementation, prior to a team giving official notice, against it's own bylaws, and with a clear intent to discourage a team from leaving. That gives UMD a strong argument. That said, stranger rulings have happened.
8- ESPN doesn't care about "football conference" or "basketball conference". They simply want marquee programs. So if they run the numbers and it makes more sense to steer ACC marquees to other leagues they control then that is what they will do. If not, they won't. Neither of us know how that will play out.
9- Who would they take in the West?
a- Texas, Tech, TCU, and BU won't be targeted with A&M in the fold and the only one they really want (UT) has rejected them in the past and is not only wanting to hang onto the radioactive LHN but also is politically handcuffed to Tech which the SEC likely won't take just to get UT anyway. Dead end.
b- The SEC has approached OU in the past and has been rejected due to not accepting OSU. OU admin had admitted there was an offer and the unofficial reports pinned it on OSU and OU's not desiring to join a league with the recruiting repuation of the SEC.
c- KU's biggest market (KC) is at least partially delivered by MU. It's not likely to be valuable to them.
So there is not one western addition in the Big 12 other than Iowa State that adds any new market to their network.
9- On top of that you have the GOR that isn't foolproof but adds significant issues.
10- If the SEC was going to double up in a market they would likely take FSU. The Noles likely want in and give them a national brand with no political issues like UT or OU have. If you have to double down in a state... a huge one is where you do it.