(10-18-2015 10:27 AM)I AM an Eagle! Wrote:  Georgia Southern plays @ Appalachian State and @ Georgia...we win out and I like our chances at 11-1.

With no marquee wins and a 44-0 loss to West Virginia, Georgia Southern has no chance at the access bowl this year.

(10-17-2015 03:10 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Toledo hasn't lost a game.

Memphis has a slight resume advantage over Toledo IF both schools win their prospective conferences.

You can't put Houston in front of Toledo since Houston doesn't have Toledo's resume. The same with Temple.

Memphis schedule could now have ranked wins against Ole Miss, Temple, and Houston. Toledo would have 1 against Arkansas(and that isn't a good win now). Houston would have ranked wins against Memphis and Temple. Temple can get a good win against Notre Dame.

Sorry MAC Fanboy- but Toledo is in a LOT of trouble. They need the AAC to implode to have much of a shot. And Toledo is it now for the MAC.

Regardless of what you say I'm still not ruling out any schools with 2 or less losses at this point.

Unless they've been eliminated from the conference race entirely or we are in the final week of the season and the AAC has multiple undefeated teams. Somehow I don't think the AAC will finish with multiple undefeated teams.

The AAC team does not need an undefeated team to take the access spot. Any one-loss AAC team will get the bid.

(10-18-2015 11:45 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 10:27 AM)I AM an Eagle! Wrote:  Georgia Southern plays @ Appalachian State and @ Georgia...we win out and I like our chances at 11-1.

With no marquee wins and a 44-0 loss to West Virginia, Georgia Southern has no chance at the access bowl this year.

A win @ App and a win @ Georgia would be two marquee wins...the 44-0 loss was with our backup QB who threw 4 interceptions and had 2 fumbles. We may not have won the game with our starter (suspended first 2 games of 2015) but we sure wouldn't have been skunked like that.

11-1 Georgia Southern would have a legitimate argument.

(10-18-2015 12:17 PM)I AM an Eagle! Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 11:45 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 10:27 AM)I AM an Eagle! Wrote:  Georgia Southern plays @ Appalachian State and @ Georgia...we win out and I like our chances at 11-1.

With no marquee wins and a 44-0 loss to West Virginia, Georgia Southern has no chance at the access bowl this year.

A win @ App and a win @ Georgia would be two marquee wins...the 44-0 loss was with our backup QB who threw 4 interceptions and had 2 fumbles. We may not have won the game with our starter (suspended first 2 games of 2015) but we sure wouldn't have been skunked like that.

11-1 Georgia Southern would have a legitimate argument.

Over who? A 2 loss champ from another league? Sure. Georgia would be semi-marquee, but not as impressive as some other G5 wins.

The 44-0 loss to a mediocre WVU hurts pretty bad. App is not a "marquee" win. They aren't getting any votes in either poll. It's a good win but not marquee.

I'm not trying to down your team. You've got a great team, and what you've been able to do has been fantastic. But you aren't in the contest until Toledo or the AAC champ loses 2 games (and possibly WKU also).

You could get there, but are not there yet...even at 11-1, unless some other teams start losing. Just being honest.

(10-18-2015 09:27 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  I agree that with Memphis win yesterday, they are in the lead, with Toledo slightly behind. However, if Utah State wins out, with a loss or two of the AAC champ, they have a high chance of getting the spot. They still have BYU at the end of the year before the MWC championship game who took out 3 AAC teams.

What is a "high chance"? 2:1 for? 1:1? 1:4 against?

I don't see a two-loss MWC school having much chance, since while somebody has to lose those tough AAC match-ups, somebody has to win too, and the odds of a one-loss or undefeated AAC champ is looking stronger as the season progresses. At present Memphis is 18th with 553 votes, Toledo 19th with 345 votes, Houston 21st with 317 and Temple 22nd with 216, while Utah State is "ARV" with 7, after beating "formerly ranked, now no longer receiving votes" Boise State.

And at this point BYU at the end of the year is not beating a team ranked at the time, its playing an "also receiving votes" team that may well not be receiving votes after a loss to Utah State.

One advantage that Toledo might have is the Non Game vs Stony Brook. One less game to lessen the resume


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Espn has 5 conferences with great teams fighting for a scrap and no one even questions it

Smh

(10-17-2015 09:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bye Bye Boise!

Yes

(10-18-2015 11:51 AM)splitstud Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:10 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Toledo hasn't lost a game.

Memphis has a slight resume advantage over Toledo IF both schools win their prospective conferences.

You can't put Houston in front of Toledo since Houston doesn't have Toledo's resume. The same with Temple.

Memphis schedule could now have ranked wins against Ole Miss, Temple, and Houston. Toledo would have 1 against Arkansas(and that isn't a good win now). Houston would have ranked wins against Memphis and Temple. Temple can get a good win against Notre Dame.

Sorry MAC Fanboy- but Toledo is in a LOT of trouble. They need the AAC to implode to have much of a shot. And Toledo is it now for the MAC.

Regardless of what you say I'm still not ruling out any schools with 2 or less losses at this point.

Unless they've been eliminated from the conference race entirely or we are in the final week of the season and the AAC has multiple undefeated teams. Somehow I don't think the AAC will finish with multiple undefeated teams.

Agreed
The AAC team does not need an undefeated team to take the access spot. Any one-loss AAC team will get the bid.

(10-18-2015 11:51 AM)splitstud Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:10 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Toledo hasn't lost a game.

Memphis has a slight resume advantage over Toledo IF both schools win their prospective conferences.

You can't put Houston in front of Toledo since Houston doesn't have Toledo's resume. The same with Temple.

Memphis schedule could now have ranked wins against Ole Miss, Temple, and Houston. Toledo would have 1 against Arkansas(and that isn't a good win now). Houston would have ranked wins against Memphis and Temple. Temple can get a good win against Notre Dame.

Sorry MAC Fanboy- but Toledo is in a LOT of trouble. They need the AAC to implode to have much of a shot. And Toledo is it now for the MAC.

Regardless of what you say I'm still not ruling out any schools with 2 or less losses at this point.

Unless they've been eliminated from the conference race entirely or we are in the final week of the season and the AAC has multiple undefeated teams. Somehow I don't think the AAC will finish with multiple undefeated teams.

The AAC team does not need an undefeated team to take the access spot. Any one-loss AAC team will get the bid.

Agreed

I see the AAC Arrogance is in full effect. An undefeated Memphis gets the bid. Possibly a one loss Memphis gets in over an undefeated Toledo. Any other - no

(10-18-2015 11:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I see the AAC Arrogance is in full effect. An undefeated Memphis gets the bid. Possibly a one loss Memphis gets in over an undefeated Toledo. Any other - no

I agree the arrogance is real in here.

However, when does the strength of the AAC come into play for people saying otherwise?

The AAC went 10-1 against the rest of the G5.
The AAC has 7 P5 conference wins.

1. Kansas (Big 12)
2. Virginia Tech (ACC)
3. Louisville (ACC)
4. Syracuse (ACC)
5. Miami (ACC)
6. Penn State (B1G)
7. Ole Miss (SEC)

We still have OOC games against Notre Dame and Vanderbilt to possibly push that number even further.

The AAC has a winning record against all of the FBS.
The AAC has a winning record against the ACC 4-3. The ACC wins were 2 against Tulane and 1 against USF.
The AAC has 3 undefeated teams in #18 Memphis 6-0, #21 Houston 6-0, #22 Temple 6-0.
The AAC has other strong teams in Navy, ECU, Cincinnati, and Tulsa.

Before anyone judges Tulsa, Cincy and ECU look at who they have lost to.

1. Cincy lost to #22 Temple 6-0, @ #18 Memphis 6-0, and @ BYU 5-2. (17-2)

2. ECU lost @ Navy 4-1, @ #13 Florida 6-1, and @ BYU 5-2. (15-4)

3. Tulsa lost @ #17 Oklahoma 5-1, #21 Houston 6-0, and @ ECU 3-3. (14-4)

4. Navy has lost @ #11 Notre Dame 5-1. (5-1)

SMU 1-5, Tulane 2-4, and UCF 0-6 have accounted for 9 of our OOC losses and 2 of those losses to FCS and that's ok. We have 9 teams that are competitive as of right now and 5 that are good to very good.

There isn't one single G5 conference that has the quality of the AAC this season and to think otherwise is absolutely ridiculous.

Beating MAC schools, C-USA schools, Sunbelt schools and the current MWC do not compare to the type of in conference gauntlet the AAC has this season. It would be a complete disgrace for any other conference to get it this season because we beat ourselves up.

The AAC dominated the rest of the G5 this season. The AAC beat way more P5 teams then the rest of the G5 this season, and so on... I could go on and on.

Toledo's best win? Arkansas 2-4 currently who I think will end up with 5 wins.

Here is the gauntlet they have to get through this season.

1. Stony Brook (Cancelled)
2. Ball State
3. Arkansas State
4. Kent State
5. EMU
6. UMASS
7. NIU
8. CMU
9. @ BGSU
10. WMU
11. Arkansas
12. Iowa State

As I said, Iowa State and Arkansas are gonna be decent at best wins because of the competition those teams have to play in conference, but Iowa State is not a good team. Arkansas is getting better which is why I made sure to list they would probably have 5 wins showing I expect them to split their remaining 6 games.

Compare that to AAC competition/schedules.

Memphis for example.

1. Missouri State
2. @ Kansas
3. @ BGSU
4. Cincy
5. @ USF
6. Ole Miss
7. @ Tulsa
8. Tulane
9. Navy
10. @ Houston
11. @ Temple
12. SMU

How about Temple.

1. Penn State
2. @ Cincinnati
3. @ UMass
4. @ Charlotte
5. Tulane
6. UCF
7. @ ECU
8. Notre Dame
9. @ SMU
10. @ USF
11. Memphis
12. UConn

Or Houston.

1. Tennessee Tech
2. @ Louisville
3. Texas State
4. @ Tulsa
5. SMU
6. @ Tulane
7. @ UCF
8. Vanderbilt
9. Cincinnati
10. Memphis
11. UConn
12. Navy

How about ECU?

1. Towson
2. @ Florida
3. @ Navy
4. Virginia Tech
5. @ SMU
6. @ BYU
7. Tulsa
8. Temple
9. @ UConn
10. USF
11. @ UCF
12. Cincinnati

Oh, here's Cincinnati's schedule too.

1. Alabama A&M
2. Temple
3. Miami- OH
4. @ Memphis
5. Miami, Fl
6. @ BYU
7. UConn
8. UCF
9. @ Houston
10. Tulsa
11. @ USF
12. @ ECU

Lastly, what is Tulsa looking at schedule wise?

1. Florida Atlantic
2. @ New Mexico
3. @ Oklahoma
4. Houston
5. Louisiana Monroe
6. ECU
7.Memphis
8. @ SMU
9. @ UCF
10. @ Cincinnati
11. Navy
12. @ Tulane

Wonder why the AAC fans are saying what we're saying. These are all of the reasons why. We played tough schedules, we did what we had to do out of conference, and for this season (Who knows about the seasons moving forward) regardless of what happens moving forward the AAC has proven that it is the best G5 conference without a doubt 100%.

Toledo getting it over even a 2 loss AAC Champ who ONLY lost in conference or to say Notre Dame or another strong P5 would be ridiculous. Same with anyone else...

The committee would have ZERO ground to stand on and everything that they said mattered would be nothing but BS.

Not being arrogant with my post, I am being realistic.

Argue if you want too. At least make sure it makes sense. If it's just a bunch of nonsense, you can go back to talking to some of the other people just typing a bunch on nonsense.

(10-19-2015 02:16 AM)Tigermaniac Wrote:  Toledo getting it over even a 2 loss AAC Champ who ONLY lost in conference or to say Notre Dame or another strong P5 would be ridiculous. Same with anyone else...

The committee would have ZERO ground to stand on and everything that they said mattered would be nothing but BS.

You have good arguments. Nevertheless, I think you are mistaken. If Toledo wins out, they will get the Access slot over any AAC team that has a loss. The AAC champ will have the same record as Toledo to get the bid over them.

That is the reality of it.

(10-18-2015 07:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 09:27 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  I agree that with Memphis win yesterday, they are in the lead, with Toledo slightly behind. However, if Utah State wins out, with a loss or two of the AAC champ, they have a high chance of getting the spot. They still have BYU at the end of the year before the MWC championship game who took out 3 AAC teams.

What is a "high chance"? 2:1 for? 1:1? 1:4 against?

I don't see a two-loss MWC school having much chance, since while somebody has to lose those tough AAC match-ups, somebody has to win too, and the odds of a one-loss or undefeated AAC champ is looking stronger as the season progresses. At present Memphis is 18th with 553 votes, Toledo 19th with 345 votes, Houston 21st with 317 and Temple 22nd with 216, while Utah State is "ARV" with 7, after beating "formerly ranked, now no longer receiving votes" Boise State.

And at this point BYU at the end of the year is not beating a team ranked at the time, its playing an "also receiving votes" team that may well not be receiving votes after a loss to Utah State.

Remember how the committee also takes into account the SOS. It was why that hardly rated any G5 until the end of the year. Utah St. is #38 in SOS, Memphis the AAC highest @ #72 per Saragin. The committee will have their formula for SOS in their ranking and we don't how they calculate SOS. So given a loss from an AAC Champ I give Utah St, 60% chance based on SOS with 2 losses vs a 1 loss AAC champ.
For all we know, Memphis may not be a ranked team on the committee rankings vs the AP Poll. That how it was last year with Marshall and Boise State, but the committee kept choosing and 4 loss Utah team for the 25the spot vs Marshall or BSU with 1 and 2 losses respectively.

(10-19-2015 07:53 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 07:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 09:27 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  I agree that with Memphis win yesterday, they are in the lead, with Toledo slightly behind. However, if Utah State wins out, with a loss or two of the AAC champ, they have a high chance of getting the spot. They still have BYU at the end of the year before the MWC championship game who took out 3 AAC teams.

What is a "high chance"? 2:1 for? 1:1? 1:4 against?

I don't see a two-loss MWC school having much chance, since while somebody has to lose those tough AAC match-ups, somebody has to win too, and the odds of a one-loss or undefeated AAC champ is looking stronger as the season progresses. At present Memphis is 18th with 553 votes, Toledo 19th with 345 votes, Houston 21st with 317 and Temple 22nd with 216, while Utah State is "ARV" with 7, after beating "formerly ranked, now no longer receiving votes" Boise State.

And at this point BYU at the end of the year is not beating a team ranked at the time, its playing an "also receiving votes" team that may well not be receiving votes after a loss to Utah State.

Remember how the committee also takes into account the SOS. It was why that hardly rated any G5 until the end of the year. Utah St. is #38 in SOS, Memphis the AAC highest @ #72 per Saragin. The committee will have their formula for SOS in their ranking and we don't how they calculate SOS. So given a loss from an AAC Champ I give Utah St, 60% chance based on SOS with 2 losses vs a 1 loss AAC champ.
For all we know, Memphis may not be a ranked team on the committee rankings vs the AP Poll. That how it was last year with Marshall and Boise State, but the committee kept choosing and 4 loss Utah team for the 25the spot vs Marshall or BSU with 1 and 2 losses respectively.

The problem with your logic is that it's for the schedule for games played so far....

So Utah State- games left:
San Diego St 4-3
Wyoming 1-6
New Mexico 4-3
Air Force 3-3
Nevada 3-4
BYU 5-2
total 20-21
Memphis- games left
Tulsa 3-3
Tulane 2-4
Navy 4-1
Temple 6-0
Houston 6-0
SMU 1-5
total 22-13

So even if SOS goes Utah St's way right now- Memphis will pass them in spades going forward(and this doesn't even take into account the CCG where USU won't play a team with fewer than 4 losses if they win out(as they would hand San Diego St 4th loss), while Memphis would play at worst a 2-3 loss team...

And sorry- but to compare Memphis schedule to Marshall's last year is frankly ignorant. Marshall last year had an historically bad schedule. Memphis just beat a top 25 SEC team OOC.

Also would say in other computers it's a lot different
AH-
Utah St 76 SOS
Memphis 78 SOS

Utah St absolutely would need a 2 loss AAC team to have ANY chance. And frankly with what the SOS is going to be- a 3 loss champion. This is Utah St's high mark. They're just going to go down hill from here.

(10-19-2015 08:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 07:53 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 07:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-18-2015 09:27 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  I agree that with Memphis win yesterday, they are in the lead, with Toledo slightly behind. However, if Utah State wins out, with a loss or two of the AAC champ, they have a high chance of getting the spot. They still have BYU at the end of the year before the MWC championship game who took out 3 AAC teams.

What is a "high chance"? 2:1 for? 1:1? 1:4 against?

I don't see a two-loss MWC school having much chance, since while somebody has to lose those tough AAC match-ups, somebody has to win too, and the odds of a one-loss or undefeated AAC champ is looking stronger as the season progresses. At present Memphis is 18th with 553 votes, Toledo 19th with 345 votes, Houston 21st with 317 and Temple 22nd with 216, while Utah State is "ARV" with 7, after beating "formerly ranked, now no longer receiving votes" Boise State.

And at this point BYU at the end of the year is not beating a team ranked at the time, its playing an "also receiving votes" team that may well not be receiving votes after a loss to Utah State.

Remember how the committee also takes into account the SOS. It was why that hardly rated any G5 until the end of the year. Utah St. is #38 in SOS, Memphis the AAC highest @ #72 per Saragin. The committee will have their formula for SOS in their ranking and we don't how they calculate SOS. So given a loss from an AAC Champ I give Utah St, 60% chance based on SOS with 2 losses vs a 1 loss AAC champ.
For all we know, Memphis may not be a ranked team on the committee rankings vs the AP Poll. That how it was last year with Marshall and Boise State, but the committee kept choosing and 4 loss Utah team for the 25the spot vs Marshall or BSU with 1 and 2 losses respectively.

The problem with your logic is that it's for the schedule for games played so far....

So Utah State- games left:
San Diego St 4-3
Wyoming 1-6
New Mexico 4-3
Air Force 3-3
Nevada 3-4
BYU 5-2
total 20-21
Memphis- games left
Tulsa 3-3
Tulane 2-4
Navy 4-1
Temple 6-0
Houston 6-0
SMU 1-5
total 22-13

So even if SOS goes Utah St's way right now- Memphis will pass them in spades going forward(and this doesn't even take into account the CCG where USU won't play a team with fewer than 4 losses if they win out(as they would hand San Diego St 4th loss), while Memphis would play at worst a 2-3 loss team...

And sorry- but to compare Memphis schedule to Marshall's last year is frankly ignorant. Marshall last year had an historically bad schedule. Memphis just beat a top 25 SEC team OOC.

Also would say in other computers it's a lot different
AH-
Utah St 76 SOS
Memphis 78 SOS

Utah St absolutely would need a 2 loss AAC team to have ANY chance. And frankly with what the SOS is going to be- a 3 loss champion. This is Utah St's high mark. They're just going to go down hill from here.

It is clear that if the AAC champ has the same record as the best candidate from another G5, the AAC champ is a certainty to get the Access bid.

Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed, and the AAC eating itself up by its top teams beating each other and/or an upset in the AAC title game, could very well derail AAC access hopes.

(10-17-2015 11:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 11:39 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, Memphis has landed the P5 win they needed to hit the inside track ... but they still don't have that track to themselves.

But the AAC does have the inside track. If Houston, Memphis, or Temple win out, they are in pretty much no matter what now.

^ this cant be denied by any reasonable person.

Those schedules really lay out why the American fans feel pretty good right now.

Bottom line is the American Champ is looking at Top 25 opponents WITHIN the conference schedule...none of the other conferences can match that.

(10-19-2015 09:08 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Those schedules really lay out why the American fans feel pretty good right now.

Bottom line is the American Champ is looking at Top 25 opponents WITHIN the conference schedule...none of the other conferences can match that.

Thing is, though, as soon as one beats the other, the other won't be ranked anymore, making it not such a big win.

(10-19-2015 07:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-19-2015 02:16 AM)Tigermaniac Wrote:  Toledo getting it over even a 2 loss AAC Champ who ONLY lost in conference or to say Notre Dame or another strong P5 would be ridiculous. Same with anyone else...

The committee would have ZERO ground to stand on and everything that they said mattered would be nothing but BS.

You have good arguments. Nevertheless, I think you are mistaken. If Toledo wins out, they will get the Access slot over any AAC team that has a loss. The AAC champ will have the same record as Toledo to get the bid over them.

That is the reality of it.

I don't believe so, my guess is the Committee almost left an undefeated FSU out last year, but couldn't bring themselves to do it since the Big XII didn't have CCG.

They will pick better teams with 1 loss versus 0 loss if they think the team is better, period. This ain't the BCS days.