RE: Realignment Speculation. "Not Factual!!!"
Alright....I will throw Temple out of the mix for the B12.
2016 Expansion (B1G TV deal open)
B1G-> Kansas, Missouri (send Purdue to the East)
SEC-> TCU (improves the academics of the SEC)
B12-> Cincinnati, Houston
AAC-> Rice, Army
CUSA-> Arkansas St.
With the B1G only taking 1 school from the B12, Kansas can sue for damages to get out. The damages to the B12 will be minimal.
2023 Expansion (B12 TV deal open)
PAC-> Texas, TT, OU, OSU (match the B1G at 16 schools)
B12-> SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Memphis (backfill time)
AAC-> Georgia St, UAB, ODU, Marshall (AAC heads East)
CUSA-> GS, Troy, ULL, NMSU (SBC gets weaker)
Looking at things this way the B12 will probably be raided way before the ACC GOR expires. I don't think Texas will allow itself to sit in a dying conference.
2026 Expansion (ACC TV deal open)
B1G-> Virginia, Georgia Tech
SEC-> Duke, North Carolina
ACC-> WVU, Cincinnati, UConn, USF (ACC takes from B12/AAC)
B12-> Tulane, So Miss (loses AQ status for sure)
AAC-> UMass, Charlotte, MTSU (mirror image of CUSA East 3.0)
CUSA-> App St, Texas St, USA (SBC finally dies)
Overall Takeaways:
1) The B12 is doomed by not expanding beyond 10. They should have locked down Louisville and Cincinnati while they had the chance and go to 12. That would have forced UConn into the ACC. The B12 could have added Notre Dame into the mix too.
2) The ACC will survive as an AQ conference even if UVA, GT, Duke and FSU leave. That is because they still have quality additions to work with in the East and would have no problem poaching WVU once the B12 GOR expires.
3) I will go out on a limb and say B1G expansion probably does not happen in 2016. The B1G may wait and see how the new playoff shakes out before trying to do anything.
Revised 2023 Movement
2023 Expansion (B12 TV deal open)
B1G-> Kansas, Oklahoma
SEC-> Kansas St, Oklahoma St
PAC-> Texas, TT, UNM, UNLV (Las Vegas market!)
ACC-> WVU, Cincinnati (raids the B12)
B12-> SMU, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane, Rice (non-AQ time)
AAC-> Georgia St, UAB, ODU, Marshall, Charlotte, MTSU (AAC heads East)
MWC-> UTEP, NMSU (MWC back to 12)
CUSA-> GS, Troy, ULL, NMSU, App St, Texas St, USA, Ark St (SBC is pronounced dead)
Likely it will be one massive extinction event that turns the B12 into a non-AQ and destroys the SBC in one quick swipe.
Then everyone has new alignments ready for 2025 in advance of the next playoff deal for 8 teams and even more cash.
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