(01-07-2015 04:48 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: sturt - I guess the hard thing for me to get past is where you keep seeing these "trends" toward this model. I don't see ANY of those trends at all. Once again, the public desire for a playoff (which is certainly high) is completely separate from the public desire to throw current conference structures out the window.
First, I appreciate the persistence--whether intended or not, I take it as an implicit sign of some degree of respect that you'd invest your time in the topic as you continue to do.
Second, I again think we're again missing each other. Again, let me try to be precise.
There is NOT a "trend" toward this model. Heck, no one even knows about it for there to be a trend towards it, right?
Here is what there is a trend toward (again).
There is a trend toward equality, or maybe a better term is inclusion. Without rehearsing a couple of paragraphs of evidence (again), I'll just say it this concise way: in 1998, Tulane and its president Scott Cowan beat loudly on the glass ceiling keeping their undefeated team from playing in a bowl game appropriate to their achievements... and today in 2014, there would be automatic access to Tulane to play in the Rose Bowl or any of its peers. (If you were alive and paying attention in 1998, you KNOW that's a purty-damn significant leap that can't legitimately be brushed off.)
And less detectable, more subjective on my part, there is a trend that the college football loving public desires for everything to be settled on the field that possibly can be settled on the field where this national championship thing is concerned. People are uncomfortable with opinions and votes dictating... for
every other sport known to mankind, there is an objective path to become champions for every team that has met the criteria to be in whatever league they are a part of.
Think of any of it... is there any other sport where you would be comfortable with an election having bearing on who gets to compete? "Hey, let's elect who should get into the NFL playoffs next year... after all there are some small market, low-resource teams that really shouldn't have the same access as everyone else!"... think that would fly?
Even in March Madness, where, yes, there is a selection committee, the objective path is still there--if you win your conference, you're in... those guys are just deciding on the at-large teams and on the seeding... they can't prevent Butler from getting in if Butler earns the spot.
Okay, and last, I do not perceive a public desire to "throw conference structures out the window." That's the downfall of virtually ever realignment concept coming and going. So, you are right to maintain that conferences want and should have autonomy as to who they consider to be a member.
Where priorities collide is in this, and since you brought them up earlier, let's just use Boise as our guinea pig...
Whereas Arizona was considered a legitimate contender for a playoff slot, as you said, no one said a peep about Boise.
Here on the other side of the bowls, it can be realized that if Arizona actually received some legitimate "peep," maybe Boise woulda/shoulda/coulda as well... and why didn't they?
Yes, it's because Boise didn't gain the standing they might otherwise have deserved had they'd played a schedule more like Arizona's.
Note that it's NOT simply because they're not a member of one of the con5 conferences that they didn't get to play such a schedule...
Rather, it's PRECISELY because the schedules are glued to conference membership in such a way that it squeezes them out of any opportunity to do so.
So, if put to a vote on the priorities... either preferring (a) inclusion/equality of opportunity for all FBS, or (b) maintaining conferences' mandate that all members each season play 8-9 games exclusively among themselves... which would win out?
I'd go with "b" myself... I bet you would, too.
There's a reason why people haven't been all over this thread saying "why didn't I think of that," and/or "we need to get this concept in front of the FBS authorities as soon as possible!"
So I grant you that point... and if you're genuine, you have to grant me this one... forgive me if you've heard me bring it up before...
Unless you're really young and just didn't know, it's only been in the last 10 years really that the trend toward equality of opportunity with regard to same-sex marriage took root. Now, I'm personally for legalized tax-advantaged status for people who take care of each other on the basis that if they don't, the government has to... so it serves the government's purposes to do that, but not limit it to people on the basis of romance... I'm NOT a fan of the whole equality thing as a legitimate rationale... but regardless, my point is that one can't know without exceptional time travel how trends might grow over a few years or a couple of decades and push boundaries that not so long ago seemed impenetrable... and of course, this particular issue helps illuminate the point b/c it specifically highlights how the whole equality mantra seeped into the public conscience and today it's barely even making the news when a state legalizes it.
To wit... I grant you that that would be the preference in 2014. I even grant you that it is reasonable to discount the possibility of the equality trend growing to affect the 2025 or 2035 competition framework of college football.
But assuming you are a reasonably humble and intelligent person (and I do), you need to grant that even as you discount it, it wouldn't be the first time that 10-20 years made all the difference in an environment and, by association, on public priorities... ie, it's just not the same as the idea of your aunt growing balls... you truly can't rule it out b/c you have the integrity to acknowledge
trends have bubbled up before and taken things farther than at one time they could be imagined... and you realize you can only accurately prognosticate and plot out societal conditions so far.
I suppose I would only add this... going back to the NFL thing...
Consider if we had the situation that the large-market NFL teams had access to the playoffs that the small-market teams did not... and maybe that people were okay with it at first... but then, increasingly small-market teams began to not just be competitive but actually defeated some large-market teams...
Think the big-market teams... ie, the "power" ones by virtue of their far greater economic weight... would perpetually be able to get by with the excuse/reason that they prefer to play each other in the regular season, and its just too bad that their preference impedes the small market teams from being playoff-eligible?
For awhile, maybe. Perpetually? I don't see it.
Yeah, it'd be somewhat easy to defend Dallas wanting to always play Washington and a couple of other teams maybe... but do they really have to play San Francisco?... do they really have to play New Orleans?... do they really have to play Green Bay?... and, relevantly, it's easy to defend Ohio State wanting to play Michigan... but do they really have to play Minnesota?... do they really have to play Northwestern?... do they really have to play Maryland?...
Returning where I began... again, all this concept is is
an (not even "the") answer to the question, if we were to see college football re-shaped by these conditions (preference for equality of opportunity, and preference for objective/on-the-field results dictating who participates in the playoff), what might a coherent master plan look like?
(01-07-2015 04:48 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: THERE IS NO MAGICAL OUTSIDE FORCE IN COLLEGE SPORTS. You keep ignoring or passing off the new NCAA autonomy rules, but how else can you interpret this than the 5 power conferences are (a) formalizing the fact that they are separate from everyone else (which we all knew before but wasn't structurally in place from a governance perspective until now) and (b) the small conferences are actually agreeing to it?! THE POWER CONFERENCES CONTROL EVERYTHING. It's not just political power that they have (which you had mentioned above) - the power conferences have financial power, fan base power, TV market power, academic power and now governance power. The CFP and NCAA Tournament are worth billions of dollars because of the participation of the power conferences. Without those power conferences, those games are worth about as much as the FCS playoffs and NIT. You're severely downplaying how much more the power conferences (even the weaker members) are bringing to the table financially and how little of the non-power conferences are contributing by comparison. As a result, the only way any proposal gains any base-level credence with me is if the proposer can explain why on Earth would the Big Ten and SEC would agree to it...
So, you say I've avoided... and you're correct, I've really really wanted to not deal with the philosophical stuff here... it's interesting to me and you and maybe 2-3 other people, and I just had hoped to keep this thread focused on the concept, period.
Guess that's not working out so well... hehe... so, yeah, hopefully given all of the substance written over the last day or two, you can see I'm giving in, and addressing things I'd previously preferred to speak to in another thread... but anyhow...
So now, may I say you've avoided something, too? ...and that it is relevant to what you just said above... that is this...
Talk to me please about why you believe the contract conference gods haven't already called down lightning from on high and ended the whole charade... you seem to take this view that everyone else in the pool is an illegitimate interloper, right?... so, why do this?... are they just so very altruistic?... why not just keep virtually ALL of the money, virtually ALL of the TV time, virtually ALL of the national regard for themselves? What's your theory on that... in that, be sure to include how we went from virtually zero non-con5 schools in bowl games, to a few, to several, and these days to an automatic bid major bowl bid... did they WANT it that way? Was that by design? If so, why? If not, given that their tentacles control it all, where did they slip up and how did they let that happen?
It's important because 20 years ago, had someone said, "Yeah, but I bet if Boise had gotten to play Arizona in a major bowl game"... the easy reply would have been, "We're basically having the college sports equivalent of a "If my aunt had balls, then she'd be my uncle" type of discussion." Do you get that? I think you do. But I don't know why it's taken this long to address it. (Or, if you did and I just read over top of it, please forgive and repeat yourself, and I'll try to pay better attention.)
As to the balance of your comment above, I think you know my opinion is that the contract schools are realizing that the on-the-field results are seriously imposing on their capacity to maintain their country club privileges. It's becoming far too routine... the trend is that non-con5 teams are defeating con5 teams at a rate that, if left unchecked, a football version of a Butler might evolve. (One might argue that it already happened with TCU, except that they let TCU in the door just-in-time.)
Their problem isn't going to be resolved, though, by throwing more money at the athletes--they're ALREADY getting the HS seniors considered the best, so there's not really any opportunity there to change the trend... the talent pyramid is just too wide and there's just too much development that occurs between ages 18-22 to make any in-roads in that respect.
Further... again... to eliminate the lower-resource schools from the "league" that is FBS doesn't help for much the same reasons that eliminating all below-the-income-median U.S. workers wouldn't help those above it... among other downsides, the "lower class" would just end up being the current con5's lower-resource schools.
So what else can they do?
I'm not really certain, and the national columnists that I've read on the topic don't appear to be all in agreement on it either. I try not to pretend to know things that I don't know. Maybe there is something they can do, but it just seems very unlikely to me based on two factors...
One, that they can't keep NFL-potential talent from getting to the non-con schools... there's just too much of it out there...
And two, there's always more HS seniors who've been told that they have NFL-potential talent than who actually have it, and the problem for the con5 schools on that point is, all of those guys want their chance to show their stuff... and so the proliferation of college football broadcasts--which is controlled by entities EVEN BIGGER than the con5 conferences--seriously infringes on the country club set's ability to cinch off other legitimate challengers from surfacing, ie, DE-LEGITIMIZING the right of maintaining special standing for the entire 14 of a given 14-member league when only a few have actually earned that special standing.
Oh yeah, and if you figure out how that 8-team playoff thing can occur within a framework that decides everything on the field, I'm still interested... THAT is actually even more to the intended point of the thread, fwiw.