RE: ESPN, the SEC, the ACC, Texas, and OU (LONG POST)
Great thread. A few observations.
The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.
Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.
On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.
Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.
My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.
Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.
I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.
UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.
Curious about folks thoughts.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2015 09:22 AM by orangefan.)
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