New alternate history scenario! The earliest differences from our timeline are the Big Ten's rejection of Penn State for membership in 1990 and Notre Dame's TV deal not panning out. This leads the Irish to join the Big Ten, while Penn State creates a new eastern conference that prevents the addition of football to the Big East.
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- Big Ten rejects Penn State; accepts Notre Dame
- Penn State founds Eastern Athletic Conference (EAC) with 11 other football independents, including 3 football-only affiliates from Big East (BC, Pitt, Syracuse)
- SEC adds Arkansas from SWC and independent South Carolina
- Colorado accepts Pac-10 invite; BYU added to Pac-10 as football-only affiliate (non-football remains in WAC); Pac-10 becomes Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC)
- Big 12 forms as in OTL except without Colorado; Houston is added to make 12
- SWC left with only 3 members (Rice, SMU, TCU); adds La Tech from Big West, Tulsa from MVC, I-AA indy UAB, and 4 I-A indies (ECU, Memphis, Tulane, USM), but conference is effectively no longer a power
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I-A 1996 (* = football-only affiliate)
ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Big 12
Central: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Plains: Baylor, Houston, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Protected crossover: Texas/Oklahoma
Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
EAC
North: Boston College*, Penn State, Pittsburgh*, Rutgers, Syracuse*, Temple
South: Cincinnati, Florida State, Louisville, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Protected crossover: Pittsburgh/West Virginia
PAC
North: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU*, Colorado, UCLA, USC
Protected crossovers: California/UCLA, California/USC, Stanford/UCLA, Stanford/USC
SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Protected crossovers: same as in OTL
Big West: Arkansas State, Boise State, Idaho, NE Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Texas, Northern Illinois, SW Louisiana, Utah State
MAC: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
SWC: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Rice, SMU, Southern Miss, TCU, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB
WAC: Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming
Ind: Army, Navy
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- MAC adds NIU from Big West and Marshall from I-AA SoCon to reach 12 schools
- SWC adds independents UCF and USF to reach 12 schools
- WAC adds Boise State from Big West to reach 12 football schools
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I-A 2010
Power conferences same as in 1996
Big West: Arkansas State, Idaho, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Texas, Utah State
MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
SWC
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulane, Tulsa
WAC
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming
Pacific: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV
Ind: Army, Connecticut, Navy
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- Oklahoma and Oklahoma State leave Big 12 for SEC
- Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech leave Big 12 for PAC
- Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri leave Big 12 for Big Ten
- SEC adds NC State from ACC and West Virginia from EAC
- Pittsburgh and Syracuse leave EAC/Big East to join Big Ten; Big Ten becomes Big 16
- UConn leaves Big East and football independence to join EAC as full member; BC transfers non-football sports from Big East to EAC to become full member
- Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Maryland leave ACC for EAC
- With no other desirable options, Duke, UNC, and UVA also accept EAC's invite; ACC dissolves, leaving WF floating in the wind
- Big 12 left with only 3 members (Baylor, ISU, KSU); adds WF from defunct ACC and 8 others from SWC (ECU, Memphis, SMU, TCU, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, USF), but conference is effectively no longer a power
- SWC left with only 4 members (La Tech, Rice, UAB, USM); adds 8 schools from Big West (Arkansas State, Idaho, Nevada, NMSU, ULL, ULM, UNT, USU); with no remaining football schools, Big West drops the sport
- Army and Navy football programs drop down to I-AA Patriot
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I-A 2014 (* = football-only affiliate)
Big 16
East: Indiana, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
North: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Protected crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Indiana/Purdue, Michigan/Ohio State, Notre Dame/Pittsburgh
EAC
East: Maryland, Temple, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North: Boston College, Connecticut, Penn State, Rutgers
South: Duke, Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville
Protected crossovers: North Carolina/Virginia, Penn State/Temple
PAC
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU*, Colorado
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia
Big 12
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, SMU, TCU, Tulsa
MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
SWC
East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, Utah State
WAC
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming
Pacific: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV
Notable annual out-of-conference matchups: Air Force/Army, Air Force/Navy, BYU/Utah, Cincinnati/Ohio State, Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Duke/Wake Forest, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Iowa/Iowa State, Kansas/Kansas State, Kentucky/Louisville, NC State/North Carolina, Notre Dame/Navy, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas, Penn State/Pittsburgh
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Copy-pasta:
Each of the 16-team power conferences consists of four 4-team "pods," which alternate between two 8-team divisions every two years. For two years it's the "Northeast" and "Southwest" Divisions, and for the next two it's the "Northwest" and "Southeast" Divisions.
The P4 conference schedule is 9 games across the board. For two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod, the 4 other teams in its division, and 2 teams from the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). For the next two years, each team plays a home-and-home against the 3 teams in its pod again, the 4 other teams in its division (this time it's a different pod of 4), and the other 2 teams from the opposite pod. This way, with the exception of protected crossovers, each team plays every other team in its conference twice in 4 years. The G4 conference schedules are all 8 games to permit more play of P4 teams.
Conference championships proceed between the two divisions as they do currently. The "College Football Playoff," or whatever it may be called in this timeline, becomes a de facto (if not de jure) competition between the champions of the P4 conferences, with the G4 conferences getting their hush money.
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You may note that, like the previous scenarios I put forth, this timeline ends with a 4x16 power conference alignment. This alignment, or at least having an even and equal number of teams in each conference, is a common theme in many scenarios I've come up with. I see this balance as the pinnacle of college football realignment.
So what do you think? Plausible?