Balanced, imo, commentary on Marshall's upcoming season. First in a series by this blogger on teams in the G5 who are in the conversation about the Access Bowl. May be worth reading the series as it unfolds.

http://g5conferencenews.blogspot.com/201...nd+Talk%29

His conclusion seems spot on: "Cato and company will have to transcend their away game blues and the coaching staff will have to work hard to transform the talented Marshall players from simply individuals on the football field to a cohesive, community minded team. If these two things happen during the regular season, then Thundering Herd fans have a very good shot at watching their team play in the Access Bowl."

I think this is accurate, although I'll add that I think we're going to need a LOT of help from other G5 teams in order to get that access bowl (assuming we run the table). The author states we'd get a preference over other 1-loss teams, but I'm not comfortable making that statement. What if UCF runs the table with 1 loss to Penn State? What if ECU has 2 losses to South Carolina and VT/UNC? but goes undefeated in AAC with a win over VT/UNC? Hard to argue our schedule would put us ahead of those scenarios IMO.

Almost no chance. Marshall will be a good team, but that schedule is brutally awful.

(05-06-2014 02:27 PM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  Almost no chance. Marshall will be a good team, but that schedule is brutally awful.

I see what you did there.

I think if an AAC team only has one loss, and it is early in the season, they will get picked ahead of an undefeated marshall. However, don't think that there will be any one loss AAC teams. I think it would be really hard to say Marshall is more deserving of the access spot if ECU's only loss was to . . . say top 10 USC. That means we would have 10 straight wins over teams @VT, @ Cincy, UNC, UCF, Tulane. Obviously this is dependent on those teams having good seasons which may not happen. Just my unprofessional opinion.

(05-06-2014 03:55 PM)EastCarolinaU. Wrote:  I think if an AAC team only has one loss, and it is early in the season, they will get picked ahead of an undefeated marshall. However, don't think that there will be any one loss AAC teams. I think it would be really hard to say Marshall is more deserving of the access spot if ECU's only loss was to . . . say top 10 USC. That means we would have 10 straight wins over teams @VT, @ Cincy, UNC, UCF, Tulane. Obviously this is dependent on those teams having good seasons which may not happen. Just my unprofessional opinion.

Yea, you and I are on the same page. Even if VT and UNC have sub-par seasons, that's going to be more impressive than any win on our schedule. I'd argue a 2-loss ECU team with 2 losses out of those 3 P5 conference games would be more deserving than an undefeated Marshall.

Depends, if Marshall were to go 13-0 and not really have a close call, a bunch of blowouts, and some of their opponents have better than expected seasons, who knows.

This year is looking like it could be similar to 1999. We went 12-0 against a not great schedule, but we were dominant. We out scored opponents 442-134 in those 12 games and only had 2 games within one score (at Clemson and against WMU in the MACC game). Everyone thought we were overrated then we beat top 25 BYU in a bowl 21-3 and it really wasn't that close. We held BYU to -16 yards rushing and 202 total yards. BYU was averaging 30 ppg.

The point is, you can play a bad schedule and still be a very good team. I don't think we'll go undefeated, but if we do, and do it in impressive fashion, we'll be fine.

Unfortunately Herd's cupcake schedule kills any chance of access bowl.

If we can be undefeated going into the championship game and let's say NT is undefeated as well then we should get it. As long as the AAC has a one loss team.

(05-06-2014 08:21 PM)banker Wrote:  Depends, if Marshall were to go 13-0 and not really have a close call, a bunch of blowouts, and some of their opponents have better than expected seasons, who knows.

This year is looking like it could be similar to 1999. We went 12-0 against a not great schedule, but we were dominant. We out scored opponents 442-134 in those 12 games and only had 2 games within one score (at Clemson and against WMU in the MACC game). Everyone thought we were overrated then we beat top 25 BYU in a bowl 21-3 and it really wasn't that close. We held BYU to -16 yards rushing and 202 total yards. BYU was averaging 30 ppg.

The point is, you can play a bad schedule and still be a very good team. I don't think we'll go undefeated, but if we do, and do it in impressive fashion, we'll be fine.

Agreed, Marshall has a monumentally bad schedule but also has a very talented team. Doc might have to take a little heat and not only beat teams but blow them out. Unlike some belly aching that went on here last year about ECU and our scores, I would agree that Marshall is potentially playing for a Access Bowl this year and that has huge implications for Marshall and financial implications for CUSA so Marshall should keep their boot on the throat of every team they play except for maybe the last 5 minutes of a game. If Marshall is barely beating teams with a weak SOS then the critics will be lined up with knives. If you are beating teams by 3+ TD's most games then the critics will still argue SOS but you will have the defense that you played who was on your schedule and crushed them.

I don't think we'll go undefeated and I don't think the AAC will have any team with 1 loss or less. UCF lost some good players, as did ECU. The best program in UL is gone so UC may win the league but I think they'll have 2-3 losses.

(05-07-2014 06:20 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:21 PM)banker Wrote:  Depends, if Marshall were to go 13-0 and not really have a close call, a bunch of blowouts, and some of their opponents have better than expected seasons, who knows.

This year is looking like it could be similar to 1999. We went 12-0 against a not great schedule, but we were dominant. We out scored opponents 442-134 in those 12 games and only had 2 games within one score (at Clemson and against WMU in the MACC game). Everyone thought we were overrated then we beat top 25 BYU in a bowl 21-3 and it really wasn't that close. We held BYU to -16 yards rushing and 202 total yards. BYU was averaging 30 ppg.

The point is, you can play a bad schedule and still be a very good team. I don't think we'll go undefeated, but if we do, and do it in impressive fashion, we'll be fine.

Agreed, Marshall has a monumentally bad schedule but also has a very talented team. Doc might have to take a little heat and not only beat teams but blow them out. Unlike some belly aching that went on here last year about ECU and our scores, I would agree that Marshall is potentially playing for a Access Bowl this year and that has huge implications for Marshall and financial implications for CUSA so Marshall should keep their boot on the throat of every team they play except for maybe the last 5 minutes of a game. If Marshall is barely beating teams with a weak SOS then the critics will be lined up with knives. If you are beating teams by 3+ TD's most games then the critics will still argue SOS but you will have the defense that you played who was on your schedule and crushed them.

Agreed, but it's going to be a balancing act of blowing teams out for the Access Bowl and getting the 2nd and 3rd teamers meaningful reps for the future. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

AAC and C-USA arguing over the Access slot means one thing... it'll go to a MAC school.

An undefeated Marshall would rise about most other G5 schools. I can certainly see a MWC or AAC team moving ahead of the Herd if their only loss is to a highly ranked team.

I don't think Marshall will go undefeated, though, so it won't matter.

I really wish the national media would hold Louisville to the fire for backing out of their scheduled trip to Huntington this year.

Not that Louisville is any good, but they would have more name recognition than Rhode Island.

I say just win every game and worry about the other stuff later.

(05-07-2014 11:02 AM)ThunderingHerdFan Wrote:  I really wish the national media would hold Louisville to the fire for backing out of their scheduled trip to Huntington this year.

Not that Louisville is any good, but they would have more name recognition than Rhode Island.

Your athletic director should be reminding the media about the Louisville game.

(05-07-2014 06:20 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:21 PM)banker Wrote:  Depends, if Marshall were to go 13-0 and not really have a close call, a bunch of blowouts, and some of their opponents have better than expected seasons, who knows.

This year is looking like it could be similar to 1999. We went 12-0 against a not great schedule, but we were dominant. We out scored opponents 442-134 in those 12 games and only had 2 games within one score (at Clemson and against WMU in the MACC game). Everyone thought we were overrated then we beat top 25 BYU in a bowl 21-3 and it really wasn't that close. We held BYU to -16 yards rushing and 202 total yards. BYU was averaging 30 ppg.

The point is, you can play a bad schedule and still be a very good team. I don't think we'll go undefeated, but if we do, and do it in impressive fashion, we'll be fine.

Agreed, Marshall has a monumentally bad schedule but also has a very talented team. Doc might have to take a little heat and not only beat teams but blow them out. Unlike some belly aching that went on here last year about ECU and our scores, I would agree that Marshall is potentially playing for a Access Bowl this year and that has huge implications for Marshall and financial implications for CUSA so Marshall should keep their boot on the throat of every team they play except for maybe the last 5 minutes of a game. If Marshall is barely beating teams with a weak SOS then the critics will be lined up with knives. If you are beating teams by 3+ TD's most games then the critics will still argue SOS but you will have the defense that you played who was on your schedule and crushed them.

I think the potential bright spot is how other CUSA teams do in their non conference. Without looking at their schedule, MTSU, FAU, and North Texas look like they could be fairly strong, but I don't know if Marshall plays NT. Marshall is going to be good though, but they may not get full credit for it. I'd put Cato in a bubble since that backup QB left.

If Marshall goes undefeated and wins the conference championship game then I think a major competitor for the Access Bowl could be ULL. The Cajuns are going to be very good and if they can knock off Ole Miss and Boise St, both on the road, they could take that bid away from Marshall.
I just don't think the other 3 conferences will have a team with less than 2 losses this year.

It's a fan blog site -- I don't care what other fans are saying --The decisions on the access bowl will be made by those with closer ties to the P5 than G5, so the opinion of outsiders means little to the chances of the G5 programs. I want to know what the insiders are hearing from the committee leading up to the season - who do they have their eyes on - not vice versa!

Just remember, Oliver Luck is on the committee and he will not do Marshall any favors.

(05-06-2014 04:32 PM)RedParallax Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 03:55 PM)EastCarolinaU. Wrote:  I think if an AAC team only has one loss, and it is early in the season, they will get picked ahead of an undefeated marshall. However, don't think that there will be any one loss AAC teams. I think it would be really hard to say Marshall is more deserving of the access spot if ECU's only loss was to . . . say top 10 USC. That means we would have 10 straight wins over teams @VT, @ Cincy, UNC, UCF, Tulane. Obviously this is dependent on those teams having good seasons which may not happen. Just my unprofessional opinion.

Yea, you and I are on the same page. Even if VT and UNC have sub-par seasons, that's going to be more impressive than any win on our schedule. I'd argue a 2-loss ECU team with 2 losses out of those 3 P5 conference games would be more deserving than an undefeated Marshall.

Maybe so, but I wouldn't pick any 2 loss team over a 0 loss Marshall. I think one with 1 loss it would happen, especially if its on the road to a ranked p5 team. Someone brought up a good point, i think how Marshall wins their games will also be a factor. they need to blow out the competition