Questions soon to be answered:

- President
--- Who wins?
--- Was polling consistently undervaluing Trump?
--- Will Hillary be able to turn out the black vote like Obama did?
--- Will Gary Johnson get 5% nationally?
--- Will Gary Johnson and/or Evan McMullin finish second anywhere?

- US Senate
--- Who controls the Senate?

- US House
--- How big is the Republican majority now?

- Propositions
--- Will California mandate condom use in all porn, effectively chasing the entire adult entertainment industry out of LA and into Vegas and Miami?
--- Will California, Nevada, Arizona, Maine, and/or Massachusetts legalize recreational cannabis?
--- Will Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas, and/or Florida legalize medical cannabis?
--- Will Maine change to Instant Runoff Voting?
--- Will Washington, Colorado, Arizona, and/or Maine increase the minimum wage?
--- Will South Dakota LOWER minimum wage for youth? (Holy ****, a minimum wage ballot measure that isn't rooted in fantasy land)
--- Will California, Nebaska, and/or Oklahoma keep the death penalty?
--- Will Colorado legalize medically assisted suicide?

Last night's tally

(11-07-2016 04:11 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  Last night's tally

Trump wins VA an NM too.

A guy can dream, can't he?









FWIW I'll be watching Pennsylvania. If Hillary has trouble winning PA, it bodes well for Trump picking off some of the rust belt he'll need to win. If Hillary loses PA ... she's finished. If Trump loses PA easily, he's finished.

I predict Clinton wins big electorally but with less of a popular vote margin.

We will know the electoral outcome pretty early in the evening, around 7pm EST.

The media will spin this as a big victory for women.

Trump will not go quietly into the night, but in the end he will retreat and no longer be a factor in American politics.

Republicans hold the House and Senate.

Paul Ryan hears the Trumpian message and works to position himself for the 2020 Presidential bid.

The USA is effectively split into two camps: Coastal Urban Progressives and Fly-Over Rural Moderates/Conservatives. Neither side is remotely interested in working with the other for fear of being seen as weak within their own party, and purged accordingly.

(11-07-2016 04:16 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  A guy can dream, can't he?









FWIW I'll be watching Pennsylvania. If Hillary has trouble winning PA, it bodes well for Trump picking off some of the rust belt he'll need to win. If Hillary loses PA ... she's finished. If Trump loses PA easily, he's finished.

Hopefully, my state decides not to blow it like they did not electing Governor Wolf.

House - 100% remains republican control

Senate - Dems pick up a net of one seat

President - We may not know until late November

(11-07-2016 04:28 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  The USA is effectively split into two camps: Coastal Urban Progressives and Fly-Over Rural Moderates/Conservatives. Neither side is remotely interested in working with the other for fear of being seen as weak within their own party, and purged accordingly.

I think it's even more hopelessly divided than that. Give me a few minutes to ruminate and I'll spew my totally baseless conjecture on that.

Maybe this is finally the end of the 2 party system.

You could see Trump take his faction and break from the traditional republicans.

You could see Bernie and his faction break from the traditional democrats.

You also have the guys in the middle that could break away from both entirely and go start their own thing.

(11-07-2016 04:30 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 04:28 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  The USA is effectively split into two camps: Coastal Urban Progressives and Fly-Over Rural Moderates/Conservatives. Neither side is remotely interested in working with the other for fear of being seen as weak within their own party, and purged accordingly.

I think it's even more hopelessly divided than that. Give me a few minutes to ruminate and I'll spew my totally baseless conjecture on that.

Informed Pragmatists: 2.5%
People with the free time and masochistic bent to be well informed politically and select the best available option, even at the local level.

Ideologues: 2.5%
People driven in their voting and positions by ideology. This could also take a philosophic or principled bent. You'll find your regular third party voters here, as well as the kind of people who stock the halls of think tanks.

Democrat Kool Aid Drinkers: 5%
These are people that will vote Democrat no matter what. The Ivory Tower. Hollywood. Minority special interests. Etc. The kind of people who are happy with, for example, Hillary Clinton or John Kerry. These people are a political rock and going nowhere.

Republican Kool Aid Drinkers: 5%
These are people that will vote Republican no matter what. The religious right. Total war hawks. Single issue abortion voters. Etc. The kind of people who are happy with, for example, Dubya or McCain. These people are a political rock and going nowhere.

Democrat or Republican Ignorants: 10%
These are people who hold blatantly contradicting views and do whatever mental gymnastics is necessary to keep that duality alive. "I'm unskilled labor and unemployed. Let's raise the minimum wage!" "You keep the government out of my healthcare, but I better keep my medicaid!" These are morons who rarely stray from the reservation. Most political advertising is targeted at the "moderate" slice of this portion of the electorate. Because it takes a special kind of stupid to not only hold contradictory views, but be unable to decide between two fairly radically different camps. A special kind of stupid that is open to being swayed by advertising.

Rent Seekers: 10%
People utterly and totally beholden to government who will do whatever is necessary to keep the money coming. Don't be fooled into thinking this is all welfare queens. There's a ton of contractors, NGOs, grant receivers, etc in here. For every single mother of 12 kids melting an EBT card, there's 12 Raytheon senior managers.

Working Stiffs: 20%
People clocking in 9 to 5 and living paycheck to paycheck who don't have time for any of this crap because they need to give full effort every week to keep the family fed and healthy. They don't know what's going on for the most part, they just know that they're all a buncha crooks.

The Silent Plurality: 45%
Non-voters. A wide disparate collection of parts almost defying categorization. Disillusioned ideologues. Pragmatists who did the math on the impact of their own vote. People who just don't care. People who realize they have no impact. People who don't see any options they can get behind. Etc.

(11-07-2016 04:35 PM)muffinman Wrote:  Maybe this is finally the end of the 2 party system.

You could see Trump take his faction and break from the traditional republicans.

You could see Bernie and his faction break from the traditional democrats.

You also have the guys in the middle that could break away from both entirely and go start their own thing.

The problem within the GOP is the values voters. The problem within the Democrats is the people who have never seen an economics textbook.

Trump doesn't represent the values voters wing of the GOP. If anything, Trump sounds an awful lot like Pat Buchanan 2.0.

Bernie does represent the cancer of the Democrat Party, but we've already seen all it takes to placate him is a private jet. He's staying in the fold.

I think Hillary wins and I think there are going to be some surprising results that have millions of people asking if the results got tinkered with.

Figured I woulda got more flack for something I blatantly pulled outta my arse. But maybe I was more accurate than I imagined.

I predict a close race. Clinton might eke it out but it may not be decided until Wednesday or Thursday. In either case, the stock market crashes big time the rest of the week (it had a good day today).

Most of the people here accept the outcome. Trump does not.

Republicans retain control of the House and Senate.

Whomever wins will have a terrible four years and will be the first incumbent since LBJ not to seek re-election. And I hope (and pray) we have better candidates to pick from in 2020 (when my oldest daughter gets to vote for a president for the first time).

Clinton wins with 279-300 electoral votes, +3 popular.

The actual results will reflect the poll averages.

Nate Silver's forecast will be about right.

The Senate will be 49-51 Republican.

The NC governor will be the Democrat, Cooper.

Trump will rant and rage for a couple of weeks but will eventually shut up when he realizes he has damaged his brand.

The two parties will continue without major changes, but typical minor adjustments.

The Stock Market will finish the year strong.

The Republicans will threaten all kinds of hearings and investigations but then realize they are damaging their brand they stop.

(11-07-2016 07:26 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  And I hope (and pray) we have better candidates to pick from in 2020 (when my oldest daughter gets to vote for a president for the first time).

At the clip we're going, you better hope that in her lifetime the country is still the same geographic land mass with the same capital. The fuse on the welfare debt bomb is growing shorter, and nobody who has a shot to win the Presidency this cycle (or even thus far the next) will do anything about it. The only two candidates willing to even TALK about it this cycle lost handily and early (Rand Paul, Chris Christie).

Trump or Clinton's antics only really threaten us with gridlock. Entitlements threaten the very foundations, bedrock, economy, and day to day livelihood of MOST of the country. It is over HALF of the ENTIRE BUDGET and as boomers retire it will swamp and take over the rest of the budget. That is a threat way bigger than gridlock ... that is the single greatest domestic challenge to ever face the country.

#StandWithRand2020

(11-07-2016 07:34 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 07:26 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  And I hope (and pray) we have better candidates to pick from in 2020 (when my oldest daughter gets to vote for a president for the first time).

At the clip we're going, you better hope that in her lifetime the country is still the same geographic land mass with the same capital. The fuse on the welfare debt bomb is growing shorter, and nobody who has a shot to win the Presidency this cycle (or even thus far the next) will do anything about it. The only two candidates willing to even TALK about it this cycle lost handily and early (Rand Paul, Chris Christie).

Trump or Clinton's antics only really threaten us with gridlock. Entitlements threaten the very foundations, bedrock, economy, and day to day livelihood of MOST of the country. It is over HALF of the ENTIRE BUDGET and as boomers retire it will swamp and take over the rest of the budget. That is a threat way bigger than gridlock ... that is the single greatest domestic challenge to ever face the country.

If you are talking about social security, W. tried to do something about it. Democrats demagogued it to death. Obama denies there is even a problem. Nobody even talks about medicare which is worse-and Obamacare has made it even more of a problem.

I have a feeling that Trump will flip one blue state, possibly two

(11-07-2016 04:51 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 04:35 PM)muffinman Wrote:  Maybe this is finally the end of the 2 party system.

You could see Trump take his faction and break from the traditional republicans.

You could see Bernie and his faction break from the traditional democrats.

You also have the guys in the middle that could break away from both entirely and go start their own thing.

I don't think the values voters are a "problem." Cut off your nose to spite your face conservatives are the problem. The Pat Buchanan voters. Many of the Cruz voters. William Kristol. If you don't get your way 100% you take your ball and go home. Those people gave us Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

The problem within the GOP is the values voters. The problem within the Democrats is the people who have never seen an economics textbook.

Trump doesn't represent the values voters wing of the GOP. If anything, Trump sounds an awful lot like Pat Buchanan 2.0.

Bernie does represent the cancer of the Democrat Party, but we've already seen all it takes to placate him is a private jet. He's staying in the fold.