RE: ***ODU @ Southern Miss game thread***
I took a second to look at the common conference opponents for the Golden Eagles and the Monarchs to see if there might be a hint as to what to expect this week. It turns out ODU and USM have the same 3-1 record against those opponents, with each having wins against Charlotte, UTSA, and UTEP and a loss to Marshall.
The two losses to Marshall appear to be pretty comparable with scores of 27-7 and 31-10. (I will note that the ODU loss to Marshall came before the Monarchs changed quarterbacks.) The scores in the games we both won, however, are not as comparable, with USM having larger margins of win in all three games. The comparisons are favorable in each of these games in the points scored by USM and ODU, but there is some pretty obvious contrast in points allowed with USM allowing an average of only 11 ppg, while ODU allowed an average of almost 29 ppg.
I’m not sure we can take a whole lot from this, but it would seem to me that there is a little bit to chew on. Both offenses could score on the three teams we both beat, but the ODU defense was not as successful at stopping their offenses. So I guess there are two questions – (1) can ODU score on the USM defense that did a much better job against these three common opponents, and (2) can the ODU defense hold USM to a reasonable point total?
I can’t really talk to USM having not seen them play since the Mississippi State game. However, as a Monarch fan, I can note that ODU has made significant strides on offense since changing quarterbacks, and the defense against UTEP last week was the best I have seen from the Monarchs this year. For these reasons, I dont foresee USM handling ODU the way they did Rice.
USM has a better overall record, but like ODU, they don't have a win against a team with a winning record. Their defense against common opponents has allowed fewer points, the game is in Hattiesburg, and the Eagles are rightfully favored. But – (there’s always the “but”) ODU has an offense that continues to get better, and an improving defense. I believe both teams will score in the thirties with a point differential of seven to nine points.
Bottom line for me is -- I expect a pretty close hard-fought game, and the Eagles should win. But, hey – this game has bowl implications for the Monarchs, and as New Mexico showed Boise State, that just might be a difference maker!
ODU
Marshall – lost 27-7
Charlotte – won 37-34
UTSA – won 36-31
UTEP – won 31-21
USM
Marshall - lost 31-10
Charlotte – won 44-10
UTSA – won 32-10
UTEP – won 34-13
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