This week could have a big impact on that question. And by bowl teams I mean, for now, teams that become eligible the old-fashioned way - having 6 wins.

Two games strike me as pivotal. Virginia is a virtual shoo-in (who'd a thunk it?). But if they keep winning this week, they put BC in a very tough position. The Eagles would still need 3 wins, with Florida State, NC State, UConn and Syracuse left to play.

Pitt could also throw a monkey wrench into ACC holiday travel plans. They have almost no shot at bowling themselves. But if they beat Duke this week in Durham, the Devils' path gets a lot harder. Needing two more wins, and with VaTech and GaTech still to play, they may have to beat Army (likely) and Wake Forest (toss-up) to be eligible.

Then, if they do beat Wake at the end of the season, the Deacs need to find two wins from GaTech, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse and NC State.

A Pitt loss this week could help the ACC's chances considerably, but I don't expect them to lay down. What else do they have to play for except pride?

Clemson
NCST
Wake
Miami
VT
UVA
GT
Syracuse
Louisville
Duke

(10-16-2017 05:00 PM)Bigtexnole Wrote:  Clemson
NCST
Wake
Miami
VT
UVA
GT
Syracuse
FSU
Duke

I don't see how you can leave Louisville off your list. I don't think they'll get much more than 6 wins but I do think they'll get there.

(10-16-2017 05:26 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 05:00 PM)Bigtexnole Wrote:  Clemson
NCST
Wake
Miami
VT
UVA
GT
Syracuse
FSU
Duke

I don't see how you can leave Louisville off your list. I don't think they'll get much more than 6 wins but I do think they'll get there.

With how horribly our defense has played the last 2 games, & really all season, I'm not sure Louisville will win another game. Our defense has gotten worse each week. With FSU, Syracuse, WF, Virginia & Kentucky left to play there aren't any guaranteed wins left. BC was supposed to be a guaranteed win & we had a 21-7 lead. Look at what happened there.


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(10-16-2017 05:00 PM)Bigtexnole Wrote:  Clemson
NCST
Wake
Miami
VT
UVA
GT
Syracuse
FSU
Duke

If BC were to beat Virginia this week, I think they could have a realistic path to 6 wins.

I've run several scenarios supposing different head to head results. Individually, each of those results is entirely plausible if not likely. Collectively, my experience is that neither my best case scenario (in which the ACC gets 11 teams in) or the worst case (where we only get 7 teams) are probable. I would be happy with 9.

(10-16-2017 08:04 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 05:00 PM)Bigtexnole Wrote:  Clemson
NCST
Wake
Miami
VT
UVA
GT
Syracuse
FSU
Duke

If BC were to beat Virginia this week, I think they could have a realistic path to 6 wins.

I've run several scenarios supposing different head to head results. Individually, each of those results is entirely plausible if not likely. Collectively, my experience is that neither my best case scenario (in which the ACC gets 11 teams in) or the worst case (where we only get 7 teams) are probable. I would be happy with 9.

9 is fine if that's what it is. I don't think the ACC did well enough out of conference this year to get 11 teams in unless there is a lot of very mediocre play. Usually 10-11 bowl games means you have an awful lot of weak teams. Last year was kind of an exception because the ACC did as well as they did OOC.

There could have a shot at 11. The only thing we know is Pitt and UNC are out. BC, Wake, Duke and Syc will probably knock one of the these four out.

As hard as it is to imagine, even Florida State is vulnerable. With only 11 games due to weather, and three losses already to Top 30 teams, their margin for error is thin. They still have to face Clemson and Florida. Lose those and they have to win the rest to get to 6 wins.

A lot could depend on their mental state. Frankly, I thought their energy against Duke was uncharacteristically low. They need to play with a greater sense of urgency, IMO, or Louisville could put a dagger through their season this week..

I think Florida State pays ULM a boat load of Money to come the weekend of the Championship game.

(10-18-2017 07:16 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I think Florida State pays ULM a boat load of Money to come the weekend of the Championship game.

You would think that they should be working that. Maybe the Athletic Dept. is waiting to see how they do against Louisville. If they win that game, they may feel confident about being able to get 3 more wins. If they lose, they would need to win either at Florida or at Clemson and avoid being upset against BC or Syracuse. No margin for error.

Virginia took one for the team, greatly improving BC's chances of becoming eligible. They need 2 more, and have UConn on the schedule. Could come down to the season finale against Syracuse.

Pitt could have done the same for Duke, but I didn't expect them to roll over. Duke's chances could also come down to the final game, against Wake Forest.

Louisville now needs 1 win, with Wake, UVa, Syracuse and Kentucky remaining.

Jackson is the first Louisville QB to win in Tallahassee since Unitas. Improve to 5-3 (2-3) on the season.


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(10-21-2017 04:12 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Jackson is the first Louisville QB to win in Tallahassee since Unitas. Improve to 5-3 (2-3) on the season.


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I don't think Duke can get to the 5th win to qualify as an APR team. I really hate to see that because I really like Coach Cutcliffe.

(10-21-2017 04:12 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Jackson is the first Louisville QB to win in Tallahassee since Unitas. Improve to 5-3 (2-3) on the season.


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Expect a very tough game this week in Winston-Salem....

By losing to the Cavs, Georgia Tech has put itself into a deep hole. To get two more wins they must beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia to become eligible. I wouldn't bet on that.

I am being honest. Our team chemistry is not good and which team will come to play is always in doubt. Louisville could be:

Best Case: 8-4
Most Likely Case: 7-5 or 6-6
Worst Case: 5-7

So this Card fan is crossing his fingers and hoping for the best.

(11-05-2017 05:39 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:   I am being honest. Our team chemistry is not good and which team will come to play is always in doubt. Louisville could be:

Best Case: 8-4
Most Likely Case: 7-5 or 6-6
Worst Case: 5-7

So this Card fan is crossing his fingers and hoping for the best.

8-4 is possible if a defense shows up. Our leading tacklers are DB's & one of our best LB is a freshman. These aren't good signs on defense. Let's hope we heal up over the bye week & have a strong finish from the D.


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Let's hope, but my gut says its not likely.

Pitt's upset last night at the hand of UNC pretty much sinks their bowl hopes, I'm afraid. It was going to be a long shot anyway, with Va Tech and Miami left to play.

Florida State reopened the door by scheduling a makeup with ULM. The Noles will probably still have to avoid an upset by Florfida to squeak in.

Ga Tech's cancelled game puts them in the hole. They can only lose one more, and they have yet to play Va Tech and Georgia.

Tomorrow may make the picture clearer for a couple of other ACC teams.

Cuse really needs a win vs Wake tomorrow. A loss would really put their backs against the wall. Cuse finishes: Wake, @Ville, BC

Not a murderous row...but all quality teams.