(05-02-2014 01:08 PM)BleedsGreen33 Wrote:  I think all of you all are drunk. No G5 school is touching the PLAYOFF spots. The way I understood it there will a BCS (or whatever you call them now) bowl that is not in the rotation that will have an at-large spot for the highest ranked G5 school. The whole system is a joke anyways. Anytime they say they are sending teams they THINK are better instead of the teams that DESERVE to be there shows it's fixed and corrupt. If Marshall runs the table and is 13-0 and for the most part did it convincingly no AAC or MWC team is jumping ahead with a loss. The AAC is going to be down this season anyways. Louisville is gone, UCF will be down, Houston will be alright, ECU will be good but will not go undefeated, Memphis blows, temple blows just as hard, Tulane is nothing to brag about, UCONN is terrible, Cincy is decent, who knows what Tulsa will look like, and USF is terrible.

The MWC is nothing special anymore now that Peterson has left Boise.

Marshall will be in the top25 going into or after the MTSU game. It all depends on how far outside we start the season. If we are 35th or closer then we will be in the top25 somewhere between win 4 and win 6.

I don't think anyone was arguing about making the playoff spot. Just the G5 champion spot in the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta.

(05-01-2014 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 05:33 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 05:11 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 04:52 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  If we're the only undefeated G5 champ we'll be the rep.

Here are the Sagarin numbers. An undefeated Marshall would likely beat out an undefeated Sun Belt team and possibly even an undefeated MAC team (although that is less likely); but an undefeated MWC or AAC team is almost certainly going to get the access bowl birth. It is not even clear if the AAC or MWC team couldn't even afford to have one loss.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

How closely did this past season's sagarin numbers follow the year before? Without looking I would think there would be a huge difference. And with that there's the problem when comparing what a team might do based off last years numbers. Then you have the addition data based off of playing schools that are no longer in the conferences that might lower of raise your rating just from playing them.

To me it's a useless tool to use

I doesn't matter anyway. The committee isn't going to look at computer rankings or the AP poll. They have already said they will NOT be looking for the most "deserving" team---they will be picking the "best" team. I read that as they will do what they want.

If they really think a 2 loss MW team is better, that's who will get the slot. If they think an undefeated Marshall is better---Marshall will get it. But any discussion of who was ranked higher in previous years, or if an undefeated team is 'automatic" for the G5 slot is meaningless. An undefeated team barely slipping by subpar competition may not impress the committee as much as a two loss team that dropped a pair of close games to strong P5 squads and blew out all the G5 teams they played. We just don't know. If its close, they may just give the bowl to the school the bowl would most likely prefer. For instance, if its between NIU and ULL and the Sugar Bowl is the venue---guess who the committee will say won by an eyelash.

The reports from the committee are not saying what you are writing. They have stated they will be looking first and foremost at SOS.

We finished ranked #10 in 1999 with a SOS of:

#93 BCS
#108 Sorenson
#111 Sagarin

(05-02-2014 03:07 PM)baruna falls Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 05:33 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 05:11 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 04:52 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  If we're the only undefeated G5 champ we'll be the rep.

Here are the Sagarin numbers. An undefeated Marshall would likely beat out an undefeated Sun Belt team and possibly even an undefeated MAC team (although that is less likely); but an undefeated MWC or AAC team is almost certainly going to get the access bowl birth. It is not even clear if the AAC or MWC team couldn't even afford to have one loss.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

How closely did this past season's sagarin numbers follow the year before? Without looking I would think there would be a huge difference. And with that there's the problem when comparing what a team might do based off last years numbers. Then you have the addition data based off of playing schools that are no longer in the conferences that might lower of raise your rating just from playing them.

To me it's a useless tool to use

I doesn't matter anyway. The committee isn't going to look at computer rankings or the AP poll. They have already said they will NOT be looking for the most "deserving" team---they will be picking the "best" team. I read that as they will do what they want.

If they really think a 2 loss MW team is better, that's who will get the slot. If they think an undefeated Marshall is better---Marshall will get it. But any discussion of who was ranked higher in previous years, or if an undefeated team is 'automatic" for the G5 slot is meaningless. An undefeated team barely slipping by subpar competition may not impress the committee as much as a two loss team that dropped a pair of close games to strong P5 squads and blew out all the G5 teams they played. We just don't know. If its close, they may just give the bowl to the school the bowl would most likely prefer. For instance, if its between NIU and ULL and the Sugar Bowl is the venue---guess who the committee will say won by an eyelash.

The reports from the committee are not saying what you are writing. They have stated they will be looking first and foremost at SOS.

That's exactly what I am writing. In the past, a undefeated team was always considered most deserving----even if they didn't beat anyone. They were there based on never having been beaten. Now, the committee might say, that undefeated team didn't beat anyone and didn't look all that great beating several fairly weak teams. On the other hand, team "X" has 2 loses, but beat one P5, lost to a pair of ranked P5's by very tight scores, and whipped all the G5 teams it played by at least 2 touchdowns or more. The committee may think that the 2 loss team would beat the tar out of the undefeated team. In this case, the committee will pick the "best" team (despite it's two losses) rather than the most "deserving" team (who was undefeated).

It looks to me like the best schedule for a G5 team in this era better have a couple of measuring stick games on it. If you have a schedule like Marshalls---I'd run up the score. Not very sportsman like, but you have to show you are significantly better than the competition somehow. With that schedule--theres only one way to do it---margin of victory.

I think it will take a bowl win for Marshall to crack the top 25 given the schedule, UNLESS a couple of CUSA teams have breakout years and Marshall beat them.

(05-02-2014 01:19 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 01:08 PM)BleedsGreen33 Wrote:  I think all of you all are drunk. No G5 school is touching the PLAYOFF spots. The way I understood it there will a BCS (or whatever you call them now) bowl that is not in the rotation that will have an at-large spot for the highest ranked G5 school. The whole system is a joke anyways. Anytime they say they are sending teams they THINK are better instead of the teams that DESERVE to be there shows it's fixed and corrupt. If Marshall runs the table and is 13-0 and for the most part did it convincingly no AAC or MWC team is jumping ahead with a loss. The AAC is going to be down this season anyways. Louisville is gone, UCF will be down, Houston will be alright, ECU will be good but will not go undefeated, Memphis blows, temple blows just as hard, Tulane is nothing to brag about, UCONN is terrible, Cincy is decent, who knows what Tulsa will look like, and USF is terrible.

The MWC is nothing special anymore now that Peterson has left Boise.

Marshall will be in the top25 going into or after the MTSU game. It all depends on how far outside we start the season. If we are 35th or closer then we will be in the top25 somewhere between win 4 and win 6.

I don't think anyone was arguing about making the playoff spot. Just the G5 champion spot in the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta.

Actually, I was.
And I'll restate it, this time a little more generically so I don't sound like a homer --
Any undefeated G5 team with two quality OOC P5 wins - will most likely qualify for the top 4 playoff.
Read that carefully and you'll realize just how unlikely that is to come to happen on the field. But the point is (if my assumption is true) that some of the G5 teams (with strong OOC) have a chance to win a national title IF they run the table. will it happen in the first 6 years of the new system? Probably not. Will we have some G5 teams still in the running for one of those playoff spots heading into Oct and Nov in the next few years? Yes. It's a win win, we get to feel like we have a chance at a spot, before the big boys crush us on the field, or somebody stumbles in conference. But this way they still have to prove it on the field...

(05-02-2014 05:59 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 01:19 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 01:08 PM)BleedsGreen33 Wrote:  I think all of you all are drunk. No G5 school is touching the PLAYOFF spots. The way I understood it there will a BCS (or whatever you call them now) bowl that is not in the rotation that will have an at-large spot for the highest ranked G5 school. The whole system is a joke anyways. Anytime they say they are sending teams they THINK are better instead of the teams that DESERVE to be there shows it's fixed and corrupt. If Marshall runs the table and is 13-0 and for the most part did it convincingly no AAC or MWC team is jumping ahead with a loss. The AAC is going to be down this season anyways. Louisville is gone, UCF will be down, Houston will be alright, ECU will be good but will not go undefeated, Memphis blows, temple blows just as hard, Tulane is nothing to brag about, UCONN is terrible, Cincy is decent, who knows what Tulsa will look like, and USF is terrible.

The MWC is nothing special anymore now that Peterson has left Boise.

Marshall will be in the top25 going into or after the MTSU game. It all depends on how far outside we start the season. If we are 35th or closer then we will be in the top25 somewhere between win 4 and win 6.

I don't think anyone was arguing about making the playoff spot. Just the G5 champion spot in the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta.

Actually, I was.
And I'll restate it, this time a little more generically so I don't sound like a homer --
Any undefeated G5 team with two quality OOC P5 wins - will most likely qualify for the top 4 playoff.
Read that carefully and you'll realize just how unlikely that is to come to happen on the field. But the point is (if my assumption is true) that some of the G5 teams (with strong OOC) have a chance to win a national title IF they run the table. will it happen in the first 6 years of the new system? Probably not. Will we have some G5 teams still in the running for one of those playoff spots heading into Oct and Nov in the next few years? Yes. It's a win win, we get to feel like we have a chance at a spot, before the big boys crush us on the field, or somebody stumbles in conference. But this way they still have to prove it on the field...

100 % agree. OOC scheduling will matter much more now than it has in the past - especially for the g5.

I think there is a world of difference from hoping for an undefeated season (which I surely do) and expecting an undefeated season (which I highly doubt.) If any team from C-USA can pull off an undefeated season they will definitely be in the conversation about going to the access bowl, simply because of the gargantuan accomplishment of a 13-0 season. There are simply too many teams that have the capability of beating anyone in this conference. For Marshall, MTSU and Rice beat us last year and FAU almost did. OOC Conference, Ohio has beat us three straight years. And we play six games on the road...any one of which could trip us up if we don't have our A game. Our last trip to Birmingham was a loss. I also think that WKU and ODU have some potential to pick us off, if we don't play well.

Sure, I wish Louisville was still on our OOC schedule. The year we went 13-0, Clemson was our only regular season, BCS, OOC conference and we beat them during the last minute of play and we ended up #10. If the Cards were still on the schedule we wouldn't be having this conversation. But they aren't. But it's still going to be very difficult to go undefeated...I don't care who you are.

Great post, cnelson203. Best wishes to the Herd (with the minor exception of the trip to Norfolk). It's doable if the team keeps it to one game at a time.