(10-24-2016 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 10:14 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Baylor/WVU will be out. Despite that, they'd be looking at the SEC runner up, either Fla or Bama/A&M loser in the Sugar. Not a likely win for them. OSU/UM will get in with one loss (loser of that head to head will obviously be out regardless).

If Baylor and WVU are both 11-0 entering their final game, it's going to be really interesting with them.

Ohio St is kind of interesting. Especially if the Baylor/WVU winner has pulverized Oklahoma diminishing Ohio St's good OOC win. You would think Ohio St at 12-1 would get in over 12-0 WVU or Baylor- but it would be interesting to see the decision actually made.

WVU I think is the X factor. Their OOC is not great, but they played an SEC team and BYU, plus 9 conference games. That is 10 or 11 P5 caliber games, depending on who you ask. Baylor's OOC, even with SMU being better than expected, is just so turrrrrible, I am just not sure they can overcome it, even at 12-0, unless there is a two loss champion.

corbett,

Exactly, they can't. Which is why the Big 12 gets left out again. And that's what they deserve, for the circus.

But WVU can. If they win out, they will have played a decent schedule, which would include a top ten win over Baylor (presuming they win out or only lose one game prior to the WVU game), and a top 15-ish team in OU. Add in undefeated and B12 champ, and they would get in over any non-champ. Now. They may not hold up to the other five champs as they stand now, as currently each league has a potential undefeated champion, but if one of them drops a game...

I was not aware that they were playing the final weekend (Baylor/WVU). If that's the scenario, OSU will need double digit victories to leap past an undefeated Big 12. The Michigan game will be at the Horseshoe so OSU may need to beat them by a solid touchdown as well. Think about the 56-0 CCG against Wisconsin as the blueprint. It will not need to be as decisive, but they will need style points to an extent to leapfrog an undefeated WVU/Baylor into the final weekend.

But how often do we talk about 4-5 undefeated teams at the end of the year and end up with 1 or 3 tops (including a G5 school)?

Sorry, I meant Baylor can't. Yes, WV has the best shot.

RU,

The Michigan/OSU winner won't need to leapfrog anyone, going into the CCG. They'll be in the top 4 that week.

(10-24-2016 12:41 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I was not aware that they were playing the final weekend (Baylor/WVU). If that's the scenario, OSU will need double digit victories to leap past an undefeated Big 12. The Michigan game will be at the Horseshoe so they may need to beat them by a solid touchdown as well. Think about the 56-0 CCG against Wisconsin as the blueprint. It will not need to be as decisive, but they will need style points to an extent to leapfrog an undefeated WVU/Baylor into the final weekend.

But how often do we talk about 4-5 undefeated teams at the end of the year and end up with 1 or 3 tops (including a G5 school)?

The manner how teams win and lose can be a factor for sure. Also how teams on various teams' schedule do down the stretch can matter. Lots of variables in play.

If Baylor is the Big XII champion, and is on the bubble, I can't help but think that their off the field scandals could influence the selection committee. That is, if the committee can find a plausible reason for keeping them out, they may very well take it. I don't think they want those issues to become part of the story line for the playoffs.

It may not be fair to the current Baylor football team, but when was fairness the number one priority?

interesting thought:
Number of Power 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss on this date:
2014 - 18
2015 - 18
2016 - 12

Not quite time to say a team like a LSU or Wisconsin back yet- but it does give you pause. Pac 12 and Big 12 such a mess, that could easily put a 2 loss team in the playoff.

(10-24-2016 02:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Baylor is the Big XII champion, and is on the bubble, I can't help but think that their off the field scandals could influence the selection committee. That is, if the committee can find a plausible reason for keeping them out, they may very well take it. I don't think they want those issues to become part of the story line for the playoffs.

It may not be fair to the current Baylor football team, but when was fairness the number one priority?

I don't think it will sway the committee. In fact I suspect the committee will go out of their way to say it won't. That isn't in their charter and the sentiment will be not to punish the players for something others did.

I don't think Baylor will be in the conversation in the end though, so we may not find out.

(10-24-2016 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Baylor and WVU are both 11-0 entering their final game, it's going to be really interesting with them.

Too bad the Big 12 won't have that 13th data point.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Big 12 CCG next year. B12 execs have stated that they will try to avoid cross-divisional games near the end of the season, to avoid immediate rematches in the CCG. Which would mean that the Baylor-WVU winner would then have to face the 3rd or 4th place team in the CCG (which would still be a rematch).

Not sure how the divisions will align, but let's say the B12 has a CCG this year and the divisions were:

SOUTH: Baylor, WVU, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas
NORTH: Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, KSU, Iowa St.

Baylor v. WVU winner takes the SOUTH and Oklahoma v. OSU winner takes the NORTH. So, B12 title game is 12-0 Baylor/WVU v. 8-4 Oklahoma.

This just illustrates how silly the CCG is with a 10-team conference that has round-robin play. 8-4 Oklahoma could still win the conference championship, despite previously losing to both Baylor and WVU...OR...the 13th data will always be a rematch and could substantially lessen one of the champion's better wins. Oklahoma would be reduced to a mediocre win against an 8-5 team...twice. Once during the regular season and once in the CCG.

In other words, 13-0 WVU's best wins would be: 11-1 Baylor, 8-5 Oklahoma (x2), 8-4 Oklahoma St. That resume wouldn't be very competitive against the B1G, SEC, ACC, or PAC champions'.

(10-24-2016 02:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  interesting thought:
Number of Power 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss on this date:
2014 - 18
2015 - 18
2016 - 12

Not quite time to say a team like a LSU or Wisconsin back yet- but it does give you pause. Pac 12 and Big 12 such a mess, that could easily put a 2 loss team in the playoff.

Things have been relatively nice and tidy for the committee the last few years. Even two years ago, they were struggling with several good options and all teams coming off wins. One of these years there will be chaos with several CCG upsets where they have to choose between 2+ loss champs, and 1 or even perhaps 2 loss non champs.

(10-24-2016 02:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Baylor is the Big XII champion, and is on the bubble, I can't help but think that their off the field scandals could influence the selection committee. That is, if the committee can find a plausible reason for keeping them out, they may very well take it. I don't think they want those issues to become part of the story line for the playoffs.

It may not be fair to the current Baylor football team, but when was fairness the number one priority?

Baylor's remaining schedule:
@ Texas
TCU
@ Oklahoma
Kansas State
@ Texas Tech
@ West Virginia

I bet they lose at least 2 if not 3 games....4 road games against real competition

Baylor has fed on cupcakes so far...2 byes with a Kansas sandwich

(10-24-2016 02:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Baylor and WVU are both 11-0 entering their final game, it's going to be really interesting with them.

Too bad the Big 12 won't have that 13th data point.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Big 12 CCG next year. B12 execs have stated that they will try to avoid cross-divisional games near the end of the season, to avoid rematches in the CCG. Which would mean that the Baylor-WVU winner would then have to face the 3rd or 4th place team in the CCG (which would still be a rematch).

Not sure how the divisions will align, but let's say the B12 has a CCG this year and the divisions were:

SOUTH: Baylor, WVU, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas
NORTH: Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas, KSU, Iowa St.

Baylor v. WVU winner takes the SOUTH and Oklahoma v. OSU winner takes the NORTH. So, B12 title game is 12-0 Baylor/WVU v. 8-4 Oklahoma.

This just illustrates how silly the CCG is with a 10-team conference that has round-robin play. 8-4 Oklahoma could still win the conference championship, despite previously losing to both Baylor and WVU...OR...the 13th data will always be a rematch and could substantially lessen one of the champion's better wins. Oklahoma would be reduced to a mediocre win against an 8-5 team...twice. Once during the regular season and once in the CCG.

In other words, 13-0 WVU's best wins would be: 11-1 Baylor, 8-5 Oklahoma (x2), 8-4 Oklahoma St. That resume wouldn't be very competitive against the B1G, SEC, ACC, or PAC champions'.

They won't do this because of scheduling needs (e.g. UT-OU in opposite divisions early in year), but I've seen high school systems have divisions that change every year. First, you take the last 2 years and average team strength somehow. Then you rank the teams from 1 to whatever. Then you snake draft it. So with 10 teams you would rank the teams from 1-10 based on past two year's results. One division has teams 1, 4, 5, 8, 9. The other has 2, 3, 6, 7, 10. So for this year it might have been (based on records last 2 years)

TCU, OSU, WVU, UT, ISU
OU, Baylor, KSU, TT, KU

Obviously TCU is down this year relative to last 2 and WVU is up. But all configs are going to have stuff like that. Won't happen, but it is one way.

(10-24-2016 02:38 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 02:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  interesting thought:
Number of Power 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss on this date:
2014 - 18
2015 - 18
2016 - 12

Not quite time to say a team like a LSU or Wisconsin back yet- but it does give you pause. Pac 12 and Big 12 such a mess, that could easily put a 2 loss team in the playoff.

Things have been relatively nice and tidy for the committee the last few years. Even two years ago, they were struggling with several good options and all teams coming off wins. One of these years there will be chaos with several CCG upsets where they have to choose between 2+ loss champs, and 1 or even perhaps 2 loss non champs.

In 2007, there were 7 losses in November by the teams ranked #1 or 2 at the start of the game. The #1 and 2 teams lost Thanksgiving weekend, and the new #1 and 2 teams lost the following weekend. Ohio State lost on November 10, LSU lost on November 23; both teams ended up in the BCS title game (won by LSU) because there were so many other upsets in the last month of the regular season. Every BCS conference champ except Ohio State had at least 2 losses before the bowls.

(10-24-2016 11:37 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:34 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  WV/Baylor don't control their own fate. I guess you can pretend they do.

Shall we keep going? Or agree to disagree?

I think most likely it's a moot issue...Oklahoma will most likely win the conference, and I think Ohio State is going to have to do their best to not drop another game or two

still a lot of football to be played

What happens when Clemson loses this weekend?

People are looking at West Virginia/Baylor as the de facto championship game in the Big XII. Don't look now, but both those schools still have to play Oklahoma. And if Oklahoma State were to get past West Virginia this week, that could set up a season ending showdown with the Sooners on the last day of the season, with Baylor still able to force a three way tie. If OK State and Baylor win on December 3, and there is a three way tie, nobody has a head to head advantage in that scenario. Each of the three would have lost only to each other.

(10-24-2016 03:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:37 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:34 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  WV/Baylor don't control their own fate. I guess you can pretend they do.

Shall we keep going? Or agree to disagree?

I think most likely it's a moot issue...Oklahoma will most likely win the conference, and I think Ohio State is going to have to do their best to not drop another game or two

still a lot of football to be played

What happens when Clemson loses this weekend?

People are looking at West Virginia/Baylor as the de facto championship game in the Big XII. Don't look now, but both those schools still have to play Oklahoma. And if Oklahoma State were to get past West Virginia this week, that could set up a season ending showdown with the Sooners on the last day of the season, with Baylor still able to force a three way tie. If OK State and Baylor win on December 3, and there is a three way tie, nobody has a head to head advantage in that scenario. Each of the three would have lost only to each other.

There is a possibility that
All 4 teams (OSU, WVU, Baylor, & them "Gooners")
Could b in a 4 way tie for 1st place
B4 they meet on Sat 12/3

OSU runs the table, beat's WVU this week
OU only looses 2 either Baylor or WVU
Baylor only looses 2 WVU or OU

Then u would essential have 2 games
for a "tie" 4 the Big 12 championship
the winner of
WVU vs. Baylor
& the Bedlam winner (OSt vs the "Paperclip")

(10-24-2016 10:58 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  No - a one-loss Big Ten team gets in over an undefeated Baylor or WV. Sorry, that's just life.

You have any precedent for something like that?