Though April has traditionally been the most difficult stretch of the regular season for us-- as we tend to hit a bit of a mid-season wall and our student-athletes face the increasing academic pressures associated with the end of the school year, we need to reverse that trend this year if we hope to achieve our primary goals of keeping our conference championship streak alive and position ourselves favorably for the post-season. Starting with the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders this weekend, we're facing a critical stretch in the season-- over the next two weeks Rice Baseball will be playing eight consecutive games against Top 75 competition (#35 MTSU x 3, at #4 A&M, at #63 UAB x 3, #24UH). We need to break out of the .500 (5 - 5) ball we've been playing the past 2+ weeks, during which time the offense has struggled for the first time this year (even as the pitching has rebounded the past week), while we continue to be plagued by uncharacteristically sloppy defense (which has, unfortunately, been a year-long malady for us up to this point). This weekend at home against MTSU is all-important, given the Blue Raiders currently lead the CUSA with an 8 - 1 record (2 full games ahead of us in the loss column), and they've already played-- and beaten-- arguably the three other best teams in the conference; whereas we have our toughest conference foes still remaining on our schedule. It is time to turn things around now. A strong showing the next two weeks (no worse than 5 - 3) will not only provide a significant boost to our RPI, but will put us in a position where we can control our own destiny in the conference race. Start times for this weekend's games are: 6:30 CST on Friday (Military Appreciation Night), 2:00pm on Saturday and 1:00pm on Easter Sunday.
Here's the riceowls.com game notes for the upcoming series...
http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/...15aaa.html
MTSU comes into Reckling sporting an overall 16 - 11 record (6-6 road, 8-1 CUSA, 6-6 vs. Top 100, #39 RPI, #79 ISR, #80 SoS)...and a closer look at their schedule would appear to indicate they're even better than their record, as they've lost all six of the mid-week games played so far this season, (giving up an average of 8 runs in those games, meaning they don't starting pitching depth beyond the weekend). Unlike Rice, the Blue Raiders have built their conference-leading record by beating three of the best teams in the conference (sweeping UAB and ODU at home, and taking the series on the road at FAU. They are an experienced, Senior/upperclass-laden squad, with 5 Seniors and a JUCO transfer in the everyday lineup, a weekend rotation featuring a Senior and two Juniors, and a bullpen anchored by a Senior righty-lefty duo. Given the majority of the team returns from last year's squad that took the weekend series from Rice in Murfreesboro, TN, they are not likely to be intimidated by us. Here's a look at their schedule and results to date...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/sch...-Tennessee
Offensively, the Blue Raiders have been average or slightly below average in AVG and OBP; however, they have been efficient with regards to maximizing their run scoring opportunities. Overall, they're batting .270/.346/.381 as team, with 15 HRs, 53 doubles/triples (2 per game), 29-36 SBs (81% success rate) and averaging 5.4 runs/game. They have three regulars batting over .300, led by their
speedy CFer Ronnie Jebavy (.384/.439/.554, 2 HRs, 10 doubles/triples, 15 RBIs, 15-16 SBs), Brad Jarreau (.317/.388/.337, 2 doubles, 11 RBI, 5 sac bunts), Michael Adkins (.303/.353/.413, 2 HRs, 6 doubles, 25 RBIs, 34 Ks) and cleanup slugger Jared Allen (.257/.317/.468, 6 HRs, 4 doubles/triples, 25 RBIs, 3-4 SBs). MTSU appears to be a ultra-aggressive, free-swinging, fastball hitting team, as no player has accumulated more than 14 BBs (similar to Rice) while averaging a whopping 8.3 strikeouts per game. I would think our pitchers would have success leading with-- and relying on a heavy dose of-- off-speed pitches and breaking balls (as Austin Orewiler did so effectively against Lamar on Tuesday).. If we can consistently throw our breaking pitches for strikes we should be in good shape. Also in our favor, MTSU features an extreme right-handed laden lineup, with only one everyday left-handed batter, and only one other left-handed batter who has seen any action. The key for us will be two-fold: (1) getting ahead in the count with off-speed pitches and breaking balls, and (2) keeping their basestealing #3 hitter, Jebavy, off base so he cannot set up their power hitting, right-handed trio (Allen, Adkins, Ingold).
Defensively, MTSU has been an above-average club, posting a .970 fielding percentage, with only two infielders having committed more than 3 errors (3B Ingold with 8 errors, SS Bryant with 7 errors), and with the team having given up only 17 unearned runs (vs. 36 unearned runs allowed by Rice). Their OF is both fast and strong-armed, particularly in CF, where Jebavy has already cut down 5 runners trying to score or stretch an extra base. At catcher, Adkins has a very strong arm, and we need to be aware of his penchant for throwing behind the runner at 1B or 3B. If I recall correctly, he picked off one of our guys sleeping at 1B last year, and has picked off two runners so far this year.
Their pitching staff appears to be strong at the top-- both in the weekend rotation and bullpen, but lacks quality depth. Consequently, they have suffered dearly in mid-week games, and their across-the-board stats are pedestrian, at best: 4.63 ERA, .267 BAA, 1.73 WHIP, 1.37 K:BB ratio, and averaging 6.3 free passes (BBs, HBPs) vs. 6.6 strikeouts per game. The Blue Raiders use only two left-handers in their regular mix of pitchers, but unfortunately for us, both are Seniors, with one (Jonathan Friebus) being their Friday night starter and the other (Nathan Forest) being their closer. Given how critical the Friday night game is in determining the outcome of the weekend series, we have to find a way to solve our southpaw problem....and the task will be that much more difficult if JC Reeves is held out. Given how much MTSU pitchers have struggled with their control, this might be the series to be patient and really try to work the count. (Note-- in Friebus' win last Friday vs. ODU, he gave up only 4 singles in 5.0 innings of work, but walked 6 batters.) If we can get into the back end of their bullpen, beyond their top 3 relievers listed below, we should be golden, as every other pitcher on their staff has an ERA over 6.25 and most have BAAs over .300. Consequently, working the pitch count is going to be key.
J.Friebus (Sr, LHP): 7 starts, 4-2, 41.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, .277 BAA, 18 BBs, 5 HBP, 35 Ks, only 3 xtrabase hits
N.Hoffmann (Juco, RHP): 5 starts, 2-1, 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, .217 BAA, 15 BBs, 4 HBP, 15 Ks
G.Ring (Jr, RHP): 7 app, 3 starts, 21.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, .272 BAA, 16BBs, 4 WPs, 13 Ks
K.Kessler (Sr, RHP): 7 app, 2 st, 2-0, 1 save, 18.1 IP, 0.98 ERA, .175 BAA, 12 BBs, 24 Ks
N.Forest (Sr, LHP): 10 app, 2-0, 4 saves, 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, .222 BAA, 7 BBs, 19 Ks
B.Stansberry (Fr, RHP): 10 app, 1-0, 25.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, .228 BAA, 15 BBs, 9 HBP, 5 WPs, 17 Ks
Here's the MTSU individual and team stats over their first 27 games, as well as the team roster...
http://goblueraiders.com/documents/2015/...ats_9_.pdf
http://goblueraiders.com/roster.aspx?path=baseball
As mentioned above, the Rice pitching this past week has shown signs of rebounding from it's early March struggles; returning to the form flashed over the first three weeks of the season. After going a couple weeks without reaching double digit strikeouts in a game, I believe we've now reached that level in four of the past five games. It's time for the offense to rediscover the aggressiveness shown the first month of the season, cut down on the recent spike in strikeout frequency, and improve the overall quality of at bats. As for the defense (and recent spate of wild pitches), enough is enough already. We're much better than we have been playing. We need to stop giving away games with Rice beating Rice. Time to put it all together-- dominant pitching, timely and efficient offense, and solid defense. Beginning this weekend, it's now or never. Let's protect our home turf and retake the conference lead. Let's give Coach Graham, who turns a year younger on Monday, an early birthday present. Go Owls!
I've provided the various preseason scouting reports and previews on MTSU below..........
Eric Sorenson ranked Middle Tennessee #114 in his Top 301 preseason countdown...
http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/2015...s-of-2015/
Quote:114- MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (31-27, 17-13)
Projected Conference USA Finish: 8th
2014 ISR: 95
Starters Returning: 5
Weekend Starters: 1
Mid-Week Starters: 1
Key Relievers (15+inns.): 3
Four of the top five hitters return to the roster, including the combo of 2B Austin Bryant (.286) and SS Dustin Delgado (.306) and fellow senior C Michael Adkins (.286) who will keep the .975 fielding up to snuff. LHP Jonathan Frebis (4-6, 4.07) is the lone weekend returnee, but don’t fret because RHP Kooper Kessler (2-2, 3.28, 3svs) and low-90s flinger Garrett Ring (0-3, 4.45) will stock the ‘pen. RHP Heath Slatton (2-1, 5.97) and LHP Brandon Zajac (back from ACL surgery) are high-round talents.
Perfect Game picked MTSU to finish in the middle of the pack in CUSA, with 1B slugger Jared Allen selected to their preseason all-conference team...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...icle=10772
Middle Tennessee State:
Quote:Middle Tennessee welcomes back senior ace Jonathan Frebis with open arms and rightfully so with what he brings to the table. The lefthander not only brings back veteran leadership but also 77 innings from last year’s rotation and features a low-90s fastball, which he throws aggressively, and a much improved breaking ball. Senior righthander Kooper Kessler was used in a variety of ways last spring appearing in 20 games, two of which were starts and he also saved two games. The Blue Raiders will use Kessler in a starting role this spring after putting up a 3.28 ERA and will look to junior Heath Slatton as another option in the weekend rotation. A 6-foot-3 righthander, Slatton shows next-level stuff with a power fastball that he can run up into the mid-90s, and he also possesses the staff’s best breaking ball. A big lefthander at 6-foot-5, Brandon Zajac returned at the end of the fall after missing all of last spring and shows a fastball that gets into the low-90s, giving the coaching staff another option. Freshman righthander Blake Stansbury threw well in fall practice, giving hitters a different look from a very low arm slot and will be relied upon out of the bullpen this year. Senior shortstop Dustin Delgado returns with the top average of .306 and will be joined at the top of the order by JUCO transfer Ronny Jebavy, an athletic outfielder who is expected to make an immediate impact on both sides of the ball. Middle-of-the-order masher Jared Allen returns after blasting a team high ten home runs last spring and was tied for the lead with three triples en route to garnering a first team all-conference selection. A lock-down defensive catcher who hit .286 last spring, senior Michael Adkins showed his arm strength on the mound during the fall working in the 90-92 mph range.
D1Baseball picked MTSU to finish toward the bottom of the conference...
http://www.d1baseball.com/prospects/2015...rence-usa/
Quote:Middle Tennessee State looks to lean on its position players early as it decides which pitchers will play key roles this spring. OF Jared Allen (.257/10/33) led C-USA in home runs last season. Heath Slatton (2-1, 5.97) was 92-96 in the fall and could be a high draft pick, while junior college transfer RHP Nate Hoffman showed serious stuff in the fall, sitting 89-92 with upside. LHP Jonathon Frebis (4-6, 4.07), Kooper Kessler (2-2, 3.28) and potentially Hoffman could be in the rotation. Frebis is an experienced veteran with good stuff, while Kessler is a 90-92 mph type of arm, and closer Garrett Ring is a premium arm to watch with a 90-94 mph fastball and a developing cutter
.
Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball had a brief mention on MTSU in his weekend preview of the SEC and South region...
http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/talk-...r-answers/
Quote:Middle Tennessee is off to a sparkling 8-1 start in Conference USA. Before any of us think they built this record against the bottom of the league, keep in mind they have sweeps of UAB (finished second in 2014) and Old Dominion (regional squad in 2014), and won a road series at Florida Atlantic (currently 22-6). The Blue Raiders go to C-USA bully Rice this weekend.
/
Middle Tennessee Baseball Preview-- Retaking The Conference Lead
