(09-08-2017 09:52 AM)orangefan Wrote: My two take aways from the article were 1) they've made some doubtful coaching hires, but are just a good coaching hire away from returning to the top echelon (duh), and 2) the success of conference television packages has increased everybody else's revenue and exposure so that ND is less unique.
I would observe that ND's biggest "problem," though, may be that its Catholic high school pipeline is no longer as strong as it once was, both because of the weakening of the strength of the church and the overall demographic shift in the major sources of talent away from the Midwest to Florida and Texas.
Your (2) is definitely true. But as to (1) I don't think so. Notre Dame of the 30's through the 50's was a school that many Catholic boys graduating High School felt compelled to attend. As those sons and grandsons and great-grandsons of Catholic immigrant families slowly lost their devotion to the faith of their fathers and in many cases lost their connection to faith at all, the lure of Notre Dame faded. One aspect that had made it great during the "church era" was that they truly could recruit nationally when virtually all of the rest of the schools (Ohio State and Alabama included) stayed very local and their regional influence had not yet grown vis a vis television's coverage of everything and conference expansion.
By the 80's if N.D. had any religious allure to it at all it certainly began to die with the abuse scandals. Today N.D. is remembered fondly by those of us at least past 50, if not past 60. It is, as the article points out, wholly irrelevant to the youth of today. I don't like the style of Coach Kelly but he has certainly won at a much higher percentage everywhere but Notre Dame. I'm not sold that the problem is his.
Also, N.D. has clung to independence for a reason. And a large part of that reason is recruiting. They know that if they confined most of their games to a particular region and thereby limited their exposure in the West, or Southeast, or any region to which their conference home was somewhat remote, that their ability to compete would be severely impaired. Hence we get games like ND/UGA for recognition in a state which is a recruiting hotbed. USC has long given them access to key recruits and has helped to build a true national presence, and to then keep it in the "post church era".
What they don't want to do is to be confined to a region and to have to compete against much better endowed athletic departments for mostly just the recruits from that area. Part of their disdain for the Big 10 has been rooted in historical slights and so we now have anecdotal stories of the animosity arising from them. But a goodly portion of that disdain is that they don't want to become Indiana's third major school along with Purdue and Indiana. It was great PR to be The Catholic University, and now that such a distinction no longer carries the same advantages they get to be the most prominent Independent University. If they lose that they are just another school in whichever conference they join. Right now they are still visible throughout the nation. If they join a conference they get tagged to particular region.
The fulcrum to their joining a conference will be athletic success. If they can't return to prominence and if the independent route becomes financially disadvantaged because of it, then they might have a difficult choice to make. Compounding that dilemma could be the eventual emergence of four power conferences the champions of which play for the title. All of these issues converging probably will lead to N.D. joining somewhere in full.
If it comes to that they will look for 3 likely criteria in making their commitment. 1. Academic Prestige: They are foremost a University and associations that enhance that mission will be essential. 2. Ease of access to the conference championship round in sports from a division that is essential to the schools student recruitment. The Northeast is the most likely site. Only the Big 10 and ACC offer access to such a potential division. 3. In the "post church era" revenue, particularly for private universities, will be paramount.
Since the Big 10 and ACC both offer the first two, it could come down to the third. So between now and 2030 (before such considerations could contractually start to be considered) the ACC member schools should be trying to reach out more demonstratively to embrace and include Notre Dame wherever academically possible. Their fit is more natural with the ACC, but the money is a lot better in the Big 10. Your present arrangement is like an engagement. You are socially contracted to be betrothed but no marriage date is set. You better keep wooing her, getting to know her, and making yourself attractive to her, because in 13 to 16 years, a blink of the eye in conference time, she could break the engagement.