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Big 12 Mega-thread. (Doomsday theories and Luck/UCF rumors)
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Post: #21
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
A few months ago, had this dialog with a long-time college athletics administrator.

His response:
The Big XII will exist as long as Texas wants it to exist and the odds are just too long that Texas will ever not want the Big XII to exist. They've walked up to that cliff a lot of times and every time they have they've looked at the travel involved for the kids and the boosters and the likely consequences of having to play schools with just as a big of a name and similar sized budgets as well as what happens if they start playing one and two time zones away and always reached the conclusion that the Big XII looks pretty good.

But he said if that day comes when Texas leaves, just get ready because it will be the Power 4 and the Group of 6 when the dust settles.
10-09-2013 04:36 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 04:33 PM)lew240z Wrote:  Since we're engaging in fantasies, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Georgia Tech go to the B1G to make 18. Then Florida State, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Boston College go the Big 12 to make 18. Or, maybe, NC State and VT go to the SEC and the SEC and Big 12 both are at 16. Syracuse and goes to the AAC. Notre Dame, as usual, will do whatever it wants.
Why not go a step further? Leave UNC out of it altogether. No conference should want a school that promotes academic excellence while offering fake classes for many of their students - including ALL their athletes...
10-09-2013 04:38 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 04:27 PM)S11 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 04:17 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  It's not about money or per school pay out, it's about the fact that it's easier to disband a 10 team league vs. a 14 team league.

2- Disbanding isn't much easier, ONE vote is all that would change. 8 vs 9. It's pretty hard to do already.

For discussion purposes only, this is not me agreeing with it, but I believe his rationale is that with ten teams, you only need to find homes for 8 of the teams to get those teams to disband. With 14 teams, whatever the number you have to get to - percentage-wise I think it would have to be 10 or 11- finding new homes for the extra teams, the ones they don't want now (need to find them homes to get enough votes for yes) becomes that much harder.

I tend to agree with your stance S11, but I think that is what he is saying. Whether true or not is a different story, but I don't think it's a notion that can be summarily dismissed either. It would lead credence to the question as to why the smaller schools, the ones seemingly more affected by potential loss of revenue, favor expansion far more than the bigger schools who would be less affected by sharing money with more teams.

It is a thought with at least some merit.
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2013 04:50 PM by adcorbett.)
10-09-2013 04:44 PM
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lew240z Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 04:38 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 04:33 PM)lew240z Wrote:  Since we're engaging in fantasies, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Georgia Tech go to the B1G to make 18. Then Florida State, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Boston College go the Big 12 to make 18. Or, maybe, NC State and VT go to the SEC and the SEC and Big 12 both are at 16. Syracuse and goes to the AAC. Notre Dame, as usual, will do whatever it wants.
Why not go a step further? Leave UNC out of it altogether. No conference should want a school that promotes academic excellence while offering fake classes for many of their students - including ALL their athletes...

You are right, because no school in the B1G has ever violated NCAA rules.03-wink
10-09-2013 04:47 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 04:47 PM)lew240z Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 04:38 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 04:33 PM)lew240z Wrote:  Since we're engaging in fantasies, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Georgia Tech go to the B1G to make 18. Then Florida State, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Boston College go the Big 12 to make 18. Or, maybe, NC State and VT go to the SEC and the SEC and Big 12 both are at 16. Syracuse and goes to the AAC. Notre Dame, as usual, will do whatever it wants.
Why not go a step further? Leave UNC out of it altogether. No conference should want a school that promotes academic excellence while offering fake classes for many of their students - including ALL their athletes...
You are right, because no school in the B1G has ever violated NCAA rules.03-wink
Ha ha. Good one... 04-cheers
10-09-2013 04:49 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
10-09-2013 06:26 PM
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Rabbit_in_Red Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
If the P5 becomes the P4...

1) The playoff system is expanded to 8 deFacto. The Conference Championship Games become your round of 8.
--a) This benefits the fans because the championship is determined ONLY by play on the field. Period. No pollsters. No committees. Just play on the field as fans have been wanting since the dawn of time.

--b) This is good for conferences because more emphasis is put on their championship games. This leads to more TV revenue as the CCGs are more valuable.
-----1a) This is also good for conferences hoping for a D4. Now, all money is kept amongst themselves. No worries about pesky "upstarts" or "BCS busters" sneaking in and taking their coinage. It all goes into their pockets. More money, and more money staying in THEIR pockets. The rich get richer, screw the poor.

--c) This is good for TV networks because more people will tune into CCGs that actually MEAN something (a bid into the playoffs). This means they can then turn around and charge more for ad space during those games due to an increase in viewership. That, even after the increased pay out to conferences = more money in THEIR pockets as well.

2) This is a final end game for conference realignment.
--a) This benefits TV networks who have come right out and said that they are weary of realignment and having to constantly up payouts. This would be it. The end game. No more beyond this.

--b) This benefits fans because they no longer have to worry about what's going to take place 2, 3, 5 years down the road for their favorite teams. Those who are in are in, those who are out...sorry about your luck.

--c) This benefits conferences because it's the end game. The "cloak and daggers" are at an end. The Cold War and attempts to snipe and steal are over. Pax Romana is here.

Everybody wins. Nobody loses but the G5(6?) and the very few schools that might get left out. $$$$ is plentiful amongst the P4, the TV networks, and fans have a comprehensive way to follow their favorite team's path to a national championship.
10-09-2013 07:39 PM
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Rabbit_in_Red Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
The only way to achieve this nirvana however, is to divvy up one of the conferences amongst the other 4...and there's one that's much easier to carve up now than the rest.
10-09-2013 07:39 PM
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Mr. Derfman Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
I don't see Texas or any school as big as Texas tying themselve to a contract that they don't have a exit plan for. Then the question is whether the other schools would want to stay in the Big 12 if Texas pushes to leave. So the whole issue of it taking 8 school to dissolve the league is mute. If Texas, OU or even Kansas decides they what to leave, it will start a chain reaction of school not wanting to be the last to leave. That is the danger of the 10 team league that only has 1 or 2 marque teams. Let be real, at this point if one of the 3 teams i mentioned feels like they want to leave, you are left with nothing more than AAC, MWC, or the old BE (no disrespect to the AAC or MWC).
10-09-2013 07:50 PM
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Post: #30
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 07:50 PM)Mr. Derfman Wrote:  I don't see Texas or any school as big as Texas tying themselve to a contract that they don't have a exit plan for. Then the question is whether the other schools would want to stay in the Big 12 if Texas pushes to leave. So the whole issue of it taking 8 school to dissolve the league is mute. If Texas, OU or even Kansas decides they what to leave, it will start a chain reaction of school not wanting to be the last to leave. That is the danger of the 10 team league that only has 1 or 2 marque teams. Let be real, at this point if one of the 3 teams i mentioned feels like they want to leave, you are left with nothing more than AAC, MWC, or the old BE (no disrespect to the AAC or MWC).

If Texas and Oklahoma were to leave the Big 12 and join the PAC for example, the Big 12 would be toast. The other 8 schools would never be able to add anyone worth while to make it legit. Memphis? Cinci? UCF? Maybe the Big 12 could add 2 of those schools with Texas and Oklahoma and it would work, but without TX and OK the league would not be a P5 league anymore. Just my humble opinion. I really believe it will happen sooner rather than later. OK wants in the PAC bad. Texas is the glue that holds this together. If TX drops the longhorn network, their gone to the PAC with OK. I know Texas approached the Big 10 a few years back and were basically turned down. (Footprint issues mostly) If the Big were ever to change it's mind though and allow Texas in, Texas would drop the longhorn network in a heartbeat.
10-09-2013 08:09 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...
10-09-2013 08:10 PM
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Post: #32
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 08:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...

Texas simply does not care about the other schools.....
10-09-2013 08:12 PM
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Knightsweat Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 08:12 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...

Texas simply does not care about the other schools.....

Man, you know nothing about Texas politics. If you think those other Texas schools don't have the stroke to make UT's life hell, you're very much mistaken.
10-09-2013 08:36 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Post: #34
The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 08:36 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:12 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...

Texas simply does not care about the other schools.....

Man, you know nothing about Texas politics. If you think those other Texas schools don't have the stroke to make UT's life hell, you're very much mistaken.

I'm wondering if UT has a hand shake deal with A&M since Texas didn't raise a fuss when they left. UT knew they would be left holding the bag.
10-09-2013 08:38 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
The only way this gets done is if all 10 schools find a new home in the P4.

The only way that gets done is if some conferences expand beyond 16 and there is some cooperation or possibly some preliminary moves of teams between 2 or 3 of the remaining 4 conferences to make room for a new divisions, or at least some geographical integrity.

Now if the PAC could find enough value in two schools to go to 14 it becomes much more possible.

Let's say that the PAC could find enough value in Texas Tech and T.C.U. to gain a foothold in the Texas TV market.

Let's also say that the ACC was willing to let two schools move to the SEC provided the SEC took Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

And let's say that the Big 10 took Iowa State as part of the agreement to get Kansas and Oklahoma to add to Connecticut for their move to 18.

The ACC could add Texas, Baylor, Tulane as a bridge to Florida, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

The PAC would stand at 14, the SEC, ACC, and Big 10 at 18 each. The PAC could then take its time developing any future additions up to 18, but would remain free to stay at 14 or 16 if they chose to do so.

You would have accommodated all of the present P5 schools into the P4 and added the two schools remaining that probably most deserve to be included (Connecticut and Cincinnati).

It's not a total win for anybody, but would probably be a fairly equitable way to bring things to a conclusion.

The SEC gets 3 maybe 4 new states. Two that they covet and two that would add markets with decent schools that might not have been their first choice but will help them to grow with balance.

The Big 10 gets 3 new states, two national brands and 1 solid hockey and basketball school, and a close to home fit as the price of the deal.

The ACC bridges around the Maryland loss with West Virginia picks up a piece of Ohio, and adds a solid 26 million potential sets with two good academic adds in Texas and a nice bridge with AAU Tulane to connect Florida essentially with Texas for a Gulf division.

Now will something like this happen? I doubt it, but it would take a Herculean effort like this to get it done.
10-09-2013 08:52 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 08:12 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...
Texas simply does not care about the other schools.....
We're talking about the Texas legislature, and not the University of Texas. And if you think the other B12 Texas schools have no power there, you may be proven sadly mistaken...
10-09-2013 09:00 PM
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Post: #37
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
A&M took advantage of 3 major factors:

1) An alumni govenor who wouldn't push the issue like he could have

2) Timing the move while the legislature was out of session (only the govenor could have called a special session and as said above, he would not do so)

3) A&M leaving had no affect on the bottom lines of the other school's conference profits. In fact it can be argued our leaving improved it since it raised their shares.

UT doesn't have that political protection and there is no way their leaving would not hurt the other schools conference profits.
10-09-2013 09:14 PM
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Post: #38
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 08:38 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:36 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:12 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 08:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(10-09-2013 06:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  I still come back to this:

Politically, UT cannot change conferences without Tech. However, UT CAN go Independent as an intermediate step to changing leagues. The Longhorn network provides the financial cover for UT to pull this off.

IF (big "if") the Big 12 sees major changes, it will likely be as the result of UT going independent.
Are you sure Texas can go independent? I'm not. The Texas legislature have to realize this is the first step in Texas cutting the other schools out of the picture...

Texas simply does not care about the other schools.....

Man, you know nothing about Texas politics. If you think those other Texas schools don't have the stroke to make UT's life hell, you're very much mistaken.

I'm wondering if UT has a hand shake deal with A&M since Texas didn't raise a fuss when they left. UT knew they would be left holding the bag.

UT AND Baylor threw a hissy fit when aggy left. The only school that didn't say a word was Texas Tech. As for as Texas politics go, why in the world would the Texas Leg care about private schools in Waco and Ft. Worth. Bob Bullock isn't getting out of his grave to save Baylor and Ken Starr can only spew his "Baylor being left out hurts the Texas economy" crud for so long. Universities in Dallas and Houston will rightfully laugh at that considering the hand they have been dealt the last 19 years.

For better or worse, UT and Texas Tech are tied to each other. UT and a couple of PAC schools are helping Tech prepare for AAU inclusion in the future. As long as 8 members of the Big 12 find a home, the Big 12 is dead and I hope it happens sooner than later.
10-09-2013 09:28 PM
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Post: #39
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
Given the thread on Fox overnight ratings, No Big 12 school will be joining the Pac. Fox is getting killed with their Pac games.
10-09-2013 09:33 PM
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Post: #40
RE: The Big 12 will blow up soon. (My Prediction)
(10-09-2013 09:14 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  A&M took advantage of 3 major factors:

1) An alumni govenor who wouldn't push the issue like he could have

2) Timing the move while the legislature was out of session (only the govenor could have called a special session and as said above, he would not do so)

3) A&M leaving had no affect on the bottom lines of the other school's conference profits. In fact it can be argued our leaving improved it since it raised their shares.

UT doesn't have that political protection and there is no way their leaving would not hurt the other schools conference profits.

UT can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants. They are only tied to one school in Texas and that is Texas Tech. The small private schools in Waco and Ft. Worth might get upset but Texas taxpayers don't provide $$$ for those schools and honestly have no say in what happens to their P5 status.
10-09-2013 09:36 PM
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