(10-06-2017 02:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-06-2017 07:35 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(10-05-2017 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The germane angle here Wedge is that if Louisville's post season is curtailed for a couple of years and if UNC's should wind up curtailed for a couple of years it could very well affect the valuation of the games broadcast. I could see why a network may wish to finagle a better deal.

If it's a post-season ban then why would it effect the ACC contract? Postseason games are not part of our media rights contract as those are controlled by either the NCAA or in football the bowls themselves.

Because without the possibility of a post season appearance schools on probation generally see a lag in their overall ratings during the regular season. People don't like to watch because it reminds them of their dilemma. And because without the possibility of postseason play the regular season games mean even less.

But that's what a thread is for. Those who want to play ostrich can bury their heads in the sand and pretend it won't affect anything and those who experience schadenfreude can imagine the direst of consequences. Never mind that either position has nothing to do with business. Is the purchased product diminished? Usually the answer is yes. Will it be this time? Probably, as based on past history it is a reasonable assumption. Could the networks claim diminished value? Yes Will they claim diminished value? I think that depends on the sanctions. Like I stated previously the contractual aspect is germane. The networks could choose to overlook it, or they could use it to seek something else they want, or they could push for a reduced payout for the term of the sanctions. We'll see.

So we should expect SEC rights rate to drop with the pending Auburn & Ole Miss sanctions or is this asinine fantasy solely the domain of the ACC?

(10-06-2017 06:09 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(10-06-2017 02:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-06-2017 07:35 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(10-05-2017 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The germane angle here Wedge is that if Louisville's post season is curtailed for a couple of years and if UNC's should wind up curtailed for a couple of years it could very well affect the valuation of the games broadcast. I could see why a network may wish to finagle a better deal.

If it's a post-season ban then why would it effect the ACC contract? Postseason games are not part of our media rights contract as those are controlled by either the NCAA or in football the bowls themselves.

Because without the possibility of a post season appearance schools on probation generally see a lag in their overall ratings during the regular season. People don't like to watch because it reminds them of their dilemma. And because without the possibility of postseason play the regular season games mean even less.

But that's what a thread is for. Those who want to play ostrich can bury their heads in the sand and pretend it won't affect anything and those who experience schadenfreude can imagine the direst of consequences. Never mind that either position has nothing to do with business. Is the purchased product diminished? Usually the answer is yes. Will it be this time? Probably, as based on past history it is a reasonable assumption. Could the networks claim diminished value? Yes Will they claim diminished value? I think that depends on the sanctions. Like I stated previously the contractual aspect is germane. The networks could choose to overlook it, or they could use it to seek something else they want, or they could push for a reduced payout for the term of the sanctions. We'll see.

So we should expect SEC rights rate to drop with the pending Auburn & Ole Miss sanctions or is this asinine fantasy solely the domain of the ACC?

Yes you should as ratings drop every time it's happened. But's it's been a while so we weren't nearly as well paid then and the networks weren't doling out so much so it wasn't as big of a deal as it is now. So yes, it's always a possibility. That said Clemson, Florida State and Louisville have been toting the bacon for the ACC in football. If Louisville gets dinged in hoops and North Carolina does as well that's two hoops bell cows when it comes to ratings. Since basketball is about 20% of the total value any ding to the ACC would be in line 2/15ths of 20%. In all likelihood the networks will just seek some other minor concession. If it was football and say either F.S.U. or Clemson were also getting probation that could affect you more significantly. If Auburn and Ole Miss both get sanctions for hoops the SEC might lose 400 viewers. That's hardly worth the time to calculate.

What I got my giggles over is the nonsense of tossing Louisville. The 5th best compensated conference per school hardly wants to open up the GOR for an expulsion. That's the fantasy posts around here. You might want to talk with X about those. Nobody's kicking Louisville out.

(10-06-2017 03:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-06-2017 02:41 PM)Dasville Wrote:  If UofL diminishes the ACC contract does that not reflect their/our value? At least to the ACC?
uk is an SECN star. Is that good or bad?

In the main board thread about WVU and UConn I lay that out fairly explicitly toward the end of that thread. The WSJ football valuations as compared to the gross total revenues of schools reflects the value that a school generates beyond their own earnings. Those valuations are how the business analysts see the revenue they generate beyond their own institutional revenue streams.

Connecticut and West Virginia both generate more actual revenue for themselves than their valuation is worth. That means they don't bring anything to the table beyond their own programs. Louisville like most healthier brands generates an impact beyond just their own revenue. Therefore their valuation is higher than their total revenue figure.

Louisville received the invitation because that's what networks value and what allows them to pay more to the other conference members. Louisville may be hammered but they aren't going anywhere because the ACC is dead last in total valuation. Should they add Notre Dame in full it would bring the ACC average valuation up by 45 million per school. If they cut Louisville they are definitely cutting their earning potential. Probation will last for a couple of years, but cutting them lasts forever. So if they did cut you who would they get to replace your value? The brands that could are already in the Big 10 or SEC and won't be leaving.

While recognizing that Louisville does provide more value in a vacuum than West Virginia or Connecticut, I don't think the raw numbers/estimates tell the whole story as most don't.

For example, West Virginia is only worth $X while Louisville is worth $Y and Y>X. But if you get WVU with annual match ups with Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and other past rivals and keep the WVU-Duke, WVU-Wake Forrest, etc. match ups to a minimum then you've increased the drawing power of a typical WVU game without using a major brand (FSU, Clemson) that would draw big regardless. Therefore, WVU enhances existing ACC members and removes match ups that don't move the needle and provide low value.

Is this enough to bump WVU into an above-average ACC territory? I don't know. Only the ACC and the networks would likely have a clue and they'd likely hold out for a bigger fish anyways but I think WVU is being sold short despite what the numbers say. Can the same be said for UConn? I don't know. I would say that for football it is probably a no but basketball would certainly be a yes but that's nothing new and the ACC and networks took that into account already. Based on prior history, WVU and UConn provide the most "intangible" value to the ACC based on their past relationship with former Big East members.

(10-06-2017 08:39 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  Normally that would be a concern, but as long as the ACCN has the backing of ESPN/Disney it will be jammed down the throats of providers, whether they like or not, whether the ratings are good or not.

Much like the crappy Big Ten Network. You pay extra for games you have no interest in watching. I watch The SEC Network and I'll watch The ACC Network. No desire to pay to for games from a conference I have no interest in.
CJ