omniorange
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RE: B1G Reups With ESPN -- ACC Network Announcement Coming?
First I apologize for being a drag, summer college sports talk tend to be that way, especially when one doesn't have a college baseball team to follow or one that is still alive in the CWS.
(06-20-2016 11:45 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote: (06-20-2016 11:06 PM)omniorange Wrote: (06-20-2016 09:59 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (06-20-2016 08:53 AM)uofl05 Wrote: So is the ESPN deal about what we expected? Or did the B1G come out better than expected for this half?
($240M Fox + $190M ESPN + $10M CBS) / (14 teams + 1 B1G) = $440M/15 = $29.3M/team
(06-20-2016 08:58 PM)uofl05 Wrote: Omni I am very surprised you seem so convinced ACC teams will consider bolting. I think with the network, and the face of media rights changing, no one knows what will happen a decade from now. But I'm pretty convinced that unless Clemson or FSU somehow get SEC invites, the ACC is going to remain strong. No way I see the core of the ACC leaving for the B1G unless all hell breaks loose, and I don't see that happening.
I believe I am trying to look at the numbers objectively:
29.3M per team for the new national TV contract
between 8M-12M per team for the BTN dependent upon how cord-cutting impacts
$6.5M per team for CFP and Bowl revenue
$3.9M per team from the NCAA various funds
Even using the lower amount for the BTN, that is still just under $48M per team from the conference.
The ACC is likely going to struggle to get to $33-35M per team with an ACCN.
Now add in the SEC who probably isn't too please that the B1G created a gap between them with this new deal. Where will they likely turn to try and decrease the gap?
Cheers,
Neil
Neil, the "gap" is in the football stadiums. The TV money gap is a drop in the bucket compared to the gap that exists between an ACC sized stadium and a Big 10 sized stadium.
Just for the record, I've had this as a talking point for several years now as any search of my posts on these boards will attest. So I realize that ticket sales and donors are far more important than conference monies. But perception wise, it's conference monies that is out there front and center, whether one wishes to acknowledge that fact or not. And today's news regarding the new B1G national TV contract not only in terms of $$$ but in terms of length I think should bring that home loud and clear.
Quote:The upper half of the B10 have an average football stadium size of 91,000. The upper half of the ACC has an average football stadium size of 67K. That's an average differential at the top half of 24,000 seats. The top 3 in the Big 10 average 107,000, while the top 3 in the ACC average 78,000, a differential of 29,000 seats. The average difference just in football stadium size creates a financial differential of $17-20 million annually - minimum. FSU and Clemson skew the ACC average upward.
Which is precisely why certain schools might look favorably upon exiting the ACC for either the SEC or the B1G. Kyle Field expanded from 87Kplus first to 103K and now to 106K. FSU and Clemson would both likely expand from their current capacity just to accommodate the increase number of visiting fans expected, not to mention an excited home fan base for better games were they to go to the SEC East.
Quote:There are five possible schools that the B10 could add from the ACC that are not already in their footprint, are top 100 research universities, and have a football stadium that has over 50K - that's UVa, UNC, GT, VT, and NC State. VT seats 67K and GT seats 55K. UNC seats 63K, UVa seats 65K, and NC State seats 58K. Moving from the ACC to the B10 might mean more income, but much higher costs as the competition will have football stadiums that seat almost 30,000 more than the ACC top three average.
Again, a factor that is being overlooked that having either SEC East division or B1G East division teams visiting would likely excite the fan bases and result in stadium expansion to meet both the possible increase of their own fan base as well as the possible increase in visiting fans. Obviously this may not happen in every case or not as huge an increase when comparing one case vs another - Texas A&M vs Mizzou perhaps, but then the Tigers got placed in the East division rather than the more geographically friendly (for them) West division.
Quote:The business of thinking extra revenue is net profit without checking out the costs is crazy. There are costs and they are huge. UVa, UNC, NC State, and VT have run those numbers and to continue to compete at their current level of success in the B10, UVa and UNC independently arrived at needing an extra $50 million a year in revenue. That figure is at least $35 million in the SEC.
It's like an offer of a new job in Manhattan. It's a 250K raise, but a 300K increase in annual expenses.
The costs vs revenue numbers presented above seem off to me considering what we just saw Texas A&M do while only getting an $8-10M in additional conference monies. And yes, I still realize that conference monies are only a small percentage of an institution's total revenue but here are the reported revenues for the 2011-12 year, their last year in the B12:
University of Louisville - $87,840,504
Florida State University - $81,444,039
University of Virginia - $81,321,219
Texas A & M University - $79,026,849
University of North Carolina - $78,830,350
Duke University - $78,604,895
Syracuse University - $73,287,687
Clemson University - $66,988,424
Boston College - $66,197,029
North Carolina State University - $65,507,243
Virginia Tech - $64,801,681
University of Miami - $62,099,601
Georgia Institute of Technology - $60,253,966
University of Pittsburgh - $56,338,449
Wake Forest University - $48,776,185
For full list from that year see the link below:
http://csnbbs.com/thread-612308.html
And here are the latest numbers from the OPE site for 2014-15 compiled by me tonight, so I apologize in advance if there are any errors:
Florida State - $121,319,469
Texas A&M - $110,004,867
Louisville - $104,325,208
Duke - $91,688,202
Syracuse - $87,175,761
Virginia - $87,059,237
North Carolina - $85,288,270
Virginia Tech - $81,298,133
Miami - $77,724,833
Clemson - $76,979,291
North Carolina State - $76,839,435
Pittsburgh - $70,527,488
Boston College - $69,300,736
Georgia Tech - $65,304,486
Wake Forest - $58,672,116
I am not seeing any downside to A&M joining the SEC and investing in their athletic programs and basically now seeing their typical record in the B12 of 8-5 considering their revenue side went up over $30 million. Unfortunately the link doesn't have the expenses from 2011-12 to do a better comparison with the 2014-15 expense numbers as well.
But even if the large expenses above are correct, which I doubt and the above data would appear to refute, what happens to those figures on both sides of the ledger should the SEC decide to take FSU?
Who honestly believes that the Noles would decline that invite? What happens if they accept? Could the ACC's better positioned programs be looking at a mass exodus similar to what happened with the B12? Thankfully for the B12, their two highest profile football schools (Texas and Oklahoma) remained rather than go to the PAC.
Will UNC and UVa be able to keep the ACC a power conference? In this scenario it is more than likely FSU may have regained their status as the best ACC expansion prize from conference network prizes of UNC and UVa under the new current paradigm where cable subscriptions are not the driver, but ratings for college football games are.
I don't have the definitive answers to these questions and I don't believe any one else does either - but I don't think we should assume everything will go on as business as usual simple because of a questionable cost/benefit analysis.
In the final analysis, I am not giving up hope the ACC will survive, but the new B1G contract was a wake up call as well as a reminder that the ultimate battle is between the B1G and the SEC.
Again, my apologies, for this thread turning into a downer.
Cheers,
Neil
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