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Bowl Projections/Guesses (updated 11/13)
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Gamecock Offline
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Bowl Projections/Guesses (updated 11/13)
As division races are starting to take shape I figured I'd take a really early look at bowls and see where teams are looking

West:

Clinched Bowl

Alabama 10-0 (7-0) - Tilt with Auburn on the 25th will decide the West

Auburn 8-2 (1-1) - Incredible win against Georgia, they may very well still control their destiny.

LSU 7-3 (4-2) - Tennessee is up this week in what should be an easy W. Fighting for a potential Citrus Bowl bid.

Miss State 7-3 (3-3) - Looked very strong against Alabama. Very hard to get a read on this team.

Texas A&M 6-4 (3-3) - I think they need to beat LSU for Sumlin to keep his job.

Out

Arkansas 4-6 (1-4) - Will probably be eliminated this week against Miss St

Ole Miss 5-5 (2-4) - Probably would make a bowl without the self imposed sanctions

East:

Clinched Bowl

Georgia 9-1 (6-1) - Locked up the East already, potential hangover game against UK on the horizon.

South Carolina 7-3 (5-3) - Close out with Wofford and Clemson at home

Kentucky 7-3 (3-3) - Bounce back win against Vandy. Looking for the big upset in Athens before finishing up against Louisville

Work To Do

Missouri 5-5 (2-4) Four straight wins and their as hot as anyone right now. Finish up with Vandy and Arkansas and may land a very good bowl berth after a 1-5 start.

Out

Tennessee 4-6 (0-6) - With LSU this week it's likely the Vandy game that decides if this will be the worst season in school history.

Vanderbilt 4-6 (0-6) - Games against Missouri and Tennessee give them a chance but Vandy has looked bad since that Kansas St win.

Florida 3-6 (3-5) - Winnable games left against UAB and FSU, but they are already mathematically eliminated unless they decide to reschedule an FCS team.

Team APR Rankings

As it has for the past several years, team APR rankings can be used to send 5-7 teams to bowl to fill vacant slots. The relevant teams worth tracking here:

Vanderbilt - 5th among FBS, 992
Florida - 24th among FBS, 980
Missouri - 46th among FBS, 974
Tennessee - 51st among FBS, 972

Everybody else is either safely in a bowl or too far down the list to make it in.

Bowl Projection

Longshot here but I wanted to take a stab at it. Obviously if Auburn or Georgia beat Alabama and the SEC gets a second team into the playoff that bumps everyone up a slot.

Sugar Bowl/CFP: 13-0 Alabama
Orange Bowl: 11-2 Georgia

Citrus Bowl: 9-3 Auburn

Outback Bowl: 9-3 Mississippi State
Taxslayer Bowl: 8-4 South Carolina
Liberty Bowl: 8-4 Kentucky
Texas Bowl: 9-3 LSU
Belk Bowl: 7-5 TAMU

Birmingham Bowl: 7-5 Missouri
Independence Bowl: None eligible


Tennessee (5-7), Florida (5-6), Arkansas (4-8), Vandy (4-8), and Ole Miss (5-7, ineligible) all get left out. Florida (and potentially a 5-7 Vandy) may be eligible depending on how the rest of the teams ahead of them finish, but will the universities even be interested in playing in a bowl game after such a bad season? I have to think Vandy would but Florida would most likely pass.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 10:19 AM by Gamecock.)
10-16-2017 08:56 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-16-2017 08:56 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  As division races are starting to take shape I figured I'd take a really early look at bowls and see where teams are looking

West:

Clinched Bowl

Alabama 7-0 (4-0) - looking like once again they will win the West and perhaps the playoffs. LSU, Auburn, and the SECCG are potential pitfalls.

Safe Bets

Auburn 5-2 (3-1) - The loss to LSU hurts, but they are still in the race for the West. 3 Huge games coming up in November (@A&M, UGA, Alabama)

Texas A&M 5-2 (3-1) - Still very much alive with a very young team. They are off this week before playing Miss St and Auburn at home

LSU 5-2 (2-1) - Very hard to get a read on this team. The win against Auburn was huge. Go @Ole Miss this weekend before a very tough challenge @Alabama in two weeks

Miss State 4-2 (1-2) - Play Kentucky this week at home, which will be critically important for them. Still have games against UMass, @Arkansas, and @Ole Miss.

Need Some Help

Arkansas 2-4 (0-3) - They need a lot of help. Still have some potential wins on the schedule though @Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina, Miss St, and Missouri all at home.

Out

Ole Miss 3-3 (1-2) - Big win over Vandy last week and the offense looks to be hitting their stride. Host LSU and Arkansas the next two weeks and still have a home tilt against ULL as well. They'd probably make a bowl if not for self imposed sanctions.

East:

Clinched Bowl

Georgia 7-0 (4-0) Looks like they are headed for a tilt with Alabama in December

Safe Bets

Kentucky 5-1 (2-1) - Still in the East race, play Georgia in Athens in a game that may very well decide the East

South Carolina 5-2 (3-2) - November is a lot more challenging, but still has games against Vandy, Florida, and Wofford remaining.

Need Some Help

Florida 3-3 (3-2) - They are struggling mightily right now and were lucky to escape Lexington with a win. Very winnable games remaining @ Missouri, @SC, and hosting UAB. Game against FSU in November should be interesting as well

Tennessee 3-3 (0-3) - Have have some tough losses and it won't get easier this weekend. Still have @UK, So Miss, @Missouri, and Vandy left on the schedule.

Vanderbilt 3-4 (0-4) - Losing to Ole Miss was a heartbreaker. Still have winnable contests @SC, West Kentucky, UK, Missouri, and @Tenn but their defense needs to get back on track quickly

Out

Missouri 1-5 (0-4) Just can't seem to get it going this year. Still have some winnable games left against Idaho, @Uconn, Fla, Tenn, and @ Vandy but they need to turn it around quickly. May be eligible for a bowl at 5-7 as well which will be worth tracking later in the season.


Overall I see the SEC getting 11 bowl teams this year with Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Missouri getting left out. I'll continue to update this thread and will start adding in some projections for individual games probably next week. Anyone have any predictions or general thoughts?

I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.
10-16-2017 10:09 AM
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.
10-16-2017 03:35 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2017 03:56 PM by JRsec.)
10-16-2017 03:55 PM
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.
10-18-2017 03:36 PM
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.
10-18-2017 05:09 PM
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

I can agree with that.

The great thing Muschamp did was hire a staff of people that had recruited, SC/GA/FL for years. Guys like Bryan McClendon, Travaris Robinson, Bobby Bentley (former high school coach in SC), and Lance Thompson. They put a huge emphasis on in state players and it's starting to pay off, most of our young playmakers are from SC.

I don't see UT pulling Fuente at all, but they would be wise to hire someone with strong ties to TN/NC/SC/VA.
10-19-2017 03:24 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Projecting the Bowl Teams
1) If Louisville misses a bowl game this year I blame Mississippi State.

2) Tennessee should look at Doeren at NC State.


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(This post was last modified: 10-20-2017 09:39 AM by Lenvillecards.)
10-20-2017 09:36 AM
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

Is TN a step up from VT at this point/is Fuente available? Because I think would be a great hire if he is gettable, but wonder about him being gettable.
10-22-2017 01:05 PM
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Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.

You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

I don't follow recruiting that much but Butch has supposedly gotten top 15 classes for two years. But I watched Dobbs for 3 years never improve. I think that is the issue with the current staff in Knoxville; they can't develop players.
10-22-2017 03:13 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-22-2017 03:13 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

I don't follow recruiting that much but Butch has supposedly gotten top 15 classes for two years. But I watched Dobbs for 3 years never improve. I think that is the issue with the current staff in Knoxville; they can't develop players.

Any new hire can find a QB. But as I pointed out to you a couple of years ago there was never any evidence of player development going on at UT. Where your recruiting has lacked is in the OL and DL and the secondary hasn't been too great either when it comes to open field tackles.
10-22-2017 03:23 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-22-2017 01:05 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.

Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

Is TN a step up from VT at this point/is Fuente available? Because I think would be a great hire if he is gettable, but wonder about him being gettable.

As a coaching destination Tennessee is a step up in every regard from Virginia Tech. You should be able to pay more because you make a heckuva lot more. Historically it is no comparison. And the audience is 40,000 larger. Add that to the fact that on CBS you get national exposure and the answer is yes.

The only limitation is your board of Trustees.
10-22-2017 03:26 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-22-2017 03:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 01:05 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.

The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.

Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

Is TN a step up from VT at this point/is Fuente available? Because I think would be a great hire if he is gettable, but wonder about him being gettable.

As a coaching destination Tennessee is a step up in every regard from Virginia Tech. You should be able to pay more because you make a heckuva lot more. Historically it is no comparison. And the audience is 40,000 larger. Add that to the fact that on CBS you get national exposure and the answer is yes.

The only limitation is your board of Trustees.

If that is the case, then I think he is a home run hire. TN fans are still talking about Gruden, but I think someone like Fuente would be a perfect fit.

I'm not sure who a realistic get is for us. I think the fans expect someone already a head coach at a P5 school, someone with success. But perhaps more realistic is a coordinator or maybe another head coach at a G5 school. But that didn't work with Dooley, and that may not/is not/did not work with Jones.

I've heard Mullen, Gundy, Miles, or even Tee Martin as options. I just don't know who to expect or who I should want.

I also still somewhat believe in the theory from business "everything in the first seven years is the past guys fault." But no SEC coach is getting 7 years while he is 14-22 in the SEC.
10-22-2017 04:40 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-22-2017 04:40 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 03:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 01:05 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.

In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.

I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

Is TN a step up from VT at this point/is Fuente available? Because I think would be a great hire if he is gettable, but wonder about him being gettable.

As a coaching destination Tennessee is a step up in every regard from Virginia Tech. You should be able to pay more because you make a heckuva lot more. Historically it is no comparison. And the audience is 40,000 larger. Add that to the fact that on CBS you get national exposure and the answer is yes.

The only limitation is your board of Trustees.

If that is the case, then I think he is a home run hire. TN fans are still talking about Gruden, but I think someone like Fuente would be a perfect fit.

I'm not sure who a realistic get is for us. I think the fans expect someone already a head coach at a P5 school, someone with success. But perhaps more realistic is a coordinator or maybe another head coach at a G5 school. But that didn't work with Dooley, and that may not/is not/did not work with Jones.

I've heard Mullen, Gundy, Miles, or even Tee Martin as options. I just don't know who to expect or who I should want.

I also still somewhat believe in the theory from business "everything in the first seven years is the past guys fault." But no SEC coach is getting 7 years while he is 14-22 in the SEC.

Most NFL coaches are not suited to college. They don't recruit, they draft. They expect assistants to be more fully in control of their areas, but then NFL budgets allow for experienced assistants. And they are usually lax on discipline. Gruden is all of the above and would be a horrible hire IMO for Tennessee. He'd do fine with another NFL job, if he wanted it.

Saban couldn't do well in the pros and neither could Spurrier. Why? It takes a micro manager to run a successful college program, but a micro manager who is organized enough to only micro manage quality control, not the the individual areas covered by assistants.

They are also strict disciplinarians. Neither quality translates well to the NFL.
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2017 11:00 AM by JRsec.)
10-22-2017 06:19 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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RE: Projecting the Bowl Teams
Bump for this weeks update. Next week I am going to get into the weeds and start predicting final records and bowl matchups.
10-23-2017 08:23 AM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #16
Projecting the Bowl Teams
(10-22-2017 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 04:40 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 03:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2017 01:05 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(10-18-2017 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.

Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.

Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.

These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.

Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.

Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.

So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.

Is TN a step up from VT at this point/is Fuente available? Because I think would be a great hire if he is gettable, but wonder about him being gettable.

As a coaching destination Tennessee is a step up in every regard from Virginia Tech. You should be able to pay more because you make a heckuva lot more. Historically it is no comparison. And the audience is 40,000 larger. Add that to the fact that on CBS you get national exposure and the answer is yes.

The only limitation is your board of Trustees.

If that is the case, then I think he is a home run hire. TN fans are still talking about Gruden, but I think someone like Fuente would be a perfect fit.

I'm not sure who a realistic get is for us. I think the fans expect someone already a head coach at a P5 school, someone with success. But perhaps more realistic is a coordinator or maybe another head coach at a G5 school. But that didn't work with Dooley, and that may not/is not/did not work with Jones.

I've heard Mullen, Gundy, Miles, or even Tee Martin as options. I just don't know who to expect or who I should want.

I also still somewhat believe in the theory from business "everything in the first seven years is the past guys fault." But no SEC coach is getting 7 years while he is 14-22 in the SEC.

Most NFL coaches are not suited to college. They don't recruit, they draft. They expect assistants to be more fully in control of their areas, but then NFL budgets allow for experienced assistants. And they are usually lax on discipline. Gruden is all of the above and would be a horrible hire IMO for Tennessee. He'd do fine with another NFL job, if he wanted it.

Saban couldn't do well in the pros and neither could Spurrier. Why? It takes a micro manager to run a successful college program, but a micro manager who is organized enough to only micro manage quality control, not the the individual areas covered by assistants.

They are also strict disciplinarians. Neither quality translates well to the NFL.


1) The flip side of JR earlier points on Fuente is scheduling. At Tennessee you have Florida & Georgia every year along with Alabama as you permanent crossover. At VT you have Miami & GT with BC as your permanent crossover. His ACC schedule favors more success than what it would at Tennessee. Saban has been a coach killer so while Tennessee could pay more he might not see it as a wise career move. Not to mention the expectations & pressure that comes with an SEC job, look at Miles & Richt for example. Sumlin spending the last couple seasons on the hot seat for another.

2) I agree with JR about pro coaches, I would stick with hiring an experienced college coach. Mullen would be good but if you wanted to look outside of the SEC I would look at Brohm at Purdue. I would rather see him in Louisville once Petrino retires but I think he would be a good one at Tennessee & he's gettable. Another name I would throw out there is Doeren. He's been able to do a lot with the recruits he's gotten at NC State, his potential with Tennessee level recruits is outstanding.


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10-24-2017 08:02 AM
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RE: Bowl Projections/Guesses (updated 11/13)
Updated using current standings.

As it stands today I think Vandy, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, and Arkansas all sit home, which is pretty unbelievable given how many the SEC typically sends to bowls.
11-13-2017 10:20 AM
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RE: Bowl Projections/Guesses (updated 11/13)
(11-13-2017 10:20 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Updated using current standings.

As it stands today I think Vandy, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, and Arkansas all sit home, which is pretty unbelievable given how many the SEC typically sends to bowls.

All those programs not doing much this season
11-13-2017 01:18 PM
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