(05-27-2016 02:55 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Cue the FSU whiners saying they can't compete since they're stuck in the ACC, that the ACC is DOOMED

SEC
Total revenue: $527.4 million
Percentage of revenue distributed to schools: 86.8
Distribution per school: $32.7 million
(Note: The revenue includes only nine months of income from the SEC Network.)

The SEC Network is printing money — the conference’s $527 million in revenue included nine months of the network — and that will only increase as it matures.

The Big Ten just signed a Tier 1 deal with Fox that’s worth as much ($250 million annually) ... and it’s only for half the Big Ten football and basketball inventory.

In other words: The revenue streams for the SEC and Big Ten are growing at a much faster rate ...

Takeaway: We’re seeing the evolution of not two but three tiers of college football when it comes to wealth. First tier: The SEC and Big Ten. Second tier: Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC. Third tier: Group of 5 schools.
-- Jon Wilner

they have a point ...
even with a one-time payout from the maryland settlement ($31M) ...
the difference is stark ...
burying your head in the sand won't wish it away ...
to delay the ACC/ESPN joint venture may cause irrevocable harm ...

TIPPING POINT

(05-28-2016 12:28 PM)green Wrote:  

(05-27-2016 02:55 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Cue the FSU whiners saying they can't compete since they're stuck in the ACC, that the ACC is DOOMED

SEC
Total revenue: $527.4 million
Percentage of revenue distributed to schools: 86.8
Distribution per school: $32.7 million
(Note: The revenue includes only nine months of income from the SEC Network.)

The SEC Network is printing money — the conference’s $527 million in revenue included nine months of the network — and that will only increase as it matures.

The Big Ten just signed a Tier 1 deal with Fox that’s worth as much ($250 million annually) ... and it’s only for half the Big Ten football and basketball inventory.

In other words: The revenue streams for the SEC and Big Ten are growing at a much faster rate ...

Takeaway: We’re seeing the evolution of not two but three tiers of college football when it comes to wealth. First tier: The SEC and Big Ten. Second tier: Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC. Third tier: Group of 5 schools.
-- Jon Wilner

they have a point ...
even with a one-time payout from the maryland settlement ($31M) ...
the difference is stark ...
burying your head in the sand won't wish it away ...
to delay the ACC/ESPN joint venture may cause irrevocable harm ...

TIPPING POINT

I encourage you to encourage your school to apply to join one of those conferences where you can compete. What's that? They don't want you? What a pity! I guess you're just going to have to slum it in the ACC. It's a shame because we don't deserve your magnificence. How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

Of course, probably you think the only thing standing in the way of the untold riches of an ACC network is that damned John Swofford. If he'd just get off his butt, it would happen immediately. If that's what you think, you need to study the situation.

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

5
and duke?

FYI

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Of course, probably you think the only thing standing in the way of the untold riches of an ACC network is that damned John Swofford. If he'd just get off his butt, it would happen immediately. If that's what you think, you need to study the situation.

I like swofford ...
in fact, he was in line to become our athletic director many moons ago ...
betcha didn't know ...
don't care why the holdup ...
but the revenue disparity is unsustainable ...

GET CRACKIN'

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  I encourage you to encourage your school to apply to join one of those conferences where you can compete. What's that? They don't want you? What a pity! I guess you're just going to have to slum it in the ACC. It's a shame because we don't deserve your magnificence.

I don't deserve this award, but I have arthritis and I don't deserve that either.
-- Jack Benny

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...st-june-30

must I remind you who needs whom ...
be careful ...
or duke athletics may go the way of the catholic 7 ...

HOOP-DE-DOO

Thoughts:

*It has been the P2 and then the remaining 3. The only change is the gap is growing (last year around $2-$7 Million with P2 and this year $6-$7 Million).

*An ACC Network does resolve anything unless it comes with a LOT of revenue. The ACC can't extend it's contract with ESPN with these revenue gaps at these levels.

*Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.


Think there is less debate here than is often suggested......it all comes down to this. When the revenue gap starts to exceed $10 Million plus.....things are going to be unstable again. That is just the reality of major college athletics.

(05-28-2016 12:28 PM)green Wrote:  The Big Ten just signed a Tier 1 deal with Fox that’s worth as much ($250 million annually) ... and it’s only for half the Big Ten football and basketball inventory.

Please link a credible source verifying the deal has been signed.

Please also understand that the alleged deal includes Fox getting the top games, thus the remaining games are worth far less than the $250MM for the alleged deal, which reduces the presented value of the B1G payouts (which the B1G is already toning downwards).

Note also:
- No network has provided anything close to Fox' alleged offer
- ESPN is willing to let the B1G walk
- The B1G was so infuriated at ESPN's offer they threatened to walk
- The alleged Fox deal does not guarantee Fox will carry every game, lessening the value of the deal simply by not carrying anything but the elite level games (which has been discussed elsewhere that within the B1G itself only has a few and even at the alleged price there is question whether Fox can turn a profit for the elite games, making the rejection of carrying anything other than elite games highly suspect at the alleged price)
- That Fox has not signed the deal and may be looking for an escape - and probably has one built in!
- The deal is for a short period and is thus likely nothing more than puffery to drive up the cost of B1G games to other networks in an effort increase Fox' partner's income because the BTN is not getting the best games, which is limiting the revenue stream to the BTN.
- That the BTN must use creative accounting analysis to claim victory for the addition of Rutgers and Maryland because they simply are not getting the coverage they thought they would and attempted to demand. Basic math proves that many claims are simply smoke and mirrors and the final payouts are not what was projected.
- That the B1G shares gate receipts (They pay into the B1G a portion of their gate receipts and then divvy that money evenly with the payouts. Thus the payout is "padded" by what the schools have paid in).
- The cable subscribers that the BTN is built on bilking are cutting the cords, the millennials are simply never being corded (never get cable) and many people are pushing for a la carte cable/satellite subscriptions.
- If, as has been suggested, the SEC and B1G could pull away from the remaining P5 schools, they would lose most of the non-B1G viewership they garner now as most people are not going to watch schools they have no other reason to watch than because their school is playing that school or can be impacted by the B1G school they are watching (i.e. playoffs, bowl game).
- The SEC is locked into their agreement for decades, they can be surpassed by every conference in the next 10-15 years.

This has been discussed before in other threads and some people still believe that the B1G is printing money. They get paid well enough, but they are not winning the battle where it counts - On field/court performance.

FSU and Clemson are competing for national titles and Clemson is $60-$80MM behind UT/tOSU annually. FSU breaks the $100MM barrier but still lags behind UT and tOSU by $40-60MM. My numbers are not exact, yet the point remains. Thus, at even $10-$20MM differences in TV deals (which is likely the top end difference over time in today's money), pretending the world is coming to an end is senseless. Pretending that no one will ever compete with the B1G the SEC is senseless.

Even then, the differences are only fractions of a percent to universities that are operating the billions of dollars. To most university boards, president/chancellors and deep pocketed alumni, the differences are not worth the hassle. They understand that over time, everything shifts and changes make old business models useless while new business models are much more profitable. Too many people think in terms of one year or less when they need to have a grasp on the 5 year, 10 year, 20 year and 50 year goals of what are giant corporations, we simply call them universities (most are incorporated as non-profit corporations!).

(05-28-2016 02:47 PM)nole Wrote:  Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.

Please explain how you get a $10MM-$15MM revenue cap figure. No debating your number - you obviously put some thought into it - just not sure how you get there.

I laugh every time I read an article that reasons "Fox offered the Big Ten $250 million/year for HALF of their T1 rights, so we are projecting $35.7M/yr per team ($500M/yr / 14 teams) for Tier 1 only! Add the $8M to $10M/year for the BTN and you're looking at $45M/year per team!!!!!"

First of all, it's "up to" $250M, and that is presumably if it's the absolute best half, thus making the 2nd half much less valuable as HtownOrange pointed out. IMO, they'll be doing good if they get $350M/year TOTAL.

Second, they divide by 14 while insisting the ACC take out a share for the conference (guess what: ALL conferences take out a share, not just the ACC!).

That translates into $23.3M/year ($350M / 15 shares), or about $32M/year/team with BTN money added in -- but a LOT less than $45M/yr. So the question should be how close can the ACC get to $32M/year?

(05-28-2016 02:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

5
and duke?

FYI

Duke has 17 conference football championships dating back to 1933. Green I think you misread Hall.

IIRC Miami has 7 conference football championships.

Duke's last was in 89, Miami's last in 2003. Duke last played a game for a conference title in 2013, Miami, again in 2003.

(05-28-2016 03:53 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:47 PM)nole Wrote:  Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.

Please explain how you get a $10MM-$15MM revenue cap figure. No debating your number - you obviously put some thought into it - just not sure how you get there.

OK, I'll give it a rough shot:

This year:

SEC and B1G approx. $32 Million

ACC approx. $26 Million

Approx $6 Million revenue gap


Next year, the ACC won't get:

*$31 Million Maryland Payout. So subtract a bit over $2 Million from the ACC's $26 million payout....$24 million.

*Due to rotation, no Orange bowl payoff next year...$28 Million, so remove $2 million from ACC $24 million payout...$22 Million.

*Add $4 Million to ACC payout for ACC Network (or $45 Million rumored payout) and TV bump (contract amount grows each year...just est)....so back up to $26 Million.

*IF ACC gets a Conf Network and it's a deal where ACC has to front money, the payout could take a big hit until investment is done and revenue starts to kick in (if there is much revenue there)


SEC/B1G

*Add $40 Million for Sugar/Rose due to rotation....that is $3 Million to $32 Million so we are at $35 Million


SEC

*Add about $3 Million for increase Conf Network (they only got about 8 months revenue out of last years figure) and increase in TV network (like SEC, increasing TV revenue over years)....that puts SEC at about $38 Million

*Similar for B1G above...increase TV contract (biggest increase of any conf).....so approx. at $38 Million (many of hinted at $40 Million).


So ROUGLY, my estimate has ACC next year at around $26 Million to SEC/B1G at $38 Million......or $12 Million revenue gap to this years $6 Million revenue gap.

(05-28-2016 04:39 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I laugh every time I read an article that reasons "Fox offered the Big Ten $250 million/year for HALF of their T1 rights, so we are projecting $35.7M/yr per team ($500M/yr / 14 teams) for Tier 1 only! Add the $8M to $10M/year for the BTN and you're looking at $45M/year per team!!!!!"

First of all, it's "up to" $250M, and that is presumably if it's the absolute best half, thus making the 2nd half much less valuable as HtownOrange pointed out. IMO, they'll be doing good if they get $350M/year TOTAL.

Second, they divide by 14 while insisting the ACC take out a share for the conference (guess what: ALL conferences take out a share, not just the ACC!).

That translates into $23.3M/year ($350M / 15 shares), or about $32M/year/team with BTN money added in -- but a LOT less than $45M/yr. So the question should be how close can the ACC get to $32M/year?

Nothing satisfies fools or trolls.

The Orange Bowl bitching is amazing.

When the Sugar Bowl deal was made, Miami, FSU, and Clemson football were either dead or sleepwalking. Since the game is in New Orleans and attendance is a factor, the likelihood of getting BC, Wake Forest, or GT would scare the Hell out of any sane businessman. Going with the conference that at the time had Texas, TCU, Baylor, TT, Oklahoma and OK State all in the abutting State. Moreover, between FSU, GT, and Clemson, the SEC ran the risk of a rematch that was much less likely with the B12.

The Orange Bowl is simply not worth the same money as the Sugar Bowl because the inherent risk involved with the schools you might get. Even if Clemson and FSU had been as they are now, how much more would the game be worth? $5 million, maybe $10? There is no P-5 conference champion on the other end.

The ACC has it pretty good considering the small average size of the universities and the 20 years that the ACC demphasized football between 1962 and the early 80's.

Anyway, those looking for $20 million or more extra need to add seats to their football stadium and sell those seats.

(05-28-2016 05:07 PM)nole Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 03:53 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:47 PM)nole Wrote:  Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.

Please explain how you get a $10MM-$15MM revenue cap figure. No debating your number - you obviously put some thought into it - just not sure how you get there.

OK, I'll give it a rough shot:

This year:

SEC and B1G approx. $32 Million

ACC approx. $26 Million

Approx $6 Million revenue gap


Next year, the ACC won't get:

*$31 Million Maryland Payout. So subtract a bit over $2 Million from the ACC's $26 million payout....$24 million.

*Due to rotation, no Orange bowl payoff next year...$28 Million, so remove $2 million from ACC $24 million payout...$22 Million.

*Add $4 Million to ACC payout for ACC Network (or $45 Million rumored payout) and TV bump (contract amount grows each year...just est)....so back up to $26 Million.

*IF ACC gets a Conf Network and it's a deal where ACC has to front money, the payout could take a big hit until investment is done and revenue starts to kick in (if there is much revenue there)


SEC/B1G

*Add $40 Million for Sugar/Rose due to rotation....that is $3 Million to $32 Million so we are at $35 Million


SEC

*Add about $3 Million for increase Conf Network (they only got about 8 months revenue out of last years figure) and increase in TV network (like SEC, increasing TV revenue over years)....that puts SEC at about $38 Million

*Similar for B1G above...increase TV contract (biggest increase of any conf).....so approx. at $38 Million (many of hinted at $40 Million).


So ROUGLY, my estimate has ACC next year at around $26 Million to SEC/B1G at $38 Million......or $12 Million revenue gap to this years $6 Million revenue gap.

Not that it matters greatly in the scheme of things, but the ACC's NCAA shares for basketball, and other NCAA related funding is on a steep upward curve to the tune of at least a million a year. The OB actually pays less than you have calculated, although not by much. Anyway, I get closer to $27.8 million, of which the majority of that is NCAA revenue. The SEC's NCAA revenue is in a bit of a retreat, and the B10's is relatively stable. But, if it's a $10 million annual difference or a $12 million annual difference, it is what it is.

As I have said before 82.5% to 85% of the B10/SEC average is the sweet spot for the ACC. So if they are at $38 M, the best we can get is $31 to $32 M.

There is no way to bridge this gap given the huge difference in size between the average B10 Alumni and Student base and the rabid intensity of SEC football fans. It will take another 20-30 years of demographic change to allow the ACC to catch the B10.

(05-28-2016 05:00 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

5
and duke?

FYI

Duke has 17 conference football championships dating back to 1933. Green I think you misread Hall.

IIRC Miami has 7 conference football championships.

Duke's last was in 89, Miami's last in 2003. Duke last played a game for a conference title in 2013, Miami, again in 2003.

To be fair, Miami spent most of its athletic years as a fb indy, and has only been part of a conference for maybe 25 years. Winning 7 conference championships out of twenty five is pretty dog gone good by any measurement.

(05-28-2016 05:00 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

5
and duke?

FYI

Duke has 17 conference football championships dating back to 1933. Green I think you misread Hall.

IIRC Miami has 7 conference football championships.

Duke's last was in 89, Miami's last in 2003. Duke last played a game for a conference title in 2013, Miami, again in 2003.

I didn't misread ...
it's national championship or bust ...
we use conference trophies for door stoppers ...

EYE ON THE PRIZE

(05-28-2016 06:10 PM)green Wrote:  I didn't misread ...
it's national championship or bust ...
we use conference trophies for door stoppers ...

EYE ON THE PRIZE

The doors must be swinging in the wind by now in Coral Gables.

I have to credit Miami...it is about national titles and they do that well.

(05-28-2016 05:38 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 05:07 PM)nole Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 03:53 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:47 PM)nole Wrote:  Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.

Please explain how you get a $10MM-$15MM revenue cap figure. No debating your number - you obviously put some thought into it - just not sure how you get there.

OK, I'll give it a rough shot:

This year:

SEC and B1G approx. $32 Million

ACC approx. $26 Million

Approx $6 Million revenue gap


Next year, the ACC won't get:

*$31 Million Maryland Payout. So subtract a bit over $2 Million from the ACC's $26 million payout....$24 million.

*Due to rotation, no Orange bowl payoff next year...$28 Million, so remove $2 million from ACC $24 million payout...$22 Million.

*Add $4 Million to ACC payout for ACC Network (or $45 Million rumored payout) and TV bump (contract amount grows each year...just est)....so back up to $26 Million.

*IF ACC gets a Conf Network and it's a deal where ACC has to front money, the payout could take a big hit until investment is done and revenue starts to kick in (if there is much revenue there)


SEC/B1G

*Add $40 Million for Sugar/Rose due to rotation....that is $3 Million to $32 Million so we are at $35 Million


SEC

*Add about $3 Million for increase Conf Network (they only got about 8 months revenue out of last years figure) and increase in TV network (like SEC, increasing TV revenue over years)....that puts SEC at about $38 Million

*Similar for B1G above...increase TV contract (biggest increase of any conf).....so approx. at $38 Million (many of hinted at $40 Million).


So ROUGLY, my estimate has ACC next year at around $26 Million to SEC/B1G at $38 Million......or $12 Million revenue gap to this years $6 Million revenue gap.

Not that it matters greatly in the scheme of things, but the ACC's NCAA shares for basketball, and other NCAA related funding is on a steep upward curve to the tune of at least a million a year. The OB actually pays less than you have calculated, although not by much. Anyway, I get closer to $27.8 million, of which the majority of that is NCAA revenue. The SEC's NCAA revenue is in a bit of a retreat, and the B10's is relatively stable. But, if it's a $10 million annual difference or a $12 million annual difference, it is what it is.

As I have said before 82.5% to 85% of the B10/SEC average is the sweet spot for the ACC. So if they are at $38 M, the best we can get is $31 to $32 M.

There is no way to bridge this gap given the huge difference in size between the average B10 Alumni and Student base and the rabid intensity of SEC football fans. It will take another 20-30 years of demographic change to allow the ACC to catch the B10.

Don't disagree with any of that.

But once we go south of say the 80-85% mark. The issues become real and change will happen, no matter the reasons for ACC revenue limits.

(05-28-2016 05:07 PM)nole Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 03:53 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:47 PM)nole Wrote:  Next year will be truly telling. No Orange bowl $$ or Maryland money along with maturing SEC network and huge B1G TV contracts...plus increased P2 Bowl revenue, the revenue cap will like be in the $10-$15 million range next year.

Please explain how you get a $10MM-$15MM revenue cap figure. No debating your number - you obviously put some thought into it - just not sure how you get there.

OK, I'll give it a rough shot:

This year:

SEC and B1G approx. $32 Million

ACC approx. $26 Million

Approx $6 Million revenue gap


Next year, the ACC won't get:

*$31 Million Maryland Payout. So subtract a bit over $2 Million from the ACC's $26 million payout....$24 million.

*Due to rotation, no Orange bowl payoff next year...$28 Million, so remove $2 million from ACC $24 million payout...$22 Million.

*Add $4 Million to ACC payout for ACC Network (or $45 Million rumored payout) and TV bump (contract amount grows each year...just est)....so back up to $26 Million.

*IF ACC gets a Conf Network and it's a deal where ACC has to front money, the payout could take a big hit until investment is done and revenue starts to kick in (if there is much revenue there)


SEC/B1G

*Add $40 Million for Sugar/Rose due to rotation....that is $3 Million to $32 Million so we are at $35 Million


SEC

*Add about $3 Million for increase Conf Network (they only got about 8 months revenue out of last years figure) and increase in TV network (like SEC, increasing TV revenue over years)....that puts SEC at about $38 Million

*Similar for B1G above...increase TV contract (biggest increase of any conf).....so approx. at $38 Million (many of hinted at $40 Million).


So ROUGLY, my estimate has ACC next year at around $26 Million to SEC/B1G at $38 Million......or $12 Million revenue gap to this years $6 Million revenue gap.

Thanks, Nole. I was thinking you meant gap when writing cap but was unsure due to the final statement, which sounded like the ACC was capped at $10-$15MM. You usually have a good thought, whether I agree or not, the error was a simple typo. I knew you weren't going nuts thinking that the ACC was dropping to the $10-$15MM range. I probably should have asked you to clarify cap or gap.

Regarding the Orange Bowl, doesn't the ACC get a different slot in either the Peach or Fiesta if not selected for the playoffs? Also, the ACC could get another team in another New Year's Day bowl game. There should be some offset, whether the full amount is recouped or not. I am bullish on getting a team into the playoffs (FSU, Clemson).

Regarding the Maryland money, I thought the ACC was holding it in reserve for potential buy-in or rights purchasing or other network costs/fees.

All in all, $10MM is peanuts in the grand scheme of things. For the money differences, UT is raking in money and cannot seem to buy anything with the dough. Would anyone bet on UT taking down FSU, Clemson, tOSU, OU? All of whom should be competing for the title. Throw in the many other teams that should be better than UT and compare what they bring in to Texas haul. tOSU is the only one in the ball park, even they are not getting their money's worth (you can lump most of teh B1G into that category!).

(05-28-2016 05:57 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 05:00 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 02:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(05-28-2016 01:57 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  How many ACC football championships is it that Miami has won? I've forgotten.

5
and duke?

FYI

Duke has 17 conference football championships dating back to 1933. Green I think you misread Hall.

IIRC Miami has 7 conference football championships.

Duke's last was in 89, Miami's last in 2003. Duke last played a game for a conference title in 2013, Miami, again in 2003.

To be fair, Miami spent most of its athletic years as a fb indy, and has only been part of a conference for maybe 25 years. Winning 7 conference championships out of twenty five is pretty dog gone good by any measurement.

To be fair Duke deemphasized football in 1962 after winning 15 conference titles in 30 years and appearing in all of the major bowl games. Duke has been more relevant in the last several years than Miami - to be fair.