http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id...ilblog-178

Rick from Union City, Calif., writes: Hey Adam, when (not if) the BIG expands, and if they do think about adding KU and OK and possibly TX … do you think that then they will finally invite Mizzou to help create a BIG western (old Big Eight) division? I really don't think that VA or UNC will ever leave the ACC ... stopping any further southern expansion. Any thoughts?

Adam Rittenberg: Ah, expansion questions, how I've missed thee. The problem with Oklahoma and Texas is the likelihood of having to add other schools such as Oklahoma State and Texas Tech that don't fit into the Big Ten from an academic/profile standpoint. Remember Gordon Gee's email comment about Texas's "Tech problem?" That's still an issue. Same with Oklahoma regarding Oklahoma State. Moreover, the Big Ten is clearly making a push toward the East Coast and its big markets. These schools don't really fit into that vision.

Me: A.R. usually doesn't sayeth much more than he knoweth.

I agree that the East Coast is what they're looking towards. They've secured a true foothold (maybe its more than that) in the New York DMA with Rutgers. They've secured a true foothold in the DC & Baltimore DMAs. And the Philadelphia DMA is now surrounded by 3 schools rather than just at the periphery of 1 school's sphere of influence. The smart money move if the ACC hadn't put a GOR in place would have been to try and pry out UNC and UVA/VT in addition to RU and UMD.

A year or so ago Rittenberg said the same thing (more than once). On the surface, with the addition of Maryland and Rutgers, it's a very easy observation to make, but I didn't think it to be indicative of future moves.

Since he probably knows more than he can say (but still relatively removed from being an "insider" given how secretive the Big Ten conducts its business) I'm backing of my thinking that Oklahoma is a "target". Now if/when Big 12 schools become "available", then it's a new ballgame.

The reason I think the B1G in the East Coast corridor will show itself to be a sleeping giant no longer versus other regions is there are already a ton of B1G alum as a captive audience looking for a way to tie back into the conference; I was one in NY/NJ for 10 years. It's got to be easier to get existing B1G fans plugged in seeing and supporting their teams through new members, i.e. Rutgers, Maryland versus teams in other parts of the country that would need great incentives to consider membership a fit.

I find this thread to be interesting. So would UConn be a target if the eastern US is the target?

Or does the B1G make a move to grab UVA and another ACC school? The ultimate settlement of the Maryland issue could be the blueprint of what it really cost to extract an ACC member in the future.

(03-02-2014 03:04 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  I find this thread to be interesting. So would UConn be a target if the eastern US is the target?

Or does the B1G make a move to grab UVA and another ACC school? The ultimate settlement of the Maryland issue could be the blueprint of what it really cost to extract an ACC member in the future.

In my opinion UCONN is a possibility, but I think I'm the only guy saying that. There's plenty of reason to think otherwise.

The interesting thing about putting a price tag on something is that somebody may actually buy it; even if the price is ridiculous.

I would think UConn would be close to the top of the list of the current list of realignment usual suspects if they were in AAU based on universities that are "leaning in". However, as we are at the beginning of a new college football playoff system, I think conferences with a strong likelihood of being a regular participant in the "Football Final Four" will see an opportunity to access dollars that are potentially skyrocketing in the next decade or two. This will make it an interesting horse race to see how future conference revenues trend.

I think total revenue disparity between conferences / teams will be the main driver of more teams "leaning in" related to switching conferences. As Sea Blue says and I agree it won't be a high exit fee, GOR, etc. that stops teams from moving, as at the end of the day those are just things related to the cost of doing business; and this new football playoff is certainly going to be big business! I think one can reference the LBO's from the 80's to see that no price tag is too high for deals not to be done and moves made!


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(03-02-2014 03:04 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  I find this thread to be interesting. So would UConn be a target if the eastern US is the target?

Or does the B1G make a move to grab UVA and another ACC school? The ultimate settlement of the Maryland issue could be the blueprint of what it really cost to extract an ACC member in the future.

You never say never but it's really hard to see another ACC school looking to leave; FSU and Clemson stayed put, the Tobacco Road schools dont' have a reason to leave, it's where VT has wanted to be since the 50s, and Pitt and Syracuse really fit the mold.

What schools on the East Coast would make the jump? The only school in the American is UConn; no one else fits the profile. Would Georgia Tech come in alone, with Maryland as their closest conference neighbor?

FSU and Clemson stayed put for now but I think they will have a desire to receive SEC invite even before GOR is officially over. I really think football playoffs will effect everything bigger than anticipated! I also think that Syracuse and Pittsburgh will eventually get tired of going to Carolina for tournaments and will want to weigh options.


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(03-02-2014 05:21 PM)SeaBlue Wrote:  

(03-02-2014 03:04 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  I find this thread to be interesting. So would UConn be a target if the eastern US is the target?

Or does the B1G make a move to grab UVA and another ACC school? The ultimate settlement of the Maryland issue could be the blueprint of what it really cost to extract an ACC member in the future.

In my opinion UCONN is a possibility, but I think I'm the only guy saying that. There's plenty of reason to think otherwise.

The interesting thing about putting a price tag on something is that somebody may actually buy it; even if the price is ridiculous.

There has been an interesting development with regard to the ACC network. It appears that ESPN is granting a version of one that amounts to little more than streaming. Furthermore it may be enough for ESPN to claim that they do not owe the 2 million per team per year that they promised to pay if a network was not forthcoming.

If this is indeed the case by 2018 both the Big 10 and SEC will be significantly on their way to eclipsing ACC income by as much as 10 million per year depending on how the respective Big 10 and SEC networks payout.

As for a couple of things about Texas and Oklahoma, Texas is basically unobtainable to the Big 10. ESPN wants all of the nation's most profitable program's rights. They will never have that if Texas joins the Big 10. As to Oklahoma they are not even close to AAU status and they are really no longer the dominant brand they were 20 years ago. They do have a national following and are worth adding, but not if their inclusion is taking a spot from North Carolina or Virginia who deliver states with 6 and 7 times the population of Oklahoma and which both are AAU schools.

With regards to Eastward expansion by the SEC and Big 10 the best thing that could happen to them would be for the PACN to sell 50% of its ownership to ESPN in exchange for the Texas/Oklahoma package. I believe they might well go ahead and add Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State and one of the Texas private's to get to twenty. ESPN and FOX could still share the PAC's broadcasts and Texas would make ESPN money under those circumstances in that 50% of a Texas / Oklahoma / Kansas enhanced PAC would be a money maker. Now how does that help the Big 10 and SEC?

With the problem of trying to figure out how to land Texas and Oklahoma out of the way everyone's cleared vision would be refocused on the ACC. It takes the movement of 12 schools to disband the ACC. With the Big 12 out of the way taking down the ACC forces Notre Dame to finally decide where they will join. Syracuse is a better addition than UConn and they are only recently removed from AAU status. Duke, North Carolina and Virginia would come as a package. If Notre Dame chose the Big 10 finally you would have 1 slot left. Pittsburgh, Boston College, or perhaps Georgia Tech could vie for that spot. By your standards both for AAU status and for geographical integrity I would rule out Georgia Tech and perhaps B.C. which if excepted would be a good market with a viable hockey program. Connecticut I guess might be considered. But one of those programs completes your conference and eliminates 6 ACC schools.

There are now six to go to make it happen. The SEC takes Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson, Florida State, and finishes out with possibly Georgia Tech, possibly Pitt if not taken by the Big 10, Louisville, or Miami. I would think Miami and Georgia Tech if available would complete the footprint.

The point guys is that if the PACN sells rights to ESPN then all product can be consolidated under 3 conference contracts, the number of total teams reduced to 60, all of them with conference network content to be marketed, and the shares of the playoff money increased by 2/5ths for all conferences, but only shared among 6 more teams for the SEC and Big 10 and 8 more for the PAC. That's a big chunk of cheese for the movement.

The Big 10 doesn't violate AAU perhaps with the exceptions of Syracuse (a near miss like Nebraska and a national basketball brand with a good mid tier football product most years), Notre Dame (absent by choice from AAU), and they solidify their hold on New York, pick up N.D.'s national following, while adding academic stalwarts in Duke & Virginia not to mention 15 million plus viewers.

The SEC owns Florida, picks up the same 15 million plus viewers in Virginia and North Carolina and secures some of it's bitterest rivalries as their own.

Everyone's money is multiplied.

Out are T.C.U., Wake Forest, Louisville, West Virginia, and either Pitt or Boston College.

If we divide up the Big 12 among us we will never reach the market potential for either of our conferences that the East Coast holds for us because that single move will keep us from together taking enough of the ACC members to dissolve their GOR. Falling behind significantly in revenue by 2018 will make them start looking. We just need to still have the occupancy to make it happen.

Thoughts?

Why don't we add Kansas, we'd be the home of the birthplace of Football and the home of the Founder of Basketball. How cool would that be? But I'd be happy with Boston College with one of UConn, Syracuse, Pitt.

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I think that the Big Ten could make an attractive offer to Virginia Tech that would allow them to get out of UVA's shadow.

Just like TAMU did from Texas by moving to SEC


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(03-03-2014 08:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Thoughts?

Georgia Tech is AAU certified.

Notre Dame isn't close to being offered by the AAU or Big Ten, even if they wanted in.

Texas is big enough to do whatever they please, and Disney might not forever pay for their affection.

Milk costs too much.

(03-03-2014 08:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If this is indeed the case by 2018 both the Big 10 and SEC will be significantly on their way to eclipsing ACC income by as much as 10 million per year depending on how the respective Big 10 and SEC networks payout.

So is that enough to break up the band? Many of those ACC schools would still be better off in the ACC (or otherwise prefer to remain branded "ACC").

I think the ACC brand is worth too much to break it up, but hard to see the future is.

(03-05-2014 06:24 PM)SeaBlue Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 08:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Thoughts?

Georgia Tech is AAU certified.

Notre Dame isn't close to being offered by the AAU or Big Ten, even if they wanted in.

Texas is big enough to do whatever they please, and Disney might not forever pay for their affection.

Milk costs too much.

You need to go to an Agriculture school. You can't get milk out of steer anyway.

Delany had already gotten clearance to offer Notre Dame.

And if you want to play Yoda you need to change your board name. Hairy Green Booger might be more appropriate than SeaBlue. Besides you need to know the Sith names of your opponents. Slive is Darth Dixie. But if you guys wanted Georgia Tech I don't think the SEC would care. We'll just take Pitt instead and we both get a new market.

(03-05-2014 08:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  We'll just take Pitt instead and we both get a new market.

I don't think Pitt fans want Pitt to be in the Big Ten, so that works. As for Georgia Tech in the Big Ten, the SEC would be OK with that?

(03-05-2014 08:41 PM)SeaBlue Wrote:  

(03-05-2014 08:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  We'll just take Pitt instead and we both get a new market.

I don't think Pitt fans want Pitt to be in the Big Ten, so that works. As for Georgia Tech in the Big Ten, the SEC would be OK with that?

We don't want 'em. They chose to leave in 1964 because of an on field incident with Alabama (actually Ga Tech was in the right). But the question came up about them in 1992 and the general feeling was "shrug" they still play football at Tech? Really only Auburn cares about them (and of course UGA). The Tech / Auburn rivalry started in 1892 and was played every year (except for 1 during WWII) until 1978 and occasionally since. It had been the oldest rivalry in the South.

P.S. Is that a Picasso of Yoda?

(03-05-2014 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  P.S. Is that a Picasso of Yoda?

I believe Pitt for Tech is a reasonable trade then.

Except, I find the thought of slicing up the ACC rather depressing. On the other hand, Duke in the SEC would give me yet another reason to hate Duke. Or, I forget, do we get Duke?

p.s. Just testing the artwork as my new sig.

(03-06-2014 06:51 PM)SeaBlue Wrote:  

(03-05-2014 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  P.S. Is that a Picasso of Yoda?

I believe Pitt for Tech is a reasonable trade then.

Except, I find the thought of slicing up the ACC rather depressing. On the other hand, Duke in the SEC would give me yet another reason to hate Duke. Or, I forget, do we get Duke?

p.s. Just testing the artwork as my new sig.

Yes it would be a case of self loathing. You guys get Duke.