What an 8-team playoff might look like
Just because I like to do these thought experiments. Mainly I want to explore--would expanding the playoff dilute the regular season?
The usual argument there is that with 8 teams, you'd have teams basically guaranteed a spot, which would devalue the CCGs and maybe even some late season games--the situation college basketball has, where Coach Calipari says of the SEC Tourament "We don't hang 3-letter banners"
So assume automatic bids for the P5 conferences, plus an automatic bid for the top G5 champion. Also assume that the current top ranked team wins their conference.
Using the CFP rankings from Tuesday:
1. Alabama (SEC)
2. Clemson (ACC)
3. Miami (at-large)
4. Oklahoma (XII)
5. Wisconsin (B1G)
6. Auburn (at-large)
7. USC (PAC) (CFP #11)
8. UCF (G-5) (CFP #15)
Plus UGA, Notre DAme, Ohio STate, Penn STate in the top ten.
The interesting stuff is who gets the two at-large bids. Going from bottom to top:
I don't think anyone currently outside the top ten is going to be able to make a case. Penn State can't really do anything to move up. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten, they're in, otherwise a third loss eliminates them.
Georgia winning the SEC Championship puts them in. Losing another game to Auburn, or losing to Alabama puts them "on the bubble".
Looking at who's in right now, from bottom to top.
If UCF doesnt' win the AAC title game, then they're out. USC with 3 losses isn't getting an at-large.
Auburn is "in the mix" no matter what in an 8-team playoff. If Auburn loses to Alabama, and Alabama beats Georgia, then Auburn has an argument over Georgia for one of the spots. If Georgia beats Alabama for the SEC title, than Auburn has the argument that they beat Georgia. If Auburn beats Alabama, and then loses to Georgia, they're in competition with Alabama and the ACC title game loser for two spots. (There may be another contender in the mix, I don't know yet).
Wisconsin. If Wisconsin loses to Ohio State, they're 12-1 with wins over Iowa, Northwestern (#23) and Michigan (#24). They'd be going up against the losers of the ACC and SEC title games, plus the Alabama-Auburn loser.
Oklahoma. If they lose the Big 12 title game, they're 2-1 against TCU and Oklahoma State, plus a win over Ohio State and a loss to Iowa State. If Ohio State upends Wisconsin and TCU upsets Oklahoma, Oklahoma's "in the mix"--they'd have wins over 2 of the 8 playoff teams. If Ohio State loses, Oklahoma is probably not getting an at-large over the ACC runner-up, the Iron Bowl loser or the SEC runner-up.
Miami-Clemson is a game where the loser probably makes the 8-team field. Miami would be 12-1 with a win over Notre Dame, Clemson would be 11-2 with a win over Auburn. That stacks up pretty well against an Oklahoma or Wisconsin after a CCG upset, or against Auburn or Georgia after an Alabama loss, or against Notre Dame or Penn State.
Finally, Alabama would be pretty much locked in. If they lose to Auburn, then they're 11-1 with 2 top 25 wins and no bad losses. If they lose to Georgia in the CCG, they're 12-1 with 3 top 25 wins and no bad losses.
So the possibilities would be, from bottom to top:
2 SEC teams out of Alabama, Georgia and Auburn
Loser of Miami-Clemson
Oklahoma if they lose
Wisconsin if they lose
So nobody can really afford to slack off in their CCG, because it's still a "beauty contest" for the two at-large spots.
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