Really, this is the most important question for realignment; it's the only question. What team will move first? Curious what everyone's thoughts are. In my opinion.

There are only 3 reasons conferences would realign now.
1. A P5 team flips from Conference A to Conference B.
2. Money (which of course goes right back to 1.)
3. Big12 wants a title game (and NCAA doesn't grant an exemption - to which I say, be careful what you ask for... )

I think BYU is the only program that a conference can add with value from Day 1 (current value, not potential value) and there's only a handful of schools that add potential value to be realized. (not getting into that list - too much energy is put into that on this forum).

So let's speculate who moves first... Big 12 raid? ACC loses a team to B1G? Texas goes out west?

Thoughts, everyone?

-----------------------------------

I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

(02-19-2015 11:24 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

Exactly...as long as the GoR are in place no movement for at least another 8 to 10 years IMO...

(02-19-2015 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:24 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

Exactly...as long as the GoR are in place no movement for at least another 8 to 10 years IMO...

It might take that long before someone moves... unless a conference was willing to buyout the GoR from another conference... that's highly unlikely though.

What's the latest with the Maryland lawsuit

(02-19-2015 11:49 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:24 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

Exactly...as long as the GoR are in place no movement for at least another 8 to 10 years IMO...

It might take that long before someone moves... unless a conference was willing to buyout the GoR from another conference... that's highly unlikely though.

What's the latest with the Maryland lawsuit

Maryland was never under the ACC GoR but they settled with the ACC for the buyout/exit fees at $31.3 Million...going forward for the next 10 years it is at best $31 to $52 Million buyout/exit fees and the GoR for any current ACC School...Steep...

(02-19-2015 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:24 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

Exactly...as long as the GoR are in place no movement for at least another 8 to 10 years IMO...

The only event in the short term which would allow for any immediate movement from the Big 12 would, IMO, require the formal dissolution of that conference. That won't happen unless all its members are assured of a landing spot in the P4. And, IMO, that would require the cooperation of the P4 to make that dispersal rational and not destabilizing. That's a long shot, and would need strong visionary leadership on the part of the Big Ten and SEC. I have no doubt they could muster the strong part. Not confident about the visionary part.

There is no question every conference would have to accept some compromises to the criteria they have up to now tried to follow in offering membership. They might even have to hold their collective noses a bit. Keeping an eye on the map, I would envision that the PAC would pick up Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The B10 would add Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State. The SEC takes Texas, Baylor and TCU, leaving West Virginia to go to the ACC.

While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

I also think nobody really wants to open up that Pandora Box...

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.

(02-19-2015 04:15 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.

This. But, nothing until then.

(02-19-2015 04:15 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.

Agreed.

But the original post offers an interesting "What If".

So, in that context and keeping in mind what you write above, it would most likely involve a P5 team that has a lot of value and the right conference willing to take them on. Maryland didn't balk at the ACC GOR because they hoped the B1G would invite them at some point in the future. They knew it was a done deal at that point in time, at least from the aspect of being assured a B1G invite.

So, the P5 teams of value that might at least consider a move when the current GORs start expiring are, of course, the usual suspects (in alpha order) - Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the top 2 P5 teams willing to move are probably Oklahoma (to any of PAC, B16, or SEC) as along as Oklahoma State can tag along (probably narrows it to the PAC as a result) and FSU but only to the SEC.

If either or both of those happen, then the other P5 teams of value from the ACC and/or the Big 12 will be more open to a possible move elsewhere.

Cheers,
Neil

"What P5 team will be the first to switch conferences?"

Either the Big Ten grabs two from the ACC (Virginia, North Carolina) or the SEC does (Florida State, Clemson).

Virginia Tech, UConn -> B1G. B1G can absorb VT's legal battle with the new TV contract.

That puts the rest of New England (primarily Boston), and North Carolina, a stones throw away and completes H1's 4x4 conference. Question then would be, what division does VT get put in. One with Penn State as the anchor, or Ohio State?

(02-21-2015 01:58 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Either the Big Ten grabs two from the ACC (Virginia, North Carolina) or the SEC does (Florida State, Clemson).

Yeah, that's the thing. I seems to me that if you take Virginia you've got to pair them with UNC to make both feel more at home.

(02-21-2015 11:44 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 04:15 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.

Agreed.

But the original post offers an interesting "What If".

So, in that context and keeping in mind what you write above, it would most likely involve a P5 team that has a lot of value and the right conference willing to take them on. Maryland didn't balk at the ACC GOR because they hoped the B1G would invite them at some point in the future. They knew it was a done deal at that point in time, at least from the aspect of being assured a B1G invite.

So, the P5 teams of value that might at least consider a move when the current GORs start expiring are, of course, the usual suspects (in alpha order) - Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the top 2 P5 teams willing to move are probably Oklahoma (to any of PAC, B16, or SEC) as along as Oklahoma State can tag along (probably narrows it to the PAC as a result) and FSU but only to the SEC.

If either or both of those happen, then the other P5 teams of value from the ACC and/or the Big 12 will be more open to a possible move elsewhere.

Cheers,
Neil

Maryland didn't balk at the ACC's GoR because it did not pertain to them. They had already announced their move to the Big Ten so they were never a party to it. I don't recall any school changing conferences after signing a GoR.

(02-19-2015 12:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:24 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 11:22 AM)jskwrite Wrote:  I'd say Kansas to the B1G ... Kansas-Kansas St is a very subdued rivalry - not losing much there.. Kansas would compete better in the B1G in football than they do in the Big 12; B1G is top heavy - Kansas can fit in the middle of the pack. It's probably a step up in basketball too. Kansas fits academically and school-size/campus-wise as well.

Talk about linchpin. All bets would be off if Kansas moved as to what happened next.

What will Kansas do about the GoR? Unless you're saying the move happens when the Big 12 GoR are up.

Exactly...as long as the GoR are in place no movement for at least another 8 to 10 years IMO...

The only event in the short term which would allow for any immediate movement from the Big 12 would, IMO, require the formal dissolution of that conference. That won't happen unless all its members are assured of a landing spot in the P4. And, IMO, that would require the cooperation of the P4 to make that dispersal rational and not destabilizing. That's a long shot, and would need strong visionary leadership on the part of the Big Ten and SEC. I have no doubt they could muster the strong part. Not confident about the visionary part.

There is no question every conference would have to accept some compromises to the criteria they have up to now tried to follow in offering membership. They might even have to hold their collective noses a bit. Keeping an eye on the map, I would envision that the PAC would pick up Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The B10 would add Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State. The SEC takes Texas, Baylor and TCU, leaving West Virginia to go to the ACC.

I have no idea what will happen next. However, one thing I am totally convinced of.... and that is Texas pride will never let them follow A&M to the SEC. I think anyone who knows very much about Texas understands this.

(02-19-2015 04:15 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.

If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.

^^^^^^^
This....

Because of geography the two conferences that will have the most difficulty expanding (with other existing P5 schools) will be the PAC and the ACC.
However I don't think that the first move will involve any P5 school but rather will be a football only move of BYU to the PAC.

(02-21-2015 07:00 PM)XLance Wrote:  Because of geography the two conferences that will have the most difficulty expanding (with other existing P5 schools) will be the PAC and the ACC.
However I don't think that the first move will involve any P5 school but rather will be a football only move of BYU to the PAC.

Notre Dame will join the Big Ten and Pluto will be colonized before BYU football joins the PAC.