(03-16-2015 03:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 02:50 PM)Rabonchild Wrote:  I have now witnessed the Conference of haters know as the Sunbelt dog out Liberty until I hope the conference remains in purgatory for eternity. I hope Conference USA never gives another Sunbelt team a "get out of hail free" card.

It is not "dogging" to:
1. Point out Liberty has been considered twice and the presidents declined to accept them.
2. Point out that Liberty can sue the NCAA and it doesn't solve the issue of moving up.
3. Point out that some schools would have reservations about a school where there are four or five online students for every on campus student (Grand Canyon moving Division I was controversial).
4. Point out that some state supported schools are going to be hesitant to add a school that can cause problems from their faculty and student bodies over their policies.

arkstfan, you're not dogging it as stated, but reacting to a pointed finger by a poster. It's been posted her close to a gazillion times about Liberty and their online presence (which is a model many schools will adopt in the future) and the past missteps and mistakes made by the founder and some of his bozo remarks and actions. Don't let a poster prod you into rehashing another rabbit hole that we'll again be dragged down that takes us off focus of the post. You make valid post and I enjoy your comments.

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

If it is any constant from this thread that's become clear, is that if any team(s) where to challenge the current invite only arrangement, major changes in the FBS, G5, P5, and indy clarification would be forth coming. Let's hope that cool heads will prevail and egos are kept in check and that a wise, fair reorganization comes out of this without a challenge. A decision that creates an unfair or advantage for the P5 over the G5, or even G5 over the P5 if possible, likely may cause a greater economic divide. When dollars are on the table and individuals are responsible on who gets what the fairness usually gets shifted on the back burner.

(03-16-2015 03:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 04:25 PM)Savacool Wrote:  Why does all of the members of the Sunbelt want to leave the Sunbelt Conference and take UAB's place in CUSA. In my personal opinion CUSA is now the Sunbelt 2.

People need to keep in mind that regardless if the CUSA has 12, 13 or 14 teams, they get the same $12 million/year from the CFP media deal.

In other words, $X/13 > $Y/14, where X is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 football teams and Y is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 and any Sun Belt team as a 14th football team.


That said, why would CUSA add anyone to replace UAB's football team? Going from 13 to 14 football teams doesn't really seem to do anything beneficial.

I put pen to paper. If CUSA were to give UAB a one year extension and take away their share of football related income, the remaining 13 would pick up about $115,000 in revenue and it means they don't have to get the TV ironed out by June 30 to know what makes the best financial sense.

(03-16-2015 03:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 04:25 PM)Savacool Wrote:  Why does all of the members of the Sunbelt want to leave the Sunbelt Conference and take UAB's place in CUSA. In my personal opinion CUSA is now the Sunbelt 2.

People need to keep in mind that regardless if the CUSA has 12, 13 or 14 teams, they get the same $12 million/year from the CFP media deal.

In other words, $X/13 > $Y/14, where X is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 football teams and Y is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 and any Sun Belt team as a 14th football team.


That said, why would CUSA add anyone to replace UAB's football team? Going from 13 to 14 football teams doesn't really seem to do anything beneficial.

The difference in the per school take between 13 and 14 members is $66,000 K. That is not a big enough amount to for that to be a real factor in any expansion decision

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

FWIW, my theory is the P5 want something more akin to the NCAA per 1973 when the federated structure brought uniformity to things that had been determined on a conference by conference basis.

The power players of the day didn't care if the MAC or Southern or Southland were in the top level because they didn't stop them from doing mostly whatever they wanted to do.

The uniformity imposed in the federated structure saw the smaller leagues carry more clout trying to impose cost-containment.

If the small dinos want to run around in the jungle that's fine long as they aren't eating too much.

Don't get me wrong, I think cost-containment is possibly going to happen but it will be the five leagues picking a budget number as a cap so they can divert athletic money to other purposes and slow the arms race but that number will be one that AState and Houston can't reach jointly much less independently.

(03-16-2015 04:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:36 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 04:25 PM)Savacool Wrote:  Why does all of the members of the Sunbelt want to leave the Sunbelt Conference and take UAB's place in CUSA. In my personal opinion CUSA is now the Sunbelt 2.

People need to keep in mind that regardless if the CUSA has 12, 13 or 14 teams, they get the same $12 million/year from the CFP media deal.

In other words, $X/13 > $Y/14, where X is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 football teams and Y is the $12 million plus the CUSA media deal with the remaining 13 and any Sun Belt team as a 14th football team.


That said, why would CUSA add anyone to replace UAB's football team? Going from 13 to 14 football teams doesn't really seem to do anything beneficial.

The difference in the per school take between 13 and 14 members is $66,000 K. That is not a big enough amount to for that to be a real factor in any expansion decision

At least some portion of the TV deal is for football, and there is added CFP money distributed between the five leagues in addition to the flat guarantee based on rankings.

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

Does anyone think they have not separated and more importantly mportantly that they care one iota about the G5.

They are already seperate in just about every aspect, what they are doing now is sealing the deal. At the current rate the will be legitimately a seperate div or organization all together in the near enough future.

(03-16-2015 04:42 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If the small dinos want to run around in the jungle that's fine long as they aren't eating too much.

My thoughts exactly.

(03-16-2015 04:59 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

To be clear---as long as nobody rocks the boat, I don't think they intend to do it anytime soon (or at least until the current CFP expires). I do believe we will get to some sort of split eventually.

It may be a big blow up including a full split from the NCAA where the P5 has full control over who makes up the new organization. Or---it may involve the creation of a new division within the existing NCAA structure. Or----it may be a long slow process of simply increasing the price of FBS participation to the point that G5 type schools begin to exit on their own accord. At the very least---I believe that some sort of culling of the herd will happen because it always has happened in the past when membership in the top level of football (the top division has had different names over the history of the sport) climbs to around 100. At 128 teams, we are well past that point. In other words---its overdue.

(03-16-2015 09:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 04:59 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  It doesn't really matter if they win anyway, because their victory would be pyrrhic victory of sorts. The P5 would not want to be part of a D-1 football division that allows anyone in who wants to be in. That would be the straw that breaks the camels back and creates the final split between the NCAA and the P5. The G5 will try to go with them if possible. Liberty may find that they have won the right to be proud members of an FBS division of one. Even if the G5 cant leave, I doubt they will be rushing to schedule the team that caused the split and likely destroyed their football programs as a result.

I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

To be clear---as long as nobody rocks the boat, I don't think they intend to do it anytime soon (or at least until the current CFP expires). I do believe we will get to some sort of split eventually.

It may be a big blow up including a full split from the NCAA where the P5 has full control over who makes up the new organization. Or---it may involve the creation of a new division within the existing NCAA structure. Or----it may be a long slow process of simply increasing the price of FBS participation to the point that G5 type schools begin to exit on their own accord. At the very least---I believe that some sort of culling of the herd will happen because it always has happened in the past when membership in the top level of football (the top division has had different names over the history of the sport) climbs to around 100. At 128 teams, we are well past that point. In other words---its overdue.

128 is the upper end of historic stability.

But the historic low of 105 actually created tension.

My guess is that 10 years from now we are at 120-127 range due to attrition and Division I as whole is smaller because of economic forces.

I don't think the the CFP expiration in 2024 is the cataclysm but it happens that year. The NCAA basketball contract expiration is the biggie. I expect the P5 to wrestle it away and end the practice of the NCAA skimming a large percentage. At that point any conference where schools aren't awarding full cost and isn't full funding scholarships at close to the maximum numbers per sport will at best get reduced share, or lose their auto bid, or be formally pushed down.

(03-16-2015 10:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 09:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 04:59 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:44 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  I don't agree.

The P5 are increasing doing their own thing, well within the definition of FBS let alone DI.

They have autonomy in governance. They have the best post-season football media they've ever had in the CFP. And increasingly, P5 bowl games are being set up to produce more P5 vs. P5 matches and kill off G5 vs. P5 (see the Little Cesar's Bowl). The P5 are going to be playing at least nine games a year against themselves (either nine explicit conference games or nine games against P5).

Heck, even March Madness this year features some examples of G5 and I-AAA teams being corralled into knocking each other out of the P5's way in the "second" round.


I for one think that in a "unified Division I" where every Division I football team was in the same division, with the same 85 max headcount, that the P5 would be just fine and dandy with it.

Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

To be clear---as long as nobody rocks the boat, I don't think they intend to do it anytime soon (or at least until the current CFP expires). I do believe we will get to some sort of split eventually.

It may be a big blow up including a full split from the NCAA where the P5 has full control over who makes up the new organization. Or---it may involve the creation of a new division within the existing NCAA structure. Or----it may be a long slow process of simply increasing the price of FBS participation to the point that G5 type schools begin to exit on their own accord. At the very least---I believe that some sort of culling of the herd will happen because it always has happened in the past when membership in the top level of football (the top division has had different names over the history of the sport) climbs to around 100. At 128 teams, we are well past that point. In other words---its overdue.

128 is the upper end of historic stability.

But the historic low of 105 actually created tension.

My guess is that 10 years from now we are at 120-127 range due to attrition and Division I as whole is smaller because of economic forces.

I don't think the the CFP expiration in 2024 is the cataclysm but it happens that year. The NCAA basketball contract expiration is the biggie. I expect the P5 to wrestle it away and end the practice of the NCAA skimming a large percentage. At that point any conference where schools aren't awarding full cost and isn't full funding scholarships at close to the maximum numbers per sport will at best get reduced share, or lose their auto bid, or be formally pushed down.

That may well happen. The P5 could also use the threat of leaving to get the NCAA to eliminate the rule that forbids any D-I school from playing in another postseason basketball tournament if they are invited to the NCAA tournament.

Once that is done, the P5 can start a tournament that is administered by a group they control, like the college football playoff. They can agree that their members will participate if invited, and they can invite teams from non-P5 conferences as well, maybe even handing out about 16 autobids (instead of the 34 autobids of the current NCAA tournament) for a 64-team field, which would leave 48 bids for at-large teams. If they start such a tournament, the TV networks will move their money from the NCAA tournament to this new one.

(03-16-2015 11:20 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 10:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 09:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 04:59 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 03:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Yet everything you listed before your conclusion screams just the opposite. Is the P5 is working toward creating closer ties with rest of D1? Nope. Just the opposite---They are working on greater separation. The only question is---for what reason? Are they angling for a new division within the NCAA structure or a complete split with a completely different governing organization. Either way, a court case forcing the door open for a controversial new FBS member would likely be the perfect excuse to execute the final act of the P5 plan. The result being, the FBS that Liberty was granted access to would not be the FBS we current know.

Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

To be clear---as long as nobody rocks the boat, I don't think they intend to do it anytime soon (or at least until the current CFP expires). I do believe we will get to some sort of split eventually.

It may be a big blow up including a full split from the NCAA where the P5 has full control over who makes up the new organization. Or---it may involve the creation of a new division within the existing NCAA structure. Or----it may be a long slow process of simply increasing the price of FBS participation to the point that G5 type schools begin to exit on their own accord. At the very least---I believe that some sort of culling of the herd will happen because it always has happened in the past when membership in the top level of football (the top division has had different names over the history of the sport) climbs to around 100. At 128 teams, we are well past that point. In other words---its overdue.

128 is the upper end of historic stability.

But the historic low of 105 actually created tension.

My guess is that 10 years from now we are at 120-127 range due to attrition and Division I as whole is smaller because of economic forces.

I don't think the the CFP expiration in 2024 is the cataclysm but it happens that year. The NCAA basketball contract expiration is the biggie. I expect the P5 to wrestle it away and end the practice of the NCAA skimming a large percentage. At that point any conference where schools aren't awarding full cost and isn't full funding scholarships at close to the maximum numbers per sport will at best get reduced share, or lose their auto bid, or be formally pushed down.

That may well happen. The P5 could also use the threat of leaving to get the NCAA to eliminate the rule that forbids any D-I school from playing in another postseason basketball tournament if they are invited to the NCAA tournament.

Once that is done, the P5 can start a tournament that is administered by a group they control, like the college football playoff. They can agree that their members will participate if invited, and they can invite teams from non-P5 conferences as well, maybe even handing out about 16 autobids (instead of the 34 autobids of the current NCAA tournament) for a 64-team field, which would leave 48 bids for at-large teams. If they start such a tournament, the TV networks will move their money from the NCAA tournament to this new one.

I felt that was the attack Metropolitan Basketball should have taken rather than suing to get the rule lifted when no one would accept an invite. Lock up the power leagues, guarantee them a minimum share in addition to units and have the weakest 8-16 leagues play their way in via regional qualifying tournaments. Then the lawsuit would have been for real stakes and the power leagues would have had their leverage then.

(03-16-2015 03:45 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If CUSA adds no one, and WKU returns to the Sun Belt, both leagues have 12 football teams, just enough for a conference title game, and the right number for maximizing distribution of a G5 conference's CFP money.

That would indeed be perfect. It just makes no sense to me why any G5 would want to grow beyond 12 when the CFP share is capped at $12 million/year.

But of course, we both know that won't happen. WKU would never voluntarily leave the CUSA for the SB and the CUSA has no legitimate way of kicking WKU out, even if they do kick UAB out and that leaves them with an odd (and unlucky) number of members at 13.

(03-16-2015 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I put pen to paper. If CUSA were to give UAB a one year extension and take away their share of football related income, the remaining 13 would pick up about $115,000 in revenue and it means they don't have to get the TV ironed out by June 30 to know what makes the best financial sense.

And they retain an even number of members for non-football sports, which is preferable.

Seems like an easy choice to make, but it does hinge on UAB agreeing to take an unequal payout from the conference by excluding football money.

If I was UAB I would take that in a second, while I see if football can be restarted in the coming school year.

I guess we'll see who prevails.

(03-16-2015 04:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The difference in the per school take between 13 and 14 members is $66,000 K. That is not a big enough amount to for that to be a real factor in any expansion decision

Your number is low, but let's say it's not higher than $1xx,xxx/year per school.

You're telling me that the 13 presidents are going to say "you know what guys, booting UAB and adding a 14th football team from the Sun Belt won't provide a single tangible benefit to the conference over just staying with our 13 teams and each school will lose about $100k per year in doing so ..... but aw heck, it's just so much fun adding new schools -- let's do it!" ??

Come on...

(03-17-2015 10:17 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I put pen to paper. If CUSA were to give UAB a one year extension and take away their share of football related income, the remaining 13 would pick up about $115,000 in revenue and it means they don't have to get the TV ironed out by June 30 to know what makes the best financial sense.

And they retain an even number of members for non-football sports, which is preferable.

Seems like an easy choice to make, but it does hinge on UAB agreeing to take an unequal payout from the conference by excluding football money.

If I was UAB I would take that in a second, while I see if football can be restarted in the coming school year.

I guess we'll see who prevails.

With all due respect to UAB---they have no football team. What conference is going to pay them a full share of the football media pie for the rights to a non-existent football team? I agree with your conclusion---UAB would take a partial share deal in New York minute.

(03-17-2015 08:54 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 11:20 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 10:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 09:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-16-2015 04:59 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  Why is it every time I say the p5 is trying to seperate from the g5 I get berated, but when you say it no one says anything.

To be clear---as long as nobody rocks the boat, I don't think they intend to do it anytime soon (or at least until the current CFP expires). I do believe we will get to some sort of split eventually.

It may be a big blow up including a full split from the NCAA where the P5 has full control over who makes up the new organization. Or---it may involve the creation of a new division within the existing NCAA structure. Or----it may be a long slow process of simply increasing the price of FBS participation to the point that G5 type schools begin to exit on their own accord. At the very least---I believe that some sort of culling of the herd will happen because it always has happened in the past when membership in the top level of football (the top division has had different names over the history of the sport) climbs to around 100. At 128 teams, we are well past that point. In other words---its overdue.

128 is the upper end of historic stability.

But the historic low of 105 actually created tension.

My guess is that 10 years from now we are at 120-127 range due to attrition and Division I as whole is smaller because of economic forces.

I don't think the the CFP expiration in 2024 is the cataclysm but it happens that year. The NCAA basketball contract expiration is the biggie. I expect the P5 to wrestle it away and end the practice of the NCAA skimming a large percentage. At that point any conference where schools aren't awarding full cost and isn't full funding scholarships at close to the maximum numbers per sport will at best get reduced share, or lose their auto bid, or be formally pushed down.

That may well happen. The P5 could also use the threat of leaving to get the NCAA to eliminate the rule that forbids any D-I school from playing in another postseason basketball tournament if they are invited to the NCAA tournament.

Once that is done, the P5 can start a tournament that is administered by a group they control, like the college football playoff. They can agree that their members will participate if invited, and they can invite teams from non-P5 conferences as well, maybe even handing out about 16 autobids (instead of the 34 autobids of the current NCAA tournament) for a 64-team field, which would leave 48 bids for at-large teams. If they start such a tournament, the TV networks will move their money from the NCAA tournament to this new one.

I felt that was the attack Metropolitan Basketball should have taken rather than suing to get the rule lifted when no one would accept an invite. Lock up the power leagues, guarantee them a minimum share in addition to units and have the weakest 8-16 leagues play their way in via regional qualifying tournaments. Then the lawsuit would have been for real stakes and the power leagues would have had their leverage then.

Tell ya what, guys: let's all throw in $1000 each. You four can tow the internet message board colloquialism that the P5 are going to separate from the NCAA and form their own association. I'll be the champion for what I'll call "human nature, politics and businessmen".

If you win (should be guaranteed, right?) then you can each split my $1000 in four ways. An easy $250 for you each. But if I win, I make $4k.


The bet is that one of two things will happen: 1) the P5 will completely separate from the NCAA and form their own association or 2) the P5 will get their own, exclusive division in the NCAA with all its own post-season tournaments with the NCAA keeping very little money from the division and very difficult to move-up into this division (needs a super majority vote from current members, perhaps).

The time frame is by the end of the current CFP.



This is a very easy bet for me to make. And I know I'll be taking your money in 11 years.

Here's why: every single new iteration of the major college football post season has been more inclusive of the G5.

That's it. That's all I need to know to place my money on the table.


Think on that for a while.