(11-15-2017 01:26 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:15 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:13 PM)IAH Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:09 PM)YNot Wrote:  Similarly, you can make a good case, when you compare Boise St. and USF:

BOISE STATE
WINS
8-2 SDSU
8-2 Troy
7-3 Wyoming
6-5 Colorado St.
5-5 Utah St.
3-7 New Mexico
3-8 BYU
2-8 Nevada
LOSSES
#14, 9-2 Washington St. (by 3 points)
NR, Virginia 6-4

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES
NR, 6-3 Houston

I note that Boise St. has FIVE wins over teams at .500 or better, including two 8-win teams (one of which beat #20 LSU and one of which beat #22 Stanford). Whereas USF's BEST win is over 5-5 Temple. USF's only game against a 6-win team resulted in a loss. And Boise St. has a close ROAD loss to #14 Washington St. Another way to look at it:

BOISE ST.
Record v. Good Teams: 4-2
Good Wins: SDSU, Troy, Wyoming, Colorado St.
Good Losses: Washington St., Virginia
Bad Losses: N/A

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Good Teams: 0-1
Good Wins: N/A
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Pretty easy to see the Selection Committee's justification to this point. If the G5 bid comes down to Boise St. and USF, it will be interesting to see how the committee leans. But, don't worry. USF would ultimately edge out Boise, because that would mean wins over TWO ranked teams to win the AAC championship. Boise St. has no such possibility - and likely won't face a ranked team from here out.

How dare you come here with actual facts and numbers !!!

read my respone above its biased...

How biased is my SDSU vs USF comparison?

SDSU
WINS
10-3 Boise State
10-2 NIU
8-4 Stanford - possibly 9-3/9-4/10-3
5-5 Arizona State
4-6 Air Force
4-6 UNLV
3-7 Hawaii
3-7 New Mexico
1-9 SJSU
1-9 UNR
FCS
LOSSES - 8-2 Boise State, 7-3 Fresno State

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
10-1 UCF
11-2 Memphis
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
2-8 Tulsa
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES - 6-3 Houston

SDSU
Record v. Teams with winning record: 3-2
Good Wins: Boise State, Stanford
Good Losses: Boise State
Bad Losses: Fresno State (due to the way they lost)

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Teams with winning record: 2-1
Good Wins: UCF, Memphis
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Italicized are projections for discussions sake. Still, it is too much to project at this point.

niu already has 3 losses, and has a few hard games left

for sdsu to make the ccg, fresno has to become a 7-5 thus making that loss look WAY worse as it was a blowout ...
you cant have your cake and eat it too..posting 7-3 fresno as your only loss but also listing you make it to ccg

usf will 100% get it if their last 2 wins are ucf and memphis

(11-15-2017 01:35 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:33 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:26 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
How biased is my SDSU vs USF comparison?

SDSU
WINS
10-3 Boise State
9-3 NIU
8-4 Stanford - possibly 9-3/9-4/10-3
5-5 Arizona State
4-6 Air Force
4-6 UNLV
3-7 Hawaii
3-7 New Mexico
1-9 SJSU
1-9 UNR
FCS
LOSSES - 8-2 Boise State, 7-3 Fresno State

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
10-1 UCF
11-2 Memphis
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
2-8 Tulsa
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES - 6-3 Houston

SDSU
Record v. Teams with winning record: 3-2
Good Wins: Boise State, Stanford
Good Losses: Boise State
Bad Losses: Fresno State (due to the way they lost)

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Teams with winning record: 2-1
Good Wins: UCF, Memphis
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Italicized are projections for discussions sake. Still, it is too much to project at this point.

Considering that I got to your second line to find that you want currently 7-3 NIU to finish 10-2...kinda biased...

Just stop. Correction made. I even gave Stanford a loss to ND, just so the crazies don't go crazy screaming "bias!" Anna asif, anna ghulta.

So it comes down to does an extra good win outweigh an extra loss? Call me old-school but ill take the better record. Equal records, no question SDSU..........

(11-15-2017 01:41 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:26 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:15 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:13 PM)IAH Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:09 PM)YNot Wrote:  Similarly, you can make a good case, when you compare Boise St. and USF:

BOISE STATE
WINS
8-2 SDSU
8-2 Troy
7-3 Wyoming
6-5 Colorado St.
5-5 Utah St.
3-7 New Mexico
3-8 BYU
2-8 Nevada
LOSSES
#14, 9-2 Washington St. (by 3 points)
NR, Virginia 6-4

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES
NR, 6-3 Houston

I note that Boise St. has FIVE wins over teams at .500 or better, including two 8-win teams (one of which beat #20 LSU and one of which beat #22 Stanford). Whereas USF's BEST win is over 5-5 Temple. USF's only game against a 6-win team resulted in a loss. And Boise St. has a close ROAD loss to #14 Washington St. Another way to look at it:

BOISE ST.
Record v. Good Teams: 4-2
Good Wins: SDSU, Troy, Wyoming, Colorado St.
Good Losses: Washington St., Virginia
Bad Losses: N/A

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Good Teams: 0-1
Good Wins: N/A
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Pretty easy to see the Selection Committee's justification to this point. If the G5 bid comes down to Boise St. and USF, it will be interesting to see how the committee leans. But, don't worry. USF would ultimately edge out Boise, because that would mean wins over TWO ranked teams to win the AAC championship. Boise St. has no such possibility - and likely won't face a ranked team from here out.

How dare you come here with actual facts and numbers !!!

read my respone above its biased...

How biased is my SDSU vs USF comparison?

SDSU
WINS
10-3 Boise State
10-2 NIU
8-4 Stanford - possibly 9-3/9-4/10-3
5-5 Arizona State
4-6 Air Force
4-6 UNLV
3-7 Hawaii
3-7 New Mexico
1-9 SJSU
1-9 UNR
FCS
LOSSES - 8-2 Boise State, 7-3 Fresno State

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
10-1 UCF
11-2 Memphis
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
2-8 Tulsa
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES - 6-3 Houston

SDSU
Record v. Teams with winning record: 3-2
Good Wins: Boise State, Stanford
Good Losses: Boise State
Bad Losses: Fresno State (due to the way they lost)

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Teams with winning record: 2-1
Good Wins: UCF, Memphis
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Italicized are projections for discussions sake. Still, it is too much to project at this point.

niu already has 3 losses, and has a few hard games left

for sdsu to make the ccg, fresno has to become a 7-5 thus making that loss look WAY worse as it was a blowout ...
you cant have your cake and eat it too..posting 7-3 fresno as your only loss but also listing you make it to ccg

usf will 100% get it if their last 2 wins are ucf and memphis

Did you not read what I wrote? I agreed with you regarding Fresno, and made the NIU correction.

The bolded portion is yet another assertion. I love it.

(11-15-2017 01:43 PM)otown Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:35 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:33 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:26 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
How biased is my SDSU vs USF comparison?

SDSU
WINS
10-3 Boise State
9-3 NIU
8-4 Stanford - possibly 9-3/9-4/10-3
5-5 Arizona State
4-6 Air Force
4-6 UNLV
3-7 Hawaii
3-7 New Mexico
1-9 SJSU
1-9 UNR
FCS
LOSSES - 8-2 Boise State, 7-3 Fresno State

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
10-1 UCF
11-2 Memphis
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
2-8 Tulsa
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES - 6-3 Houston

SDSU
Record v. Teams with winning record: 3-2
Good Wins: Boise State, Stanford
Good Losses: Boise State
Bad Losses: Fresno State (due to the way they lost)

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Teams with winning record: 2-1
Good Wins: UCF, Memphis
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Italicized are projections for discussions sake. Still, it is too much to project at this point.

Considering that I got to your second line to find that you want currently 7-3 NIU to finish 10-2...kinda biased...

Just stop. Correction made. I even gave Stanford a loss to ND, just so the crazies don't go crazy screaming "bias!" Anna asif, anna ghulta.

So it comes down to does an extra good win outweigh an extra loss? Call me old-school but ill take the better record. Equal records, no question SDSU..........

I agree with you. My only point is, it will be a discussion, and USF being champion would put the AAC at risk, whereas UCF or Memphis would not.

(11-15-2017 11:39 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:11 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:09 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:03 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 09:56 AM)coogrfan Wrote:  That's absolutely what it is. Anyone who says otherwise hasn't been paying attention.

ABC/ESPN is invested in black friday now. So they might have a sit down with the CFP committee about needing both teams to have a number next to them.
I can see it happening next week. By then, with 2 games left, the pool of possible top 4 teams shrinks to about 8 teams. So they can afford to move UCF up to 13ish and bring USF in at ~24.

Do you actually believe this?

Which part?
That the playoff committee reports to ESPN? Yes
That ESPN knows that ranked vs ranked games have a quantitatively higher rating? Yes

I'm actually not sure which part you think is not true.

Do you have evidence that the committee reports to ESPN? This would be a "Clinton Cash" level scandal in CFB if true.

It is certainly possible, but do you have evidence to suggest this?

Do I have proof the committee reports to ESPN? Yes, it's in the guide on my cable service. Tuesday nights, after the committee reports to ESPN, they air the rankings.

(11-15-2017 01:49 PM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 11:39 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:11 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:09 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:03 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  ABC/ESPN is invested in black friday now. So they might have a sit down with the CFP committee about needing both teams to have a number next to them.
I can see it happening next week. By then, with 2 games left, the pool of possible top 4 teams shrinks to about 8 teams. So they can afford to move UCF up to 13ish and bring USF in at ~24.

Do you actually believe this?

Which part?
That the playoff committee reports to ESPN? Yes
That ESPN knows that ranked vs ranked games have a quantitatively higher rating? Yes

I'm actually not sure which part you think is not true.

Do you have evidence that the committee reports to ESPN? This would be a "Clinton Cash" level scandal in CFB if true.

It is certainly possible, but do you have evidence to suggest this?

Do I have proof the committee reports to ESPN? Yes, it's in the guide on my cable service. Tuesday nights, after the committee reports to ESPN, they air the rankings.

Ha.

(11-15-2017 01:46 PM)fanhood Wrote:  The bolded portion is yet another assertion. I love it.

its a fact...remove all 14 layers of bias you have one

do you really think a 11-1 usf get passed over if they beat an undefeated ucf (likely top 10 in the ap poll) on ABC, Then beats a top 15 memphis in the CCG on ABC..with its only loss coming from a hail mary??? (from a decent brand team, likely to finish 8-3)

if you want the mwc to get the access......go to the local sports store...grab a smu jersey and root for them to beat memphis this weekend....that is only realistic chance...then if the west wins it and boise doesnt lose another, its a lock

(11-15-2017 01:02 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I appreciate your adding some rigor to the conversation with these last three posts.
My quibble, though is your definition of "good." From Kirby Hocutt saying the '16 Navy had three quality wins in Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa that WMU did not (best wins were Northwestern and Toledo), that would put the quality line right at #40 (from archived Massey Composite rankings that week). 40 passes the common sense check in that step one of the committee's process is for each member to list Top 30 teams, those on 3 or more lists are in the pool to be discussed. You probably end up with about 40 teams in your committee pool.

If 40 is the line, then:

BOISE ST.
Record v. Good Teams: 2-1
Good Wins: #35 SDSU, #35 SDSU
Avg Ranking of Wins: 74.91
Good Losses: Washington St.
Average Losses: #64 Virginia
Bad Losses: N/A

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Good Teams: 2-1
Good Wins: #15 UCF, #21 Memphis
Avg Ranking of FBS Wins: 76.4
Good Losses: Houston
Average Losses: N/A
Bad Losses: N/A

Fresno, Troy, Wyoming all in the 50s - still better than USFs next batch of wins, but overall strength of schedule is statistically insignificant. Also I can't call Virginia loss "good." This laydown also gave Boise benefit of the doubt of higher ranked west champ -- getting #35 SDSU requires #58 Fresno to lose at Wyoming this week in addition to losing to Boise at home (which would drag down Boise's overall SoS).

Excellent feedback. Thank you. I only used the term "good" (representing a winning record) in an effort to NOT be biased. (and, didn't have the motivation to look up Massey rankings, SOS numbers, and what not).

I do think the CFP Selection Committee does more of a detailed look like you suggest (and than I did). Not sure where they draw the line, but I think it actually might be something similar to what you see during March Madness selection - conference and non-conference SOS, record v. top-10, top-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76+, etc. home, road, and neutral-site comparisons, offensive and defensive quotients, etc....something like that....and, a box for the "eye test."

The point still stands that RIGHT NOW, the Selection Committee can justify their decision to rank Boise St. ahead of South Florida. I absolutely believe that South Florida would pass Boise St. if the Bulls win out.

I also believe that the AAC champion will be either UCF or Memphis. And both of those teams will clearly have better resumes than Boise St., so the NY6 bid won't really be that close of a selection decision.

And, the potential sudden rematch of Boise St.-Fresno St. is certain to hurt the Broncos, not help.

EDIT: On a side note - how dumb is the MWC to schedule cross-division games in November, including to end the season? Fresno plays Wyoming and Boise St. in its last two games - those are the two likely Mountain Division winners in Fresno's last two games. There are many other cross-division games in the last couple of weeks. The chance of a quick turnaround rematch was actually pretty high.

Why in the world do you not have a bunch of divisional games the last 3 weeks of the season? That makes for some exciting and meaningful football down the stretch.

(11-15-2017 01:55 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:46 PM)fanhood Wrote:  The bolded portion is yet another assertion. I love it.

its a fact...remove all 14 layers of bias you have one

do you really think a 11-1 usf get passed over if they beat an undefeated ucf (likely top 10 in the ap poll) on ABC, Then beats a top 15 memphis in the CCG on ABC..with its only loss coming from a hail mary??? (from a decent brand team, likely to finish 8-3)

if you want the mwc to get the access......go to the local sports store...grab a smu jersey and root for them to beat memphis this weekend....that is only realistic chance...then if the west wins it and boise doesnt lose another, its a lock

Again. Yes. Assertions. Thank you.

My question wasn't why is Michigan ranked and South Florida not. My question was simply why is Michigan ranked?

We are in week 11. If you don't have a single win over a team with a winning record by week 11 you are NOT a top 25 team, period. Who cares if you have a couple of "good" losses.

Michigan's best win according to the Massey composite is Purdue at #61. San Diego State has MUCH better wins than Michigan. Shouldn't that matter more than quality of losses?

(11-15-2017 02:02 PM)CornellCoog Wrote:  My question wasn't why is Michigan ranked and South Florida not. My question was simply why is Michigan ranked?

We are in week 11. If you don't have a single win over a team with a winning record by week 11 you are NOT a top 25 team, period. Who cares if you have a couple of "good" losses.

Michigan's best win according to the Massey composite is Purdue at #61. San Diego State has MUCH better wins than Michigan. Shouldn't that matter more than quality of losses?

What are your options? Other than South Florida, who isn't ranked that should be? Troy?
Army? Toledo? SDSU? You can poke a hole in any of these teams' current resumes to justify Michigan's position ahead of them.

(11-15-2017 01:35 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:33 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:26 PM)fanhood Wrote:  
How biased is my SDSU vs USF comparison?

SDSU
WINS
10-3 Boise State
9-3 NIU
8-4 Stanford - possibly 9-3/9-4/10-3
5-5 Arizona State
4-6 Air Force
4-6 UNLV
3-7 Hawaii
3-7 New Mexico
1-9 SJSU
1-9 UNR
FCS
LOSSES - 8-2 Boise State, 7-3 Fresno State

SOUTH FLORIDA
WINS
10-1 UCF
11-2 Memphis
5-5 Temple
4-6 Tulane
3-7 Cincinnati
3-7 UConn
2-8 Illinois
2-8 ECU
2-8 Tulsa
1-10 SJSU
FCS
LOSSES - 6-3 Houston

SDSU
Record v. Teams with winning record: 3-2
Good Wins: Boise State, Stanford
Good Losses: Boise State
Bad Losses: Fresno State (due to the way they lost)

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Teams with winning record: 2-1
Good Wins: UCF, Memphis
Good Losses: Houston
Bad Losses: N/A

Italicized are projections for discussions sake. Still, it is too much to project at this point.

Considering that I got to your second line to find that you want currently 7-3 NIU to finish 10-2...kinda biased...

Just stop. Correction made. I even gave Stanford a loss to ND, just so the crazies don't go crazy screaming "bias!" Anna asif, anna ghulta.

Shukran.

I think this also shows that SDSU involves more variables than Boise,the AAC contenders, or even Fresno.
I think Stanford is still a quality win for SDSU, but could end up across a broad range, depending not just on Stanford taking care of business against Cal and ND, but on the Apple Cup.
Talk is already out there about Fresno taking two more losses for SDSU to get to the finish line, but you already had them as "bad loss" so not too big a deal.
NIU ranked #50 now, so a "winning record" win, but probably not "quality" win. Where's Arizona State end up? probably same boat. Those contribute to an overall SoS better but not markedly so.
SDSU over Boise in CCG is interesting because how does committee consider Aztecs winning that after losing in regular season?

Bottom line, even AAC's weakest champ, 11-1 USF has better record, has one quality win better than Stanford (UCF) and a second quality win equal to Stanford and better than Boise whom SDSU both beat and lost to.

You can poke a hole in anything but first, shouldn't the thing you be poking a hole in be worthy or poking?

Seriously though, this is sports. Shouldn't WINNING actually matter most? Michigan hasn't proven themselves able to beat anyone with a healthy pulse. Shouldn't that be more important than a bad loss here or there?

Put it this way, there are 130 FBS teams. 74 of them have a better win than Michigan.

(11-15-2017 01:55 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:02 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I appreciate your adding some rigor to the conversation with these last three posts.
My quibble, though is your definition of "good." From Kirby Hocutt saying the '16 Navy had three quality wins in Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa that WMU did not (best wins were Northwestern and Toledo), that would put the quality line right at #40 (from archived Massey Composite rankings that week). 40 passes the common sense check in that step one of the committee's process is for each member to list Top 30 teams, those on 3 or more lists are in the pool to be discussed. You probably end up with about 40 teams in your committee pool.

If 40 is the line, then:

BOISE ST.
Record v. Good Teams: 2-1
Good Wins: #35 SDSU, #35 SDSU
Avg Ranking of Wins: 74.91
Good Losses: Washington St.
Average Losses: #64 Virginia
Bad Losses: N/A

SOUTH FLORIDA
Record v. Good Teams: 2-1
Good Wins: #15 UCF, #21 Memphis
Avg Ranking of FBS Wins: 76.4
Good Losses: Houston
Average Losses: N/A
Bad Losses: N/A

Fresno, Troy, Wyoming all in the 50s - still better than USFs next batch of wins, but overall strength of schedule is statistically insignificant. Also I can't call Virginia loss "good." This laydown also gave Boise benefit of the doubt of higher ranked west champ -- getting #35 SDSU requires #58 Fresno to lose at Wyoming this week in addition to losing to Boise at home (which would drag down Boise's overall SoS).

Excellent feedback. Thank you. I only used the term "good" (representing a winning record) in an effort to NOT be biased. (and, didn't have the motivation to look up Massey rankings, SOS numbers, and what not).

I do think the CFP Selection Committee does more of a detailed look like you suggest (and than I did). Not sure where they draw the line, but I think it actually might be something similar to what you see during March Madness selection - conference and non-conference SOS, record v. top-10, top-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76+, etc. home, road, and neutral-site comparisons, offensive and defensive quotients, etc....something like that....and, a box for the "eye test."

The point still stands that RIGHT NOW, the Selection Committee can justify their decision to rank Boise St. ahead of South Florida. I absolutely believe that South Florida would pass Boise St. if the Bulls win out.

I also believe that the AAC champion will be either UCF or Memphis. And both of those teams will clearly have better resumes than Boise St., so the NY6 bid won't really be that close of a selection decision.

And, the potential sudden rematch of Boise St.-Fresno St. is certain to hurt the Broncos, not help.

EDIT: On a side note - how dumb is the MWC to schedule cross-division games in November, including to end the season? Fresno plays Wyoming and Boise St. in its last two games - those are the two likely Mountain Division winners in Fresno's last two games. There are many other cross-division games in the last couple of weeks. The chance of a quick turnaround rematch was actually pretty high.

Why in the world do you not have a bunch of divisional games the last 3 weeks of the season? That makes for some exciting and meaningful football down the stretch.

Here are two good articles on the Committee process - they have journos participate in a mock process using BCS-era seasons each year.

https://www.theathletic.com/113415/2017/...selection/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristidosh/...9091a13d7a

Still somewhat tantalizingly vague: "a variety of ways a voter can look at quality of schedule along with other metrics such as offensive, defensive and special team statistics."

I think there is general consensus on the bolded part - but we are after all on a message board.

Also agree with the italicized. CCG rematches are bad enough; back to back weekends is odd. Edited to add: AAC has 4 cross-divisional games over the last three weeks this year; mwc has 6 cross-divisional and 4 intra-divisional over the last two weeks.

Dang, you peeps have become so wrapped up in the "P6" mantra that it is apparently impossible for you to see things like the CFP Committee and other rational people do. San Diego State is probably closer to breaking into the CFP Top-25 than USF is. That is the reality of poor scheduling and a really weak division that would be rated below at least one FCS conference if UCF wasn't also in it. There is no way in hell a USF team with a SOS currently rated lower than about a half dozen FCS teams (per Sagarin) is getting into a NY6 game, even if they were to win out.

(11-15-2017 09:16 PM)Sapper7 Wrote:  Dang, you peeps have become so wrapped up in the "P6" mantra that it is apparently impossible for you to see things like the CFP Committee and other rational people do. San Diego State is probably closer to breaking into the CFP Top-25 than USF is. That is the reality of poor scheduling and a really weak division that would be rated below at least one FCS conference if UCF wasn't also in it. There is no way in hell a USF team with a SOS currently rated lower than about a half dozen FCS teams (per Sagarin) is getting into a NY6 game, even if they were to win out.

Since you seem to like Sagarin, his conference ratings (which have become division ratings):
1-9, the divisions/big12 of the 5 contract-bowl-conferences
10. AAC West
11. FBS Independents
12. mwc Mountain
13. AAC East
14. MAC West
15. Missouri Valley (FCS)
16. mwc West (you know, SDSU's division)

(11-15-2017 01:21 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:17 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 01:11 PM)pesik Wrote:  also YNot your senerio has boise playing sdsu twice....you realize that fresno has to lose out for sdsu to even make its ccg
wyoming was trash to begin with but will also likely be without josh allen vs fresno

also your scenario has current records for sdsus opponents, not projected records....and used projected records for usfs top opponents... added the losses to usf for ucf and memphis...but not for sdsu or fresno losing to boise

virginia is also likely to finish 6-6

Wyoming at Home is a tough out. I realize you will never acknowledge us, but those of us that have actually been there, and watched our teams play in Laramie for years, know this. I think Fresno is more talented than Wyo, but will lose this game.

1) josh allen might not even play
2) wyoming has lost in blowout fashion to any team with a heartbeat (with josh allen)..5-5 oregona beat them senseless on a transition year in Laramie

again stop making "your preference" the logical outcome

You realize Wyo opened as a 1 point favorite right? The line has now moved to Fresno being favored by 1.5. Pretty much a pick em.

(11-15-2017 09:16 PM)Sapper7 Wrote:  Dang, you peeps have become so wrapped up in the "P6" mantra that it is apparently impossible for you to see things like the CFP Committee and other rational people do. San Diego State is probably closer to breaking into the CFP Top-25 than USF is. That is the reality of poor scheduling and a really weak division that would be rated below at least one FCS conference if UCF wasn't also in it. There is no way in hell a USF team with a SOS currently rated lower than about a half dozen FCS teams (per Sagarin) is getting into a NY6 game, even if they were to win out.

Both Divisions suck. Difference is SDSU played a relatively challenging OOC, which makes it possible for SDSU to be in front of USF even with one more loss.

(11-16-2017 08:44 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 09:16 PM)Sapper7 Wrote:  Dang, you peeps have become so wrapped up in the "P6" mantra that it is apparently impossible for you to see things like the CFP Committee and other rational people do. San Diego State is probably closer to breaking into the CFP Top-25 than USF is. That is the reality of poor scheduling and a really weak division that would be rated below at least one FCS conference if UCF wasn't also in it. There is no way in hell a USF team with a SOS currently rated lower than about a half dozen FCS teams (per Sagarin) is getting into a NY6 game, even if they were to win out.

Both Divisions suck. Difference is SDSU played a relatively challenging OOC, which makes it possible for SDSU to be in front of USF even with one more loss.

USF's final 2 games are against better teams than anyone SDSU has, or will, face all season long.

Run along.

(11-16-2017 08:57 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 08:44 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 09:16 PM)Sapper7 Wrote:  Dang, you peeps have become so wrapped up in the "P6" mantra that it is apparently impossible for you to see things like the CFP Committee and other rational people do. San Diego State is probably closer to breaking into the CFP Top-25 than USF is. That is the reality of poor scheduling and a really weak division that would be rated below at least one FCS conference if UCF wasn't also in it. There is no way in hell a USF team with a SOS currently rated lower than about a half dozen FCS teams (per Sagarin) is getting into a NY6 game, even if they were to win out.

Both Divisions suck. Difference is SDSU played a relatively challenging OOC, which makes it possible for SDSU to be in front of USF even with one more loss.

USF's final 2 games are against better teams than anyone SDSU has, or will, face all season long.

Run along.

Ha.