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What an 8-team playoff might look like
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johnbragg Online
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What an 8-team playoff might look like
Just because I like to do these thought experiments. Mainly I want to explore--would expanding the playoff dilute the regular season?

The usual argument there is that with 8 teams, you'd have teams basically guaranteed a spot, which would devalue the CCGs and maybe even some late season games--the situation college basketball has, where Coach Calipari says of the SEC Tourament "We don't hang 3-letter banners"

So assume automatic bids for the P5 conferences, plus an automatic bid for the top G5 champion. Also assume that the current top ranked team wins their conference.

Using the CFP rankings from Tuesday:
1. Alabama (SEC)
2. Clemson (ACC)
3. Miami (at-large)
4. Oklahoma (XII)
5. Wisconsin (B1G)
6. Auburn (at-large)
7. USC (PAC) (CFP #11)
8. UCF (G-5) (CFP #15)
Plus UGA, Notre DAme, Ohio STate, Penn STate in the top ten.

The interesting stuff is who gets the two at-large bids. Going from bottom to top:

I don't think anyone currently outside the top ten is going to be able to make a case. Penn State can't really do anything to move up. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten, they're in, otherwise a third loss eliminates them.

Georgia winning the SEC Championship puts them in. Losing another game to Auburn, or losing to Alabama puts them "on the bubble".

Looking at who's in right now, from bottom to top.
If UCF doesnt' win the AAC title game, then they're out. USC with 3 losses isn't getting an at-large.

Auburn is "in the mix" no matter what in an 8-team playoff. If Auburn loses to Alabama, and Alabama beats Georgia, then Auburn has an argument over Georgia for one of the spots. If Georgia beats Alabama for the SEC title, than Auburn has the argument that they beat Georgia. If Auburn beats Alabama, and then loses to Georgia, they're in competition with Alabama and the ACC title game loser for two spots. (There may be another contender in the mix, I don't know yet).

Wisconsin. If Wisconsin loses to Ohio State, they're 12-1 with wins over Iowa, Northwestern (#23) and Michigan (#24). They'd be going up against the losers of the ACC and SEC title games, plus the Alabama-Auburn loser.

Oklahoma. If they lose the Big 12 title game, they're 2-1 against TCU and Oklahoma State, plus a win over Ohio State and a loss to Iowa State. If Ohio State upends Wisconsin and TCU upsets Oklahoma, Oklahoma's "in the mix"--they'd have wins over 2 of the 8 playoff teams. If Ohio State loses, Oklahoma is probably not getting an at-large over the ACC runner-up, the Iron Bowl loser or the SEC runner-up.

Miami-Clemson is a game where the loser probably makes the 8-team field. Miami would be 12-1 with a win over Notre Dame, Clemson would be 11-2 with a win over Auburn. That stacks up pretty well against an Oklahoma or Wisconsin after a CCG upset, or against Auburn or Georgia after an Alabama loss, or against Notre Dame or Penn State.

Finally, Alabama would be pretty much locked in. If they lose to Auburn, then they're 11-1 with 2 top 25 wins and no bad losses. If they lose to Georgia in the CCG, they're 12-1 with 3 top 25 wins and no bad losses.

So the possibilities would be, from bottom to top:
2 SEC teams out of Alabama, Georgia and Auburn
Loser of Miami-Clemson
Oklahoma if they lose
Wisconsin if they lose

So nobody can really afford to slack off in their CCG, because it's still a "beauty contest" for the two at-large spots.
11-18-2017 06:39 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.
11-18-2017 09:36 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

isn't that what folks said about even going to 4?
11-18-2017 09:44 PM
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oliveandblue Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

There are too many half-empty stadiums and too few teams playing for nothing for over half the season.

Most of the regular season is irrelevant right now.
11-18-2017 10:01 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
4 is perfect because we've had years where there has been very unclear 2 vs 3 in the BCS Championship. Between 4 and 5 it doesn't make a huge difference most years because either team will have major flaws in the resume. Some years will have more parity with perhaps 6-7 teams having a case to be ranked as high as 2 or 3, but those rare years aren't enough to throw away most of the regular season.

Now that every P5 team plays a CCG it will be an impossibility for all P5 conferences to run the table. More demanding OOC scheduling will also prevent 5 undefeated P5 teams from happening. Will it happen once every 100 years, probably, but it would make for a hell of a debate though.
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017 10:10 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-18-2017 10:07 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  4 is perfect because we've had years where there has been very unclear 2 vs 3 in the BCS Championship. Between 4 and 5 it doesn't make a huge difference most years because either team will have major flaws in the resume. Some years will have more parity with perhaps 6-7 teams having a case to be ranked as high as 2 or 3, but those rare years aren't enough to throw away most of the regular season.

Now that every P5 team plays a CCG it will be an impossibility for all P5 conferences to run the table. More demanding OOC scheduling will also prevent 5 undefeated P5 teams from happening. Will it happen once every 100 years, probably, but it would make for a hell of a debate though.

TCU was #6 in 2014 and may well have been the best team in the country. The point of expanding is to try to get the best team with a chance to prove it on the field, rather than trying to prove it in a smoke filled room.
11-18-2017 10:15 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
No thanks...
11-18-2017 10:17 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 10:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  4 is perfect because we've had years where there has been very unclear 2 vs 3 in the BCS Championship. Between 4 and 5 it doesn't make a huge difference most years because either team will have major flaws in the resume. Some years will have more parity with perhaps 6-7 teams having a case to be ranked as high as 2 or 3, but those rare years aren't enough to throw away most of the regular season.

Now that every P5 team plays a CCG it will be an impossibility for all P5 conferences to run the table. More demanding OOC scheduling will also prevent 5 undefeated P5 teams from happening. Will it happen once every 100 years, probably, but it would make for a hell of a debate though.

TCU was #6 in 2014 and may well have been the best team in the country. The point of expanding is to try to get the best team with a chance to prove it on the field, rather than trying to prove it in a smoke filled room.

2014 was the rare year so far in the cycle that happens every 3-4 years on average. Keep in mind Baylor TCU now play the extra game as the Big 12 learned the lesson it's better to play than take a week off. Yes, one team would have gotten screwed, but injuries and dropping games early on that bite you in the arse are a part of the deal in college football.
11-18-2017 10:21 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
For the 1000th time. It would be top 8, no Conference Champs. CFP is not going to give autobids! 03-banghead
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2017 10:23 PM by msm96wolf.)
11-18-2017 10:22 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  For the 1000th time. It would be top 8, no Conference Champs. CFP is not going to give autobids! 03-banghead

This is stupid too. How many chances do we have to give to schools like ND or OSU or any brand you want to insert in there? Those teams are still vying for 8. OSU has been the most dominant team the past two weeks but does it matter? They had their chance and got blown out.
11-18-2017 10:29 PM
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johnbragg Online
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

I don't blame you for not reading my wall of text, but you have to win the regular season to get to the point where the last couple of games are important. If you don't win your conference, you're competing for one of only two at-large spots.

The safest team, in an 8 team setup, would be Alabama. They could lose the Iron Bowl or the SEC title game and still be a favorite for one of the two at-large bids. That's what happens when you're 11-0 in the SEC.

But the Iron Bowl isn't "irrelevant"--if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl, they're 9-3 and have to hope that Georgia or Miami or Clemson absolutely stink in their CCGs, while Oklahoma and Wisconsin don't get upset by TCU or Ohio State. (Not to mention the advantages for Alabama of being the #1 seed and drawing UCF or USC instead of being 11-1 or 12-1 and playing Oklahoma or Wisconsin)

The loser of the SEC and ACC championship games *probably* still goes to the playoff. Unless Wisconsin or Oklahoma lose a nail-biter, or unless Notre Dame comes out and beats Stanford by 30, or unless they lay an egg in the CCG. 2 at-large bids don't give you much margin for error.
11-18-2017 10:48 PM
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johnbragg Online
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  For the 1000th time. It would be top 8, no Conference Champs. CFP is not going to give autobids! 03-banghead

1. I don't think the P5 sign off if they don't get autobids. And if the P5 get autobids, I think they keep the charity spot for the G5.

2. If it's top 8, no autobids, THEN the regular season loses value. If it's just top 8, then Alabama can mail in the Iron Bowl or the SEC championship game--they're not dropping out of the top 8. Likewise Clemson and Miami--they're dropping that far no matter what happens in Charlotte. The PAC-12 game might as well be cancelled, because USC or Washington aren't going to make it.
11-18-2017 10:59 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

My thoughts exactly.

People complain about "cupcake" schedules now, imagine if you expanded to 8 teams, no one would want to play ANYONE out of conference for fear of losing out.
11-18-2017 11:01 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 10:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  For the 1000th time. It would be top 8, no Conference Champs. CFP is not going to give autobids! 03-banghead

1. I don't think the P5 sign off if they don't get autobids. And if the P5 get autobids, I think they keep the charity spot for the G5.

2. If it's top 8, no autobids, THEN the regular season loses value. If it's just top 8, then Alabama can mail in the Iron Bowl or the SEC championship game--they're not dropping out of the top 8. Likewise Clemson and Miami--they're dropping that far no matter what happens in Charlotte. The PAC-12 game might as well be cancelled, because USC or Washington aren't going to make it.

Alabama very possibly can lose the Iron Bowl THIS year and still make it in.

And if it's top 8 no autobids USC at least and quite possibly Washington could in their title game be playing to get in the top 8.
11-18-2017 11:05 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 11:01 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

My thoughts exactly.

People complain about "cupcake" schedules now, imagine if you expanded to 8 teams, no one would want to play ANYONE out of conference for fear of losing out.

No, autobids mean that if you go undefeated in your conference, you're in no matter what happened OOC. And the competition for the two at-large bids is going to favor schools with big OOC wins on their resume.
11-18-2017 11:07 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 10:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 10:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  For the 1000th time. It would be top 8, no Conference Champs. CFP is not going to give autobids! 03-banghead

1. I don't think the P5 sign off if they don't get autobids. And if the P5 get autobids, I think they keep the charity spot for the G5.

2. If it's top 8, no autobids, THEN the regular season loses value. If it's just top 8, then Alabama can mail in the Iron Bowl or the SEC championship game--they're not dropping out of the top 8. Likewise Clemson and Miami--they're dropping that far no matter what happens in Charlotte. The PAC-12 game might as well be cancelled, because USC or Washington aren't going to make it.

Before any expansion is discussed, how about getting the conferences to play the same number of conference games? Everyone plays the three "warm-up" games at the beginning of the season then plays 9 conference games. That way you don't have certain teams playing a conference game in November and others playing Mercer. Everyone should be on the same terms.

If that's possible, then you go with the 5 conference champions and three wild cards which would be made up of a pool from the runner ups and ND (if they're having a good year).


This year would look something like

Bama
Clemson
OU
USC
WI

Miami
tOSU
Georgia

I'd watch that.
11-18-2017 11:10 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 11:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 11:01 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

My thoughts exactly.

People complain about "cupcake" schedules now, imagine if you expanded to 8 teams, no one would want to play ANYONE out of conference for fear of losing out.

No, autobids mean that if you go undefeated in your conference, you're in no matter what happened OOC. And the competition for the two at-large bids is going to favor schools with big OOC wins on their resume.

I agree that autobids would be a must.

However.....

A 2 or 3 loss conference champion getting in over a 1 loss divisional runner up might be a tough pill to swallow for some.
11-18-2017 11:12 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 11:12 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 11:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 11:01 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

My thoughts exactly.

People complain about "cupcake" schedules now, imagine if you expanded to 8 teams, no one would want to play ANYONE out of conference for fear of losing out.

No, autobids mean that if you go undefeated in your conference, you're in no matter what happened OOC. And the competition for the two at-large bids is going to favor schools with big OOC wins on their resume.

I agree that autobids would be a must.

However.....

A 2 or 3 loss conference champion getting in over a 1 loss divisional runner up might be a tough pill to swallow for some.

The division runner up needs to have the resume to claim one of the 2-3 at large bids. (And I don't think the P5 want to deal with the political hassle of shutting out the G5, so there would be a G5 autobid).
11-18-2017 11:26 PM
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jarmzet Offline
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
This is the college football plan you want.

16 team playoff plus meaningful postseason games for every team.

http://greglange.blogspot.com/2013/04/my...-plan.html
11-18-2017 11:55 PM
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RE: What an 8-team playoff might look like
(11-18-2017 11:55 PM)jarmzet Wrote:  This is the college football plan you want.

16 team playoff plus meaningful postseason games for every team.

http://greglange.blogspot.com/2013/04/my...-plan.html

The flaws I see with this:

(1) Conferences finding it hard to go back to seven or eight games, especially when you ask them to increase to sixteen members.
(2) Programs not having a set date for their home “ladder game”.
(3) What happens to the gift pool players at bowl games enjoy?
(4) Anything relying on more than 10 conferences. It’s unclear if the author wants to combine FBS and FCS. If this happened, we would lose the Big 12 and one G5 conference. There are 13 conferences at the FCS level, so we probably lose five there. Oh, and what eight teams are joining the Ivy League? Would FBS teams have to reduce scholarships? Could FCS teams increase them?
(5) Ladder games in December and January conflict with NFL Saturdays, final exams, or both. Granted, some of this exists with bowls now, but it would be a bigger problem. And what happens when you don’t have a number of non-playoff teams divisible by three? This plan seems tied to there being exactly 256 teams.
(6) No path for Independents.
11-19-2017 07:10 AM
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