Nerdlinger
Realignment Enthusiast
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I Root For: Realignment!
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RE: What if USC left the Pac-12?
(12-20-2017 03:38 AM)Sactowndog Wrote: (12-19-2017 05:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: (12-19-2017 04:52 PM)Sactowndog Wrote: USC isn’t going anywhere without UCLA, Stanford, Cal. And quite frankly they don’t need to as any University in the country would give their left nut to be associated with those 4 Universities. But you underestimate the snobbery of those schools. They will associate with like minded Universities but not just anyone. They have the power to call the shots especially if paired with Texas, Utah and Colorado which are all AAU schools. Kansas will join in a heart beat.
Just Academically you have:
USC (AAU)
UCLA (AAU)
Cal (AAU)
Stanford (AAU)
Utah (Not AAU)
Texas (AAU)
Texas Tech (Not AAU)
Colorado (AAU).
That is your core group. Then you place a series of calls:
1) Your first call is a discreet call to Kansas and tell them you or Iowa State. You have 24 hours to see if they want to join. Kansas says yes and Now you have Kansas (AAU)
2) Then you tell Arizona you or UNLV. What do you want to do? Arizona has no alternative being in the West. Arizona says yes
Arizona (AAU).
3) Call Oregon, you or Hawaii. What do you want? Oregon say yes
Oregon (AAU)
4) Call Washington and say you or AZ State? Washington has no choice and Washington (AAU)
5) Call Oklahoma and say we want you but not Okie State. See what happens...
You now have almost every AAU school west of the Mississippi, you can start to fill in the east. Now finish with calls first to peer AAU members: Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. See if any want to join this distinguished list of schools... you might get one maybe two. Then you fill in from there ending with 4 Texas schools and 4 non-Texas schools in the east.
Ideally you end with Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M/Houston, TCU, Baylor. With Missouri, Iowa State, New Mexico and Baylor
all options. Worst case is you lose Boren and Oklahoma to SEC but I doubt Oklahoma will choose to associate with Alabama and Mississippi versus the list of Western AAU Flagship schools.
I would think the leadership of these schools would be a little too savvy to be duped by such transparent ultimatums. Oregon, for example, will see their replacement by Hawaii as a rather empty threat.
Also, Utah would not be part of the core group. Not AAU, not a blue blood like OU, and no powerful friends to back them up. They might very well be included, but they're not automatic.
Oregon won’t like it but realistically what is their alternative? Let’s say Oregon and Washington revolt and say we will start our own conference. Who are they going to add? Fresno, SDSU, Reno and SJSU? It’s not happening. Oregon, Washington and Arizona would be in the same position as New Mexico, UNLV and SDSU when the MWC was formed.
And yes Utah would because taking them further presses the hands of Washington, Oregon and Washington.
It's true that UO, UW, and UA would have little in the way of other desirable options in such a scenario. There's no need for the new conference to threaten them as you describe.
As I said, Utah would probably be invited, but UO, UW, and UA would be invited before then, as they would be more desirable to the new conference.
Kansas won't necessarily jump at the offer. They'll feel out the Big Ten and maybe even the SEC before they decide to go all in. If the new conference really wants them, they'll wait.
There's no way, however, that Nebraska, Missouri, or Texas A&M would join the new conference. It would be foolish of them to surrender a good thing with the two most powerful conferences for a questionably stable startup league.
The final lineup would probably be like so:
Definite
California
Stanford
Texas
UCLA
USC
Probably
Arizona
Colorado
Oregon
Texas Tech
Washington
Maybe
Arizona State
Houston
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Utah
Probably not
BYU
Oregon State
Washington State
No
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Any current Big Ten, SEC, or MWC school
So if they max out at 16, you might see:
Big Pac
East: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah
West: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2017 09:31 AM by Nerdlinger.)
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