I put this on ShockerNet, figured I'd post here to generate some discussion. Excuse the crappy formatting.

OoC SoS Forecasts
UCONN 11
Temple 27
Wichita State 35
Memphis 139
SMU 153
UCF 164
Tulsa 236
Tulane 255
Houston 261
Cincinnati 270
South Florida 346
East Carolina 347

East Carolina -
South Florida - I'm going to hope that schedule was put together by the previous coaching staff. 346 is even in a complete rebuild.
Cincinnati - Are you guys too poor to afford good buy games like Wichita State?
Houston - I thought you were supposed to compete for an at-large this year? Not with that schedule!

Everyone else is fine with gold stars for Temple and UCONN (even though UCONN sucks).

Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

Yikes. Those are bad. Cincinnati seems to have really, really good opponents or really, really bad ones. There's no in-between.

(11-28-2017 02:37 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

I'd like to see everyone under 200.

I can't believe there are 4 teams worse than Tulane! We only have 2 good games and 2 not terrible games. :/

Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

(11-28-2017 02:37 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

I don't think there is a line for 'acceptable.' For example, it doesn't make sense for Tulane to play a Top 30 OOC SOS. Tulane is trying to get up off the mat and get the program going with some wins. Getting blitzed by a bunch of Top 50 teams doesn't help them, or the league.

Having said that, you literally have to try to have schedules as bad as USF and ECU's. I also do not understand why Cincy bought so many games against RPI 300+ teams instead of RPI 150-250 teams. It's basically the same game to a team of their caliber, but it would sure help the computer numbers a lot, both for themselves, and the league.

It's also still plenty early for these numbers to be considered accurate at all. At the same time, Top 75 teams are usually Top 100 teams the next season, and Bottom 50 teams are usually bottom 75 teams the next season, so it isn't completely without value.

(11-28-2017 02:40 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Yikes. Those are bad. Cincinnati seems to have really, really good opponents or really, really bad ones. There's no in-between.

Yeah, it's weird...we have 4 ranked OOC opponents, so I'm not sure how we're THAT bad. Our buy games have always been tremendously awful though, so that's nothing new.

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

(11-28-2017 02:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

How is this...we have an SOS of 177 right now and haven't played #8, #14, #50, and #68 according to ESPN BPI

(11-28-2017 02:41 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  I can't believe there are 4 teams worse than Tulane! We only have 2 good games and 2 not terrible games. :/

But Tulane's schedule is appropriate given the current state of the program and what you're trying to build there. Cincinnati and Houston should be scheduling smarter. Both were hurt this year with their preseason tournament opponents. The PK80 really diluted the field.

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

Cincy absolutely has some good and great games on it's non-con. It also has 5 games against teams that finished 273, 282, 336, 342, and 345 in the RPI last year. If you're tired of 6 seeds, that isn't a very convincing way to prove it.

(11-28-2017 02:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

How is this...we have an SOS of 177 right now and haven't played #8, #14, #50, and #68 according to ESPN BPI

Where are you getting that number? Warren Nolan has you at 284 and the site I’m using (rpiforecast.com) has you at 212 with the Alabama State game not factored in yet.

Oh duh, you probably got it from BPI. BPI seems to be a bit more “off” than other computer rankings. KenPom (considered the leader for analytics) currently has you at 343.

LOL...we are 2-4 with a 347 sos.

(11-28-2017 02:55 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  LOL...we are 2-4 with a 347 sos.

Just wait til y'all knock off WSU and screw the whole conference #LEBO'D

(11-28-2017 02:45 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:37 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

I don't think there is a line for 'acceptable.' For example, it doesn't make sense for Tulane to play a Top 30 OOC SOS. Tulane is trying to get up off the mat and get the program going with some wins. Getting blitzed by a bunch of Top 50 teams doesn't help them, or the league.

Having said that, you literally have to try to have schedules as bad as USF and ECU's. I also do not understand why Cincy bought so many games against RPI 300+ teams instead of RPI 150-250 teams. It's basically the same game to a team of their caliber, but it would sure help the computer numbers a lot, both for themselves, and the league.

It's also still plenty early for these numbers to be considered accurate at all. At the same time, Top 75 teams are usually Top 100 teams the next season, and Bottom 50 teams are usually bottom 75 teams the next season, so it isn't completely without value.

It's worth noting here that UC got screwed doubly by playing in that Cayman Islands tourney. Not only were the games in it meh at best, but those tournaments schedule you in campus games not in the event. UC got paired with playing Savannah St (330) and Alabama St (344) instead of the other teams, Jacksonville St (118) and Chattanooga (244).

UC's bad buy games this year were Coppin St and Ark-Pine Bluff. Western Carolina is pretty meh, but at least not 300+. Cleveland St is a little better most years so I wouldn't consider that a bad buy game.

I'm fairly sure they did it to save some money this year too. Those buy games against 200 and under consistent teams cost a lot more money. UC did a lot better last year when they didn't play anyone 300+ the whole year.

(11-28-2017 02:52 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

How is this...we have an SOS of 177 right now and haven't played #8, #14, #50, and #68 according to ESPN BPI

Where are you getting that number? Warren Nolan has you at 284 and the site I’m using (rpiforecast.com) has you at 212 with the Alabama State game not factored in yet.

Oh duh, you probably got it from BPI. BPI seems to be a bit more “off” than other computer rankings. KenPom (considered the leader for analytics) currently has you at 343.

Doing the math, I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. UC is at 284 now playing already the worst of their schedule, with 4 straight Top 50 opponents to come. Hard to see how that only jumps them up 14 spots in SoS.

(11-28-2017 03:21 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:55 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  LOL...we are 2-4 with a 347 sos.

Just wait til y'all knock off WSU and screw the whole conference #LEBO'D

The only way that happens is if Hitachi plays their cheerleaders against us. And that would be close. I can only assume that our players are either awful or are not trying. We won't win 10 games this year.

(11-28-2017 03:30 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:52 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:44 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Chill folks we have a gauntlet to run in December...smh

This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

How is this...we have an SOS of 177 right now and haven't played #8, #14, #50, and #68 according to ESPN BPI

Where are you getting that number? Warren Nolan has you at 284 and the site I’m using (rpiforecast.com) has you at 212 with the Alabama State game not factored in yet.

Oh duh, you probably got it from BPI. BPI seems to be a bit more “off” than other computer rankings. KenPom (considered the leader for analytics) currently has you at 343.

Doing the math, I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. UC is at 284 now playing already the worst of their schedule, with 4 straight Top 50 opponents to come. Hard to see how that only jumps them up 14 spots in SoS.

Projections I’m looking at has Mississippi State finishing closer to 150 than top 50 and then I think you have 2 more trash opponents to cancel out the good ones.

(11-28-2017 03:45 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 03:30 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:52 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:48 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  This runs Sagarin simulations through the rest of the season and forecasts W/L, SOS and RPI based on that. Cincy might end up with a 250 or 300 OoC SoS but it’s not going to be good whatever it is.

How is this...we have an SOS of 177 right now and haven't played #8, #14, #50, and #68 according to ESPN BPI

Where are you getting that number? Warren Nolan has you at 284 and the site I’m using (rpiforecast.com) has you at 212 with the Alabama State game not factored in yet.

Oh duh, you probably got it from BPI. BPI seems to be a bit more “off” than other computer rankings. KenPom (considered the leader for analytics) currently has you at 343.

Doing the math, I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. UC is at 284 now playing already the worst of their schedule, with 4 straight Top 50 opponents to come. Hard to see how that only jumps them up 14 spots in SoS.

Projections I’m looking at has Mississippi State finishing closer to 150 than top 50 and then I think you have 2 more trash opponents to cancel out the good ones.

Hmm. I don't see how Miss St doesn't finish at least Top 100, though Top 50 would probably be a stretch. The SEC is very strong this year.

The only trash buy game left is Ark-Pine Bluff. Cleveland St is projected to be around 250, and with us being currently at 284, those two games weighting against the other 4 wouldn't remotely come close to cancelling it out.

I know you are using a projection model, but I'd question the assumptions there.