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What if USC left the Pac-12?
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #61
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

Not to be rude (as my wife is a Coog) but Washington will go wherever the CA schools tell them to go. If the four CA schools and four Texas schools said we are doing this move the rest would be scrambling to join. The easiest two to get are Colorado and Utah as the have no ties to break.

So you have: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Utah in the West. Arizona, Oregon and Washington are given a take it or leave it proposition. My guess is they take it or risk getting replaced by UNLV or Hawaii.

East is harder: Texas, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Colorado approach Nebraska first. If they are in they give Kansas and Oklahoma a take it or leave it offer. Otherwise add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is glad to be in.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2017 02:39 PM by Sactowndog.)
12-19-2017 02:37 PM
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #62
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-14-2017 08:11 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  Thinking out loud, I don't believe USC could pull off independence up to their current level. As others have mentioned, the PAC schools would likely blackball them, including USC's replacement. Long story short, whoever that replacement would be, it's unlikely they'd be close to what USC provides so the conference will cave to at least some of USC's demands.

Assuming they did leave, I have a tough time imagining any other schools joining as an independent. USC may get a Notre Dame deal with the Big 12 but I doubt they'd want to hitch themselves to them. The Big East likely would require a travel partner to go along with them but I don't know of anyone up to the caliber of the Big East remotely close to USC. The Big Ten likely wouldn't want a partial like USC unless they had another PAC school tag along, which brings me to my next point.

If USC is going to be a full member of a conference other than the PAC, I think the Big Ten and Big 12 would reciprocate the interest. Of the two, I think USC would prefer the Big Ten. The conference (Big Ten or Big 12) would want some partners to tag along with USC and it is hard to leave out any of the California schools so Cal, Stanford, and UCLA go with USC. But Washington will want to come along and so Oregon makes sense to grab as well. Might as well take the Arizona pair, and Colorado makes for a nice bridge with Utah. By the end, all you're doing is exiling Washington State and Oregon State so you may as well just stay in the PAC and work things out.

As a Big Ten fan, I could get behind a conference like this:

Washington, Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
Colorado, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue

Three divisions, play seven division games plus one of each other division rotating. Division winners plus a wildcard make the conference semifinals. All the setup does is move Purdue over to the existing eastern division, add a former conference mate (Colorado) with a ton of past history who is on good enough terms to schedule several future games with them still in Nebraska, and keeps the core PAC together in the west.

Unrealistic, I know, but going off the premise that USC may get wandering eyes, this is what I came up with.

Madness, no one is going to blackball us. You underestimate how much those schools literally rely on us.
12-19-2017 02:46 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #63
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:46 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(12-14-2017 08:11 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  Thinking out loud, I don't believe USC could pull off independence up to their current level. As others have mentioned, the PAC schools would likely blackball them, including USC's replacement. Long story short, whoever that replacement would be, it's unlikely they'd be close to what USC provides so the conference will cave to at least some of USC's demands.

Assuming they did leave, I have a tough time imagining any other schools joining as an independent. USC may get a Notre Dame deal with the Big 12 but I doubt they'd want to hitch themselves to them. The Big East likely would require a travel partner to go along with them but I don't know of anyone up to the caliber of the Big East remotely close to USC. The Big Ten likely wouldn't want a partial like USC unless they had another PAC school tag along, which brings me to my next point.

If USC is going to be a full member of a conference other than the PAC, I think the Big Ten and Big 12 would reciprocate the interest. Of the two, I think USC would prefer the Big Ten. The conference (Big Ten or Big 12) would want some partners to tag along with USC and it is hard to leave out any of the California schools so Cal, Stanford, and UCLA go with USC. But Washington will want to come along and so Oregon makes sense to grab as well. Might as well take the Arizona pair, and Colorado makes for a nice bridge with Utah. By the end, all you're doing is exiling Washington State and Oregon State so you may as well just stay in the PAC and work things out.

As a Big Ten fan, I could get behind a conference like this:

Washington, Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
Colorado, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue

Three divisions, play seven division games plus one of each other division rotating. Division winners plus a wildcard make the conference semifinals. All the setup does is move Purdue over to the existing eastern division, add a former conference mate (Colorado) with a ton of past history who is on good enough terms to schedule several future games with them still in Nebraska, and keeps the core PAC together in the west.

Unrealistic, I know, but going off the premise that USC may get wandering eyes, this is what I came up with.

Madness, no one is going to blackball us. You underestimate how much those schools literally rely on us.


I am the furthest thing in the world from a Southern Cal fan, but you are absolutely correct. Nobody will blackball the Trojans and the Pac 12 very much relies on them.

Now, I don't think that there is any chance that Southern Cal will go football independent, but it would be fun to see them come over from the dark side and into the light......
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2017 03:08 PM by TerryD.)
12-19-2017 03:07 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #64
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

One other comment. USC, Cal, Stanford and UCLA are huge names in a huge state and are not going to have their fate dictated to them. They will much more likely from a conference with terms to their liking.
12-19-2017 03:10 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #65
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:37 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

Not to be rude (as my wife is a Coog) but Washington will go wherever the CA schools tell them to go. If the four CA schools and four Texas schools said we are doing this move the rest would be scrambling to join. The easiest two to get are Colorado and Utah as the have no ties to break.

So you have: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Utah in the West. Arizona, Oregon and Washington are given a take it or leave it proposition. My guess is they take it or risk getting replaced by UNLV or Hawaii.

East is harder: Texas, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Colorado approach Nebraska first. If they are in they give Kansas and Oklahoma a take it or leave it offer. Otherwise add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is glad to be in.

That assumes that the 4 Cal schools would would be willing to be in a conference with the other 3 Texas schools. UT would be an absolute yes, but I don't see the academic types at Cal or Stanford cosying up to Tech, TCU, or Baylor. I'm sure if they were inclined to blow up the PAC they'd be much more accommodating to overtures from the B1G.

Nebraska isn't going anywhere and if given the opportunity, Kansas would flirt with the B1G before agreeing to join the new Caltex conference.

I still think if the PAC is doomed there would be a split between the XII and B1G.
12-19-2017 04:12 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #66
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 03:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

One other comment. USC, Cal, Stanford and UCLA are huge names in a huge state and are not going to have their fate dictated to them. They will much more likely from a conference with terms to their liking.

Another thing to consider is that the BTN could absorb, combine with the PACN. Texas would have that option, but with no XII network, it could be a hard sell.
12-19-2017 04:14 PM
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #67
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 03:07 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:46 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(12-14-2017 08:11 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  Thinking out loud, I don't believe USC could pull off independence up to their current level. As others have mentioned, the PAC schools would likely blackball them, including USC's replacement. Long story short, whoever that replacement would be, it's unlikely they'd be close to what USC provides so the conference will cave to at least some of USC's demands.

Assuming they did leave, I have a tough time imagining any other schools joining as an independent. USC may get a Notre Dame deal with the Big 12 but I doubt they'd want to hitch themselves to them. The Big East likely would require a travel partner to go along with them but I don't know of anyone up to the caliber of the Big East remotely close to USC. The Big Ten likely wouldn't want a partial like USC unless they had another PAC school tag along, which brings me to my next point.

If USC is going to be a full member of a conference other than the PAC, I think the Big Ten and Big 12 would reciprocate the interest. Of the two, I think USC would prefer the Big Ten. The conference (Big Ten or Big 12) would want some partners to tag along with USC and it is hard to leave out any of the California schools so Cal, Stanford, and UCLA go with USC. But Washington will want to come along and so Oregon makes sense to grab as well. Might as well take the Arizona pair, and Colorado makes for a nice bridge with Utah. By the end, all you're doing is exiling Washington State and Oregon State so you may as well just stay in the PAC and work things out.

As a Big Ten fan, I could get behind a conference like this:

Washington, Oregon, USC, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
Colorado, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue

Three divisions, play seven division games plus one of each other division rotating. Division winners plus a wildcard make the conference semifinals. All the setup does is move Purdue over to the existing eastern division, add a former conference mate (Colorado) with a ton of past history who is on good enough terms to schedule several future games with them still in Nebraska, and keeps the core PAC together in the west.

Unrealistic, I know, but going off the premise that USC may get wandering eyes, this is what I came up with.

Madness, no one is going to blackball us. You underestimate how much those schools literally rely on us.


I am the furthest thing in the world from a Southern Cal fan, but you are absolutely correct. Nobody will blackball the Trojans and the Pac 12 very much relies on them.

Now, I don't think that there is any chance that Southern Cal will go football independent, but it would be fun to see them come over from the dark side and into the light......

Same, I don't see it happening but I wish it would happen.

But people do not understand when you are Washington State know what legitimizes you as a power program? "We play in the same conference as USC". When the PAC-12 was being finalized programs literally argued over the fact that they would not play us as much.
12-19-2017 04:25 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #68
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:37 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  That assumes that the 4 Cal schools would would be willing to be in a conference with the other 3 Texas schools. UT would be an absolute yes, but I don't see the academic types at Cal or Stanford cosying up to Tech, TCU, or Baylor. I'm sure if they were inclined to blow up the PAC they'd be much more accommodating to overtures from the B1G.

Nebraska isn't going anywhere and if given the opportunity, Kansas would flirt with the B1G before agreeing to join the new Caltex conference.

I still think if the PAC is doomed there would be a split between the XII and B1G.

A compromise that might satisfy Texas and the California academics would be a 14-team conference that includes all of the PAC and B12 AAU institutions, plus Oklahoma, a second team in Texas, and one other lucky school (may be Utah, because of geography and realistic AAU aspirations):

West: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Arizona
East: Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Utah(or Arizona St. or Oklahoma St.?)
12-19-2017 04:34 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
[quote='TrojanCampaign' pid='14911679' dateline='1513718702'Same, I don't see it happening but I wish it would happen.

But people do not understand when you are Washington State know what legitimizes you as a power program? "We play in the same conference as USC". When the PAC-12 was being finalized programs literally argued over the fact that they would not play us as much.[/quote]

USC is a jewel. So is Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Texas, and Alabama. They will always be the top of the food chain in value and have been mostly competitive every decade. I would label a few others as historical jewels or potential jewels. Historical jewels would include schools like Nebraska, Penn St, and Pittsburgh whose success is primarily prior to the last couple decades. Potential jewels would include schools like Florida, Florida St, and Miami whose success is primarily in the last couple decades.

Jewels will always bring conferences up. When a jewel is successful, the conference is successful. When a jewel is down, the conferences suffers. Potential jewels are exciting because they could stay a jewel for decades to come. Historical jewels are great because they have a timelessness and a respect that comes along with the program.
12-19-2017 04:38 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #70
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-12-2017 08:53 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  The Big 12 is about 6 years away from the GOR expiring. What if SoCal got together with some of the Big 12 programs and built a new conference. New SWC?

West
1, Arizona State
2, BYU
3, Colorado
4, Colorado State
5, New Mexico
6, USC

East
1, Kansas
2, Oklahoma
3, Oklahoma state
4, TCU
5, Texas
6, Texas Tech

USC isn’t going anywhere without UCLA, Stanford, Cal. And quite frankly they don’t need to as any University in the country would give their left nut to be associated with those 4 Universities. But you underestimate the snobbery of those schools. They will associate with like minded Universities but not just anyone. They have the power to call the shots especially if paired with Texas, Utah and Colorado which are all AAU schools. Kansas will join in a heart beat.

Just Academically you have:
USC (AAU)
UCLA (AAU)
Cal (AAU)
Stanford (AAU)
Utah (Not AAU)
Texas (AAU)
Texas Tech (Not AAU)
Colorado (AAU).

That is your core group. Then you place a series of calls:
1) Your first call is a discreet call to Kansas and tell them you or Iowa State. You have 24 hours to see if they want to join. Kansas says yes and Now you have Kansas (AAU)
2) Then you tell Arizona you or UNLV. What do you want to do? Arizona has no alternative being in the West. Arizona says yes
Arizona (AAU).
3) Call Oregon, you or Hawaii. What do you want? Oregon say yes
Oregon (AAU)
4) Call Washington and say you or AZ State? Washington has no choice and Washington (AAU)
5) Call Oklahoma and say we want you but not Okie State. See what happens...

You now have almost every AAU school west of the Mississippi, you can start to fill in the east. Now finish with calls first to peer AAU members: Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. See if any want to join this distinguished list of schools... you might get one maybe two. Then you fill in from there ending with 4 Texas schools and 4 non-Texas schools in the east.

Ideally you end with Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M/Houston, TCU, Baylor. With Missouri, Iowa State, New Mexico and Baylor
all options. Worst case is you lose Boren and Oklahoma to SEC but I doubt Oklahoma will choose to associate with Alabama and Mississippi versus the list of Western AAU Flagship schools.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2017 04:56 PM by Sactowndog.)
12-19-2017 04:52 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #71
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 04:14 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 03:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

One other comment. USC, Cal, Stanford and UCLA are huge names in a huge state and are not going to have their fate dictated to them. They will much more likely from a conference with terms to their liking.

Another thing to consider is that the BTN could absorb, combine with the PACN. Texas would have that option, but with no XII network, it could be a hard sell.

The Big is too East and already at 14 teams. They might get Kansas but Kansas would have 24 hours to decide as would Washington, Oregon and AZ. Hawaii, UNLV or Boise would all happily take their spot. Trust me I saw the Mountain West execute this model and know how it works. 24 hours to decide to go with a powerful core or risk being left out.
12-19-2017 05:06 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #72
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 04:52 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  USC isn’t going anywhere without UCLA, Stanford, Cal. And quite frankly they don’t need to as any University in the country would give their left nut to be associated with those 4 Universities. But you underestimate the snobbery of those schools. They will associate with like minded Universities but not just anyone. They have the power to call the shots especially if paired with Texas, Utah and Colorado which are all AAU schools. Kansas will join in a heart beat.

Just Academically you have:
USC (AAU)
UCLA (AAU)
Cal (AAU)
Stanford (AAU)
Utah (Not AAU)
Texas (AAU)
Texas Tech (Not AAU)
Colorado (AAU).

That is your core group. Then you place a series of calls:
1) Your first call is a discreet call to Kansas and tell them you or Iowa State. You have 24 hours to see if they want to join. Kansas says yes and Now you have Kansas (AAU)
2) Then you tell Arizona you or UNLV. What do you want to do? Arizona has no alternative being in the West. Arizona says yes
Arizona (AAU).
3) Call Oregon, you or Hawaii. What do you want? Oregon say yes
Oregon (AAU)
4) Call Washington and say you or AZ State? Washington has no choice and Washington (AAU)
5) Call Oklahoma and say we want you but not Okie State. See what happens...

You now have almost every AAU school west of the Mississippi, you can start to fill in the east. Now finish with calls first to peer AAU members: Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. See if any want to join this distinguished list of schools... you might get one maybe two. Then you fill in from there ending with 4 Texas schools and 4 non-Texas schools in the east.

Ideally you end with Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M/Houston, TCU, Baylor. With Missouri, Iowa State, New Mexico and Baylor
all options. Worst case is you lose Boren and Oklahoma to SEC but I doubt Oklahoma will choose to associate with Alabama and Mississippi versus the list of Western AAU Flagship schools.

I would think the leadership of these schools would be a little too savvy to be duped by such transparent ultimatums. Oregon, for example, will see their replacement by Hawaii as a rather empty threat.

Also, Utah would not be part of the core group. Not AAU, not a blue blood like OU, and no powerful friends to back them up. They might very well be included, but they're not automatic.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2017 05:58 PM by Nerdlinger.)
12-19-2017 05:56 PM
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GiveEmTheAxe Offline
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Post: #73
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
I wonder how much AAU membership would be emphasized if the four AAU members in the Big West played FBS football. Would they get a look, or would it suddenly seem a lot less important?
12-19-2017 07:39 PM
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RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-12-2017 09:37 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  "Here's a wild idea: what if USC left the Pac-12? Let's think through this"

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...gnment-lol

What if the top 16 football program form their own super league?

USC
UCLA
Stanford
Michigan
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Clemson
Florida State
Alabama
Auburn

Which three schools are going to fit the left seats?
12-19-2017 09:03 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #75
What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 02:37 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

Not to be rude (as my wife is a Coog) but Washington will go wherever the CA schools tell them to go. If the four CA schools and four Texas schools said we are doing this move the rest would be scrambling to join. The easiest two to get are Colorado and Utah as the have no ties to break.

So you have: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Utah in the West. Arizona, Oregon and Washington are given a take it or leave it proposition. My guess is they take it or risk getting replaced by UNLV or Hawaii.

East is harder: Texas, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Colorado approach Nebraska first. If they are in they give Kansas and Oklahoma a take it or leave it offer. Otherwise add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is glad to be in.


Colorado left the B12 to get away from Texas, don’t see them being eager for a reunion, also true for Nebraska. Also, academics are only counted if they can be used as an excuse to deny membership.


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(This post was last modified: 12-19-2017 11:09 PM by Jjoey52.)
12-19-2017 11:05 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #76
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 11:05 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:37 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

Not to be rude (as my wife is a Coog) but Washington will go wherever the CA schools tell them to go. If the four CA schools and four Texas schools said we are doing this move the rest would be scrambling to join. The easiest two to get are Colorado and Utah as the have no ties to break.

So you have: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Utah in the West. Arizona, Oregon and Washington are given a take it or leave it proposition. My guess is they take it or risk getting replaced by UNLV or Hawaii.

East is harder: Texas, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Colorado approach Nebraska first. If they are in they give Kansas and Oklahoma a take it or leave it offer. Otherwise add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is glad to be in.


Colorado left the B12 to get away from Texas, don’t see them being eager for a reunion, also true for Nebraska. Also, academics are only counted if they can be used as an excuse to deny membership.


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Academics do matter. Just ask Maryland and Missouri. And for that matter, West Virginia (why did Pitt get in the ACC over them?) and Texas Tech (the "Tech Problem").

You're mistaking "not the #1 priority" for "doesn't matter."
12-20-2017 01:15 AM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #77
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-12-2017 08:55 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 08:52 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 09:37 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  "Here's a wild idea: what if USC left the Pac-12? Let's think through this"

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...gnment-lol

USC has been in the PAC, through its iterations, for almost 100 years. It's not going to go independent, and it's not going to leave for another conference. This is offseason-level clickbait.

Texas A&M will not join the SEC. Texas won't allow it. Plus, No way will the Big 10 add Maryland.

There's no Pac level equivalent that side of the Great Plains. USC would go independent maybe but that's it.
12-20-2017 02:48 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #78
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 05:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 04:52 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  USC isn’t going anywhere without UCLA, Stanford, Cal. And quite frankly they don’t need to as any University in the country would give their left nut to be associated with those 4 Universities. But you underestimate the snobbery of those schools. They will associate with like minded Universities but not just anyone. They have the power to call the shots especially if paired with Texas, Utah and Colorado which are all AAU schools. Kansas will join in a heart beat.

Just Academically you have:
USC (AAU)
UCLA (AAU)
Cal (AAU)
Stanford (AAU)
Utah (Not AAU)
Texas (AAU)
Texas Tech (Not AAU)
Colorado (AAU).

That is your core group. Then you place a series of calls:
1) Your first call is a discreet call to Kansas and tell them you or Iowa State. You have 24 hours to see if they want to join. Kansas says yes and Now you have Kansas (AAU)
2) Then you tell Arizona you or UNLV. What do you want to do? Arizona has no alternative being in the West. Arizona says yes
Arizona (AAU).
3) Call Oregon, you or Hawaii. What do you want? Oregon say yes
Oregon (AAU)
4) Call Washington and say you or AZ State? Washington has no choice and Washington (AAU)
5) Call Oklahoma and say we want you but not Okie State. See what happens...

You now have almost every AAU school west of the Mississippi, you can start to fill in the east. Now finish with calls first to peer AAU members: Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. See if any want to join this distinguished list of schools... you might get one maybe two. Then you fill in from there ending with 4 Texas schools and 4 non-Texas schools in the east.

Ideally you end with Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M/Houston, TCU, Baylor. With Missouri, Iowa State, New Mexico and Baylor
all options. Worst case is you lose Boren and Oklahoma to SEC but I doubt Oklahoma will choose to associate with Alabama and Mississippi versus the list of Western AAU Flagship schools.

I would think the leadership of these schools would be a little too savvy to be duped by such transparent ultimatums. Oregon, for example, will see their replacement by Hawaii as a rather empty threat.

Also, Utah would not be part of the core group. Not AAU, not a blue blood like OU, and no powerful friends to back them up. They might very well be included, but they're not automatic.

Oregon won’t like it but realistically what is their alternative? Let’s say Oregon and Washington revolt and say we will start our own conference. Who are they going to add? Fresno, SDSU, Reno and SJSU? It’s not happening. Oregon, Washington and Arizona would be in the same position as New Mexico, UNLV and SDSU when the MWC was formed.

And yes Utah would because taking them further presses the hands of Washington, Oregon and Washington.
12-20-2017 03:38 AM
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lew240z Offline
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Post: #79
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-19-2017 11:05 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:37 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:18 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 02:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-15-2017 02:25 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Cal chancellor Carol Christ expresses “three sets of concerns” about the Pac-12’s direction, criticizes the conference office itself

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/14/ca...dium=email

The Name PAC and B-12 schools want more dollars then the PAC TV deal gives them. They also have no viable expansion targets. I could see a Big 12/Pac 12 merge of teams forming a new conference with Tier 3 rights owned by the schools. I could see Texas and USC starting a new 16 team conference both CA and Texas based to compete with the BIG and SEC.

West: USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona
East: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Colorado, Kansas

So K-State, Iowa State, and WVU are kicked to the curb?

ASU, Oregon St, and Wash St, are given their waking papers?

I don't think Washington goes anywhere without State, same for Arizona and ASU.

If anything, I think you'd see the PAC being split up between the XII and the B1G.

Not to be rude (as my wife is a Coog) but Washington will go wherever the CA schools tell them to go. If the four CA schools and four Texas schools said we are doing this move the rest would be scrambling to join. The easiest two to get are Colorado and Utah as the have no ties to break.

So you have: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Utah in the West. Arizona, Oregon and Washington are given a take it or leave it proposition. My guess is they take it or risk getting replaced by UNLV or Hawaii.

East is harder: Texas, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Colorado approach Nebraska first. If they are in they give Kansas and Oklahoma a take it or leave it offer. Otherwise add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and Kansas is glad to be in.


Colorado left the B12 to get away from Texas, don’t see them being eager for a reunion, also true for Nebraska. Also, academics are only counted if they can be used as an excuse to deny membership.[/.


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Wrong. Colorado worked hard to create the Big XII and really wanted Texas to be part of it. Colorado turned down an invitation to the PAC in 1994 to join the Big XII with Texas in 1996. Colorado voted with Texas on every issue. Eventually, Colorado realized they had more in common with the PAC schools and they have more alumni in southern California than in all of the states of the Big XII.
12-20-2017 06:11 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #80
RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-20-2017 03:38 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 05:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(12-19-2017 04:52 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  USC isn’t going anywhere without UCLA, Stanford, Cal. And quite frankly they don’t need to as any University in the country would give their left nut to be associated with those 4 Universities. But you underestimate the snobbery of those schools. They will associate with like minded Universities but not just anyone. They have the power to call the shots especially if paired with Texas, Utah and Colorado which are all AAU schools. Kansas will join in a heart beat.

Just Academically you have:
USC (AAU)
UCLA (AAU)
Cal (AAU)
Stanford (AAU)
Utah (Not AAU)
Texas (AAU)
Texas Tech (Not AAU)
Colorado (AAU).

That is your core group. Then you place a series of calls:
1) Your first call is a discreet call to Kansas and tell them you or Iowa State. You have 24 hours to see if they want to join. Kansas says yes and Now you have Kansas (AAU)
2) Then you tell Arizona you or UNLV. What do you want to do? Arizona has no alternative being in the West. Arizona says yes
Arizona (AAU).
3) Call Oregon, you or Hawaii. What do you want? Oregon say yes
Oregon (AAU)
4) Call Washington and say you or AZ State? Washington has no choice and Washington (AAU)
5) Call Oklahoma and say we want you but not Okie State. See what happens...

You now have almost every AAU school west of the Mississippi, you can start to fill in the east. Now finish with calls first to peer AAU members: Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. See if any want to join this distinguished list of schools... you might get one maybe two. Then you fill in from there ending with 4 Texas schools and 4 non-Texas schools in the east.

Ideally you end with Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M/Houston, TCU, Baylor. With Missouri, Iowa State, New Mexico and Baylor
all options. Worst case is you lose Boren and Oklahoma to SEC but I doubt Oklahoma will choose to associate with Alabama and Mississippi versus the list of Western AAU Flagship schools.

I would think the leadership of these schools would be a little too savvy to be duped by such transparent ultimatums. Oregon, for example, will see their replacement by Hawaii as a rather empty threat.

Also, Utah would not be part of the core group. Not AAU, not a blue blood like OU, and no powerful friends to back them up. They might very well be included, but they're not automatic.

Oregon won’t like it but realistically what is their alternative? Let’s say Oregon and Washington revolt and say we will start our own conference. Who are they going to add? Fresno, SDSU, Reno and SJSU? It’s not happening. Oregon, Washington and Arizona would be in the same position as New Mexico, UNLV and SDSU when the MWC was formed.

And yes Utah would because taking them further presses the hands of Washington, Oregon and Washington.

It's true that UO, UW, and UA would have little in the way of other desirable options in such a scenario. There's no need for the new conference to threaten them as you describe.

As I said, Utah would probably be invited, but UO, UW, and UA would be invited before then, as they would be more desirable to the new conference.

Kansas won't necessarily jump at the offer. They'll feel out the Big Ten and maybe even the SEC before they decide to go all in. If the new conference really wants them, they'll wait.

There's no way, however, that Nebraska, Missouri, or Texas A&M would join the new conference. It would be foolish of them to surrender a good thing with the two most powerful conferences for a questionably stable startup league.

The final lineup would probably be like so:

Definite
California
Stanford
Texas
UCLA
USC

Probably
Arizona
Colorado
Oregon
Texas Tech
Washington

Maybe
Arizona State
Houston
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Utah

Probably not
BYU
Oregon State
Washington State

No
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Any current Big Ten, SEC, or MWC school

So if they max out at 16, you might see:

Big Pac
East: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah
West: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2017 09:31 AM by Nerdlinger.)
12-20-2017 09:20 AM
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