(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

And you have to beat a contender and have the chips fall right with the P5. Houston would have been close if they had gone unbeaten last year, but probably would have just been short.

0.00000000% chance.

I know UCF will not make the playoff, but how high in the CFP rankings do you think they can get?

I think they can make the top 10 if they go 12-0. My guess is 8th.

(11-17-2017 08:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

And you have to beat a contender and have the chips fall right with the P5. Houston would have been close if they had gone unbeaten last year, but probably would have just been short.

Maybe, but I really think Houston would have been in over Washington.

They were a huge TV draw because of the Oklahoma win.

They would have beaten a top 8 Oklahoma team, a top 12 Louisville team. A 9 win navy, a 7 or 8 win Memphis, a 10 win Tulsa and a couple of other bowl teams and the AAC Champ game against another top 25 team.

4 top 25 teams ( AAC Champ Game) , 6 or 7ish bowl teams. Their SoS would have been quite a bit better than that Washington team.

With Washington having that loss and Houston having 2 wins Washington couldn't compete with #4 seemed more likely than not.

(11-17-2017 08:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

And you have to beat a contender and have the chips fall right with the P5. Houston would have been close if they had gone unbeaten last year, but probably would have just been short.

But if they started at 2 or 3 or 4 like P5 teams they'd be in the driver seat.

(11-17-2017 01:31 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 09:26 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

Not true. I know that's the running predictor on many G5 boards but it makes no sense.

Say UCF wins the Access Bowl this season. (Great for them!)

Next season comes up they are Preseason top 15 in the AP and Coaches. They again have a 99th ranked SoS after 9 games. They will be about where they are now. That's the great thing about the committee. Things are based season to season, there is no carry over.

You can't just go undefeated 2 years in a row over 80-110 SoS's and expect to have the right to be in the conversation. Just like every single team even in the P5. You have to earn it.

Great story you told there, sport. Really had me riveted.

Any other tall tales you'd like to share?

Truth hurt?

No. Got anymore tall tales to tell?

(11-17-2017 09:38 AM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 01:31 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 09:26 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

Not true. I know that's the running predictor on many G5 boards but it makes no sense.

Say UCF wins the Access Bowl this season. (Great for them!)

Next season comes up they are Preseason top 15 in the AP and Coaches. They again have a 99th ranked SoS after 9 games. They will be about where they are now. That's the great thing about the committee. Things are based season to season, there is no carry over.

You can't just go undefeated 2 years in a row over 80-110 SoS's and expect to have the right to be in the conversation. Just like every single team even in the P5. You have to earn it.

Great story you told there, sport. Really had me riveted.

Any other tall tales you'd like to share?

Truth hurt?

No. Got anymore tall tales to tell?

It's incredibly amusing when 15 year olds incapable of having adult conversations try to communicate lol.

(11-17-2017 09:34 AM)Minutemen429 Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 08:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

And you have to beat a contender and have the chips fall right with the P5. Houston would have been close if they had gone unbeaten last year, but probably would have just been short.

But if they started at 2 or 3 or 4 like P5 teams they'd be in the driver seat.

No they wouldn't.

The committee rankings are different than the AP and Coaches polls. Those 2 polls are irrelevant once the Committee rankings come out.

Those committee rankings are based on resume'.

An undefeated Houston team last season would have had it, an undefeated UCF team this season won't.

(11-17-2017 10:24 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 09:34 AM)Minutemen429 Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 08:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

And you have to beat a contender and have the chips fall right with the P5. Houston would have been close if they had gone unbeaten last year, but probably would have just been short.

But if they started at 2 or 3 or 4 like P5 teams they'd be in the driver seat.

No they wouldn't.

The committee rankings are different than the AP and Coaches polls. Those 2 polls are irrelevant once the Committee rankings come out.

Those committee rankings are based on resume'.

An undefeated Houston team last season would have had it, an undefeated UCF team this season won't.

Exactly why OOC is so important to make up for a rightfully or wrongfully poorly perceived conference.

(11-17-2017 10:19 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 09:38 AM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 01:31 AM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 09:26 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  Not true. I know that's the running predictor on many G5 boards but it makes no sense.

Say UCF wins the Access Bowl this season. (Great for them!)

Next season comes up they are Preseason top 15 in the AP and Coaches. They again have a 99th ranked SoS after 9 games. They will be about where they are now. That's the great thing about the committee. Things are based season to season, there is no carry over.

You can't just go undefeated 2 years in a row over 80-110 SoS's and expect to have the right to be in the conversation. Just like every single team even in the P5. You have to earn it.

Great story you told there, sport. Really had me riveted.

Any other tall tales you'd like to share?

Truth hurt?

No. Got anymore tall tales to tell?

It's incredibly amusing when 15 year olds incapable of having adult conversations try to communicate lol.

So the answer is.....yes, you do have more tall tales to tell? Good.

UCF wins out and beats two top 20 teams in consecutive weeks.

So Cal and TCU win their conferences with 3 losses

Notre Dame loses a third game

Alabama wins out and soundly defeats UGA in the SECCG, denying the SEC a second playoff team

Wisconsin finished undefeated, soundly beating Ohio St and denying a second Big ten team

Clemson loses to South Carolina and then Miami in the ACCG

I think in that scenario UCF gets in as number four over a handful of 3 loss teams. Outside of the complete absence of any strong one or two loss teams, I just don’t see it

(11-17-2017 05:55 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  UCF wins out and beats two top 20 teams in consecutive weeks.

So Cal and TCU win their conferences with 3 losses

Notre Dame loses a third game

Alabama wins out and soundly defeats UGA in the SECCG, denying the SEC a second playoff team

Wisconsin finished undefeated, soundly beating Ohio St and denying a second Big ten team

Clemson loses to South Carolina and then Miami in the ACCG

I think in that scenario UCF gets in as number four over a handful of 3 loss teams. Outside of the complete absence of any strong one or two loss teams, I just don’t see it

Even then....I dont know. A 4 loss Auburn was in front of an undefeated W Michigan last year (who's CFP ranking rise interestingly stalled out about where UCF's is now). My guess is one of the many 2 and 3 loss teams ahead of UCF would get the nod rather than UCF.

I think few understand just how incredibly biased the committee is with respect to the P5-G5 divide. With virtually all P5 reps in the deliberation room, it becomes an echo chamber where UCF is simply not seen as a viable top 10 team---much less a top 4 team. Basically, a once in a lifetime G5 team would be worthy of top 10 status with this group. Thats the ceiling. No G5 team will ever be granted a playoff slot under current conditions. The type of people being appointed to act as the selection commttee representatives just dont think its even remotely impossible that a G5 team could be top 4. They arent unethical---they just truly believe that. The people that choose the committee members---now they ARE unethical.

(11-17-2017 05:55 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  UCF wins out and beats two top 20 teams in consecutive weeks.

So Cal and TCU win their conferences with 3 losses

Notre Dame loses a third game

Alabama wins out and soundly defeats UGA in the SECCG, denying the SEC a second playoff team

Wisconsin finished undefeated, soundly beating Ohio St and denying a second Big ten team

Clemson loses to South Carolina and then Miami in the ACCG

I think in that scenario UCF gets in as number four over a handful of 3 loss teams. Outside of the complete absence of any strong one or two loss teams, I just don’t see it

2 loss Oklahoma in your scenario gets in with Alabama, Wisconsin, and Miami.......or at least be ahead of UCF

Not this year. If we win out and make another run, next year, then maybe. But SoS will be an issue, as always. Perception as usual.

(11-17-2017 06:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think few understand just how incredibly biased the committee is with respect to the P5-G5 divide.

In three years, the CFP has selected 12 teams for the playoffs. Those 12 teams are the same 12 that would have been selected had we used a combined AP/Coaches poll, and IIRC, the same 12 that the BCS computers would have chosen.

So if the CFP is biased against the G5, they have plenty of company, eh?

(11-17-2017 06:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 05:55 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  UCF wins out and beats two top 20 teams in consecutive weeks.

So Cal and TCU win their conferences with 3 losses

Notre Dame loses a third game

Alabama wins out and soundly defeats UGA in the SECCG, denying the SEC a second playoff team

Wisconsin finished undefeated, soundly beating Ohio St and denying a second Big ten team

Clemson loses to South Carolina and then Miami in the ACCG

I think in that scenario UCF gets in as number four over a handful of 3 loss teams. Outside of the complete absence of any strong one or two loss teams, I just don’t see it

Even then....I dont know. A 4 loss Auburn was in front of an undefeated W Michigan last year (who's CFP ranking rise interestingly stalled out about where UCF's is now). My guess is one of the many 2 and 3 loss teams ahead of UCF would get the nod rather than UCF.

I think few understand just how incredibly biased the committee is with respect to the P5-G5 divide. With virtually all P5 reps in the deliberation room, it becomes an echo chamber where UCF is simply not seen as a viable top 10 team---much less a top 4 team. Basically, a once in a lifetime G5 team would be worthy of top 10 status with this group. Thats the ceiling. No G5 team will ever be granted a playoff slot under current conditions. The type of people being appointed to act as the selection commttee representatives just dont think its even remotely impossible that a G5 team could be top 4. They arent unethical---they just truly believe that. The people that choose the committee members---now they ARE unethical.

Perhaps you’re right, but I think in this scenario public pressure will become almost unbearable and they’d have to put them in. Yes, a four loss Auburn was ahead of WMU but I think if that had been over the final spot in a playoff that they would have flipped those two.

I hope there is chaos because that might mean we actually get some real reform