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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #1
Presidential Horse Race Thread
An early "dark horse" favorite just dropped out of the GOP race, saying pretty directly that he's doing it to stop Trump and encouraging others to drop out. Speaking of which, the two candidates after Trump with the most support are Carson and Fiorina, neither of whom has ever held public office, either. And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

Meanwhile Sanders is leading Clinton in some Iowa and NH polls, and Biden may very well jump in.

And we don't have a thread on all this? What has become of the Quad?

04-jawdrop
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2015 07:45 AM by JustAnotherAustinOwl.)
09-22-2015 07:44 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 07:44 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  An early "dark horse" favorite just dropped out of the GOP race, saying pretty directly that he's doing it to stop Trump and encouraging others to drop out. Speaking of which, the two candidates after Trump with the most support are Carson and Fiorina, neither of whom has ever held public office, either. And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

Meanwhile Sanders is leading Clinton in some Iowa and NH polls, and Biden may very well jump in.

And we don't have a thread on all this? What has become of the Quad?

04-jawdrop

I think your bolded statement is a misstatement of the facts.
\

There does seem to be a strong backlash against politics as usual in both parties. Hillary is the most politics as usual candidate, and now Dems are seeming saying anybody but Hillary. On the Rep side, I think they will settle on one of the Politics as usual guys and pair them with Fiorena. I look for a Rubio-Fiorena ticket.
09-22-2015 07:54 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 07:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:44 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  An early "dark horse" favorite just dropped out of the GOP race, saying pretty directly that he's doing it to stop Trump and encouraging others to drop out. Speaking of which, the two candidates after Trump with the most support are Carson and Fiorina, neither of whom has ever held public office, either. And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

Meanwhile Sanders is leading Clinton in some Iowa and NH polls, and Biden may very well jump in.

And we don't have a thread on all this? What has become of the Quad?

04-jawdrop

I think your bolded statement is a misstatement of the facts.
\

There does seem to be a strong backlash against politics as usual in both parties. Hillary is the most politics as usual candidate, and now Dems are seeming saying anybody but Hillary. On the Rep side, I think they will settle on one of the Politics as usual guys and pair them with Fiorena. I look for a Rubio-Fiorena ticket.

I'm not sold on Fiorena, but time will tell. At the moment, I think Kasich will be the VP on whatever Republican ticket is made. Winning Ohio is a big deal.
09-22-2015 09:25 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 09:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:44 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  An early "dark horse" favorite just dropped out of the GOP race, saying pretty directly that he's doing it to stop Trump and encouraging others to drop out. Speaking of which, the two candidates after Trump with the most support are Carson and Fiorina, neither of whom has ever held public office, either. And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

Meanwhile Sanders is leading Clinton in some Iowa and NH polls, and Biden may very well jump in.

And we don't have a thread on all this? What has become of the Quad?

04-jawdrop

I think your bolded statement is a misstatement of the facts.
\

There does seem to be a strong backlash against politics as usual in both parties. Hillary is the most politics as usual candidate, and now Dems are seeming saying anybody but Hillary. On the Rep side, I think they will settle on one of the Politics as usual guys and pair them with Fiorena. I look for a Rubio-Fiorena ticket.

I'm not sold on Fiorena, but time will tell. At the moment, I think Kasich will be the VP on whatever Republican ticket is made. Winning Ohio is a big deal.

Good point. ( Kasich was my #1 before all the debates, etc). But eroding away at expected Democratic strength with women and Hispanics are big deals too. But any combination of those three, and a few others, would be OK with me.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2015 10:16 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
09-22-2015 09:39 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
I'd love to see Sanders/Paul. I know it would never happen, but it would certainly shake things up
09-22-2015 10:05 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 10:05 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I'd love to see Sanders/Paul. I know it would never happen, but it would certainly shake things up

Steel cage death match.
09-22-2015 10:14 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 07:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:44 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:   And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

I think your bolded statement is a misstatement of the facts.
\

I prefer "spin to start a conversation" but fair enough. ;-)

The front runner is fanning the flames to keep the "question" alive and the other GOP candidates have been pretty slow/weak in condemning it, IMHO. Bush did, so I'll give him credit for that.
09-22-2015 10:14 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 09:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I'm not sold on Fiorena, but time will tell. At the moment, I think Kasich will be the VP on whatever Republican ticket is made. Winning Ohio is a big deal.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Kasich isn't on the very short list for VP. As a Democrat, Kasich is the Republican who most scares me in a general election and least scares me as a potential president.

What's interesting is if you remember Kasich from the 80s and 90s is that he wasn't considered a moderate at all. I don't know to what degree it's that he's moderated vs. the GOP drifting right. Though I think a lot of it is that he seems interested in actually governing, unlike a Ted Cruz.

I think President Kasich with a Democratic congress would actually function pretty well. (Not that they'd be enacting my first choice policies, but they'd be governing.) But any scenario where the Republican wins the presidency will probably have the Republicans in control of both houses.
09-22-2015 10:52 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 10:14 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 07:44 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:   And the GOP candidates are actually still arguing about whether Obama is an American and/or a Muslim.

I think your bolded statement is a misstatement of the facts.
\

I prefer "spin to start a conversation" but fair enough. ;-)

The front runner is fanning the flames to keep the "question" alive and the other GOP candidates have been pretty slow/weak in condemning it, IMHO. Bush did, so I'll give him credit for that.

The front runner (whose edge is eroding) failed to correct a questioner on his premises. If that is fanning the flames to keep the question alive, then you are correct. My feeling is that it is a misstep by a tyro, to be expected of a relative novice, especially one as overconfident as Trump.

Nice of you to give Bush credit on your second post. I guess from the omissions the others have not addressed it yet?

But I don't care about the bias in your characterizations of the candidates, and don't want to make that the center of discussion. Enough on that. I think your original premise was much more interesting, the backlash in both parties against the political establishment. At least that is what I saw as the central statement. Will we end up rebelling against politics as usual and electing a true political outsider, a novice? I think not, but I think the party(s) will try to take advantage of the discontent. That's why I think Fiorena could well end up as the VP candidate. I wonder if her rhetoric that women are not a special interest group will resonate with voters and offset the so-called "War on Women" that we used to hear of a lot.

I wonder if Sanders' popularity and/or the desire for Biden/Warren reflect a Not-Hillary bias within the Dems. What do you think?
09-22-2015 01:42 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
you didn't ask me, but i think the issue with the dems is who draws outside the base?

I think Hillary has strong support from a group of dems too small to win the general election... and no support from the disaffected who flocked to Obama and now somewhat flock to Bernie. And worse for her, she motivates the base on the right to vote against her.

This is the election that an 'outsider' can win. Establishment Republicans who might not otherwise 'aggressively' support someone like Paul or Trump would come out in droves if they were up against Hillary... and Establishment Dems who wouldn't otherwise aggressively support Sanders would similarly do so if Bush were nominated.
09-22-2015 02:18 PM
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JSA Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 02:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  you didn't ask me, but i think the issue with the dems is who draws outside the base?

I think Hillary has strong support from a group of dems too small to win the general election... and no support from the disaffected who flocked to Obama and now somewhat flock to Bernie. And worse for her, she motivates the base on the right to vote against her.

This is the election that an 'outsider' can win. Establishment Republicans who might not otherwise 'aggressively' support someone like Paul or Trump would come out in droves if they were up against Hillary... and Establishment Dems who wouldn't otherwise aggressively support Sanders would similarly do so if Bush were nominated.

That presents four scenarios:

Establishment vs. Establishment (Bush vs. Clinton)
GOP Establishment vs. Dem Outsider (Bush vs. Sanders)
GOP Outsider vs. Dem Establishment (Paul vs. Clinton)
Outsider vs. Outsider (Paul vs. Sanders)

Who wins?

Have we ever had an Outsider vs. Outsider election?
09-22-2015 04:04 PM
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RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
Ugh, too early to discuss in earnest. Still in the silly season.

My prediction: Trump will either a) have dropped out by the time the Republican National Convention rolls around, or b) stay in it but get less than 10% of the delegates.

[Wow, am I rusty on this Presidential campaign stuff. I guess the 4 year wait is pretty significant, or maybe because I was out of the country for most of 2012, but I couldn't remember whether it was "Republic National Convention" or "Republican Nominating Convention", and couldn't remember what the unit of votes was called - all I could think of was electoral college votes. Had to look them both up.]
09-22-2015 04:42 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Online
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RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 04:04 PM)JSA Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 02:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  you didn't ask me, but i think the issue with the dems is who draws outside the base?

I think Hillary has strong support from a group of dems too small to win the general election... and no support from the disaffected who flocked to Obama and now somewhat flock to Bernie. And worse for her, she motivates the base on the right to vote against her.

This is the election that an 'outsider' can win. Establishment Republicans who might not otherwise 'aggressively' support someone like Paul or Trump would come out in droves if they were up against Hillary... and Establishment Dems who wouldn't otherwise aggressively support Sanders would similarly do so if Bush were nominated.

That presents four scenarios:

Establishment vs. Establishment (Bush vs. Clinton)
GOP Establishment vs. Dem Outsider (Bush vs. Sanders)
GOP Outsider vs. Dem Establishment (Paul vs. Clinton)
Outsider vs. Outsider (Paul vs. Sanders)

Who wins?

Have we ever had an Outsider vs. Outsider election?

I'm not sure if I'd say Paul is the outsider on the Republican side when you have Trump, Carson and Fiorina there too.

I think Bush, Kasich or Rubio ends up getting the Republican nomination. And call me crazy, but I think the Democratic bid will end up with someone who hasn't officially started his/her bid yet. Biden would be the most logical person, but the NY Post reported earlier this week that some people are trying to get Michael Bloomberg to enter the race on the Democratic side.
09-22-2015 05:50 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 05:50 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 04:04 PM)JSA Wrote:  
(09-22-2015 02:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  you didn't ask me, but i think the issue with the dems is who draws outside the base?

I think Hillary has strong support from a group of dems too small to win the general election... and no support from the disaffected who flocked to Obama and now somewhat flock to Bernie. And worse for her, she motivates the base on the right to vote against her.

This is the election that an 'outsider' can win. Establishment Republicans who might not otherwise 'aggressively' support someone like Paul or Trump would come out in droves if they were up against Hillary... and Establishment Dems who wouldn't otherwise aggressively support Sanders would similarly do so if Bush were nominated.

That presents four scenarios:

Establishment vs. Establishment (Bush vs. Clinton)
GOP Establishment vs. Dem Outsider (Bush vs. Sanders)
GOP Outsider vs. Dem Establishment (Paul vs. Clinton)
Outsider vs. Outsider (Paul vs. Sanders)

Who wins?

Have we ever had an Outsider vs. Outsider election?

I'm not sure if I'd say Paul is the outsider on the Republican side when you have Trump, Carson and Fiorina there too.

I think Bush, Kasich or Rubio ends up getting the Republican nomination. And call me crazy, but I think the Democratic bid will end up with someone who hasn't officially started his/her bid yet. Biden would be the most logical person, but the NY Post reported earlier this week that some people are trying to get Michael Bloomberg to enter the race on the Democratic side.

I 'think' that JSA was doing as I did and presenting people who represented the position, and not necessarily the only ones who represented that position simply for ease.

I think your idea is entirely possible as at about this time in the cycle 8 years ago, Obama was just starting to get any serious mention at all and Hillary was the presumptive nominee as I recall. Having said that, I think more people are aware of someone like Bloomberg, so he could perhaps come on even later than Obama.

It's odd that a 2 term VP of a relatively (at least within his own party) popular President is such an outsider when it comes to the election. Even if he had previously said he wasn't interested or anything else, the chatter in favor of him is almost non-existent.

JSA, what I'd find interesting is that while outsiders, they'd still obviously carry their parties. Perhaps not 'strongly', but as well it seems as the establishment candidates would, and obviously more with the fringe elements of the parties and independents. The electoral college math might be strained.
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2015 09:42 AM by Hambone10.)
09-23-2015 09:42 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
While I think it would make a lot of sense for the GOP to nominate Kasich, one thing that will happen if he starts getting traction in the polls is the other candidates will start attacking his Hillarycare alternative from the 90s. It included such things as an individual mandate requiring individuals to purchase coverage and "purchasing pools" to help them do so. Sound familiar?

Of course, back then the individual mandate was about "personal responsibility" instead of "socialist tyranny" which is going to destroy America as we know it.

I've seen the argument that Rubio might get the nomination by default. It's the most plausible thing I've seen. I have friends who work in politics and others who are political scientists and they agree this is a really odd election. Could it return to the norm by the time the primaries start? Maybe, maybe not.

I still think Clinton will be the democratic nominee, but have to admit I'm less confident in that prediction than I was a couple months ago. I love Bernie and have been a fan since he was mayor of Burlington. But I can't see him getting the nomination. Biden has run twice before and frankly was a pretty bad candidate. Not convinced he will get in. O'Malley would actually be a pretty good option if Hillary hadn't sucked all the air out of the room already.

I think the anti-Hillary faction within the Dem base comes from two things. On policy she's been pretty hawkish on foreign policy, and she's seen as pretty close to Wall Street. There's a lot of anger in the Dem base at Wall Street and more generally about the increasing inequality in the country. On the electability side I think many, myself included, have Clinton fatigue. I think the email scandal and the Clinton foundation stuff is much ado about very little. But the fact that it goes on and on and on is in part the Clinton's fault for often playing a bit too close to the edge of the rules. And despite claims of "liberal media" the beltway media really, really dislikes Clinton and are happy to perpetuate these stories. And the part of the GOP base who thinks she had Vince Foster murdered is going to lead to endless investigations. How many Bengahzi investigations have we had now? And now they want *all* the emails on her server (this is probably what she was trying to avoid). Yeah, I'm sure if that happens there won't be a steady drip of emails leaked to the media at strategic times throughout the campaign.

So, I'll vote for her if she's the nominee, possibly even in the primary, but yet the idea of another Clinton presidency exhausts me on some level.
09-23-2015 10:25 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-22-2015 01:42 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Nice of you to give Bush credit on your second post. I guess from the omissions the others have not addressed it yet?

A quick google source revealed that Lindsey Graham quickly and forcefully repudiated trump, Christie did too, though I don't know if it was as quickly as Graham.

Cruz on the other hand, in reaction to Carson's comments about how Muslims shouldn't be President, implied we might have already had a Muslim president...


Disclaimer: My research on this topic was non-exhaustive.
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2015 10:29 AM by JustAnotherAustinOwl.)
09-23-2015 10:29 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-23-2015 10:25 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  While I think it would make a lot of sense for the GOP to nominate Kasich, one thing that will happen if he starts getting traction in the polls is the other candidates will start attacking his Hillarycare alternative from the 90s. It included such things as an individual mandate requiring individuals to purchase coverage and "purchasing pools" to help them do so. Sound familiar?

IIRC correctly, Kasich's approach was basically the Heritage proposal, which was an adaptation of the German Bismarck approach. I would actually prefer the French Bismarck approach, as it is slightly more free market oriented, but I would prefer either to Obamacare. I really don't understand why republicans did not pass something along those lines when they took over congress in 1994. That would have been a far better use of their time than Monicagate.

But I digress. My major point is that the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck mandate is nothing like the Obamacare mandate and the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck "purchasing pools" work nothing like the Obamacare exchanges. In fact, Obamacare specifically denies the primary purpose of the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck "purchasing pools"--interstate purchase of health insurance.

I would hope that Kasich could do a better job of explaining the massive substantive differences between his mandates and purchasing pools and the things that sound similar about Obamacare than Romney could do with Romneycare. As I've said before, democrats borrowed republican WORDS for Obamacare, but they lacked the integrity to include the ideas that went with those words. And republicans seem unwilling to call them out on it.
09-23-2015 10:43 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-23-2015 10:43 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(09-23-2015 10:25 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  While I think it would make a lot of sense for the GOP to nominate Kasich, one thing that will happen if he starts getting traction in the polls is the other candidates will start attacking his Hillarycare alternative from the 90s. It included such things as an individual mandate requiring individuals to purchase coverage and "purchasing pools" to help them do so. Sound familiar?

IIRC correctly, Kasich's approach was basically the Heritage proposal, which was an adaptation of the German Bismarck approach. I would actually prefer the French Bismarck approach, as it is slightly more free market oriented, but I would prefer either to Obamacare. I really don't understand why republicans did not pass something along those lines when they took over congress in 1994. That would have been a far better use of their time than Monicagate.

But I digress. My major point is that the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck mandate is nothing like the Obamacare mandate and the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck "purchasing pools" work nothing like the Obamacare exchanges. In fact, Obamacare specifically denies the primary purpose of the Kasich/Heritage/Bismarck "purchasing pools"--interstate purchase of health insurance.

I would hope that Kasich could do a better job of explaining the massive substantive differences between his mandates and purchasing pools and the things that sound similar about Obamacare than Romney could do with Romneycare. As I've said before, democrats borrowed republican WORDS for Obamacare, but they lacked the integrity to include the ideas that went with those words. And republicans seem unwilling to call them out on it.

We've had this debate before, and I think we have to agree to disagree that they are massively different policies.

But even if I were to concede that you are correct on the substance, "Yes it sounds exactly like Obamacare, but really, it's totally different!" is still not the argument a candidate wants to be making in the GOP primary.
09-23-2015 11:13 AM
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JSA Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
"JSA, what I'd find interesting is that while outsiders, they'd still obviously carry their parties. Perhaps not 'strongly', but as well it seems as the establishment candidates would, and obviously more with the fringe elements of the parties and independents. The electoral college math might be strained."

That's something I was thinking about yesterday, when does an outsider become establishment (or vice versa)?
09-23-2015 11:26 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(09-23-2015 11:13 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  We've had this debate before, and I think we have to agree to disagree that they are massively different policies.

If you can say with a straight face that a "purchasing pool" whose express purpose is to facilitate interstate purchases of health insurance is not massively different from an exchange where interstate purchases are prohibited, or that a mandate offset by a tax credit is not massively different from a mandate that must be paid 100% out of pocket, then I suppose we can agree to disagree.

Agree with you on how it will play with republicans--which is a mistake on the part of republicans.
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2015 11:31 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
09-23-2015 11:30 AM
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