(10-15-2017 12:03 PM)XLance Wrote: What we will see is fewer not more schools in P conferences.
Up until Kansas threw a massive amount of money into football upgrades it looked like it would only be Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia out of the Big 12 to stay in a P conference.
The jury is still out on Kansas to make it in.
Well there are three different vantage points on this topic.
1. Value of the school alone. From this vantage point what X is saying is exactly correct.
2. Value of securing a region. If the goal is to get and keep the attention of viewers in an area then one school isn't going to do it. Oklahoma would work for the SEC in that A&M, Missouri, and Arkansas would have a kind of synergy, but that's not what makes Oklahoma the most valuable. You have to keep key schools that Oklahomans love to keep Oklahomans whether they live in state or DFW.
3. Value of obtaining schools from rapidly growing areas. For the SEC it would be either USF or UCF. When my generation starts disappearing from the planet in about 15 to 20 years these schools will be hitting their zenith. UCF already cranks out more alumni than either Florida or Florida State. USF is increasing research funding regularly. When Boomers are gone and generation Y and Millennials are in peak earning years these two schools will be just as valuable as the top two products are in the state now.
Alumni don't live forever. And while it takes many successive years for tradition to be built, the family traditions will just be getting started for these two schools generationally speaking when 2035 rolls around. They don't meet any major conference metrics at this time, but they are both sure bets to do so in the future. They may be the only two G5 schools outside of Houston to be sure bets.
So the way I take things is usually from vantage point #2. What use is Oklahoma if their fans don't buy in. It is why the SEC needs a second Texas school and preferably one that Oklahomans care about playing. It is why we need somebody that Missourians care about playing. And it is why we should strongly consider adding 4 schools if we wish to keep Missouri and Arkansas, and to augment A&M. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and T.C.U. would probably do that.
Nebraska is dying because the Big 10 looked at their addition from vantage point #1. Missouri is suffering because the ESPN and the SEC looked at their addition from vantage point #1. Florida will one day feel a strain as conferences grow and OOC games are harder to schedule because we did not take into consideration just how very important F.S.U. and Miami were to them.
Two schools from one state in different conferences are not an issue today with 3 or 4 OOC games to be played. But make that just 2 OOC games to be played and lining up dates gets tougher. Make it just 1 and it flips competitive balance to have 11 tough conference games and then substitute your homecoming victim in order to keep a fierce rival on the schedule. So it's going to be an issue and Florida and South Carolina realized that last time around when they both pushed for Florida State and Clemson at the presidents meetings.
And X knows this to be true because keeping Duke, UNC, NCSt and Wake together is the biggest reason not to move. Keeping Virginia is the second biggest reason not to move. There is no offer waiting for 4 North Carolina schools from the B1G or SEC.
The problem with raiding from other conferences is that it damages the fabric of relationships. The only way to minimize that is to take from groups that want the promotion. West Virginia and Rutgers will not be damaged. I assure you that Maryland has been. If the Big 10 never takes another ACC school then Maryland will suffer. Texas wanted to drive this point home to A&M so they urged Big 12 schools not to schedule them or Missouri.
To be successful in having taken particularly Missouri we need to add some schools that Missouri folks care about playing. Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma all fill the bill. I we can incorporate that with another Texas schools so that alternating A&M on a schedule puts them in Texas with a game each year that would be best.
If we ever want to raid the ACC we need to look at the needs of present member schools. Georgia Tech, Florida State or Miami, and Clemson would be essential. If we want into North Carolina we will need to take at least 3.
Realignment cannot succeed as the strategic raid of just one valuable school, and probably not just two unless they are both truly connected. Arkansas and South Carolina would have been much more successful sooner and now if they had been taken with schools that were key to their histories.